https://twitter.com/deacondrake22/status/836396776638844930
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
28 FEB Bracket update
Yeah, the UNC/UVA result probably is not that significant to either teams' fortunes.
The Baylor/WVU result on the other hand...
Makes sense. Baylor moves up to the 3 in the West and brings the Tulsa pod with them. Mountaineers go to the 4 in the South and keep Buffalo.
The Baylor/WVU result on the other hand...
Makes sense. Baylor moves up to the 3 in the West and brings the Tulsa pod with them. Mountaineers go to the 4 in the South and keep Buffalo.
Monday, February 27, 2017
Monday Analysis
Gonzaga’s loss took the shine off their numbers, and they
slid behind Villanova for the number 1 overall seed. The bracket flips around to the East, UNC
goes South, Kansas Midwest, and Gonzaga in the West. Oregon has none of the requisite numbers to
displace the Zags, and while Louisville has a great resume, they probably need
to win the ACC tourney to make the 1 line.
The biggest surprise is Butler moving up courtesy of its sweep of Nova. The few bad losses are far enough in the rearview
mirror. Kentucky gets the nod over
Florida and Duke for now. Duke could get
hot at any time. Baylor (Monday’s game
in progress) has slipped from fringe 1 seed to 13th, between UCLA
and FSU.
Other surprises:
Virginia is in good shape for a team having lost four in a
row. Oklahoma State’s numbers are still
22nd in these rankings, but are trending upwards. Xavier is in total freefall. I think I had them as a 3 seed at the
beginning of the month. Every year
somebody has bad luck and collapses… they seem to be that team this year.
Using the methodology explained a few weeks ago, Locks are filtered out from the Basic Rating, refiltered using the Schedule Strength rating, and then the final slots are picked using the Normalized numbers to factor in "who might actually be trending toward winning an NCAA Tourney Game."
Safe Teams:
Teams Enjoying a Collapsing Bubble:
Make no mistake, there are very few years when teams outside
the top 60 RPI are getting serious looks, but the fact people still haven’t
given up on TCU, Texas Tech, KSU, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Alabama, Providence,
Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Clemson, Pitt, Utah… yeah, it’s messy. Vanderbilt was DOA 3 weeks ago. Now they are in without anybody running them
out.
Here is the biggest issue.
Too many programs have afforded themselves the luxury of scheduling 13
home games in advance of their conference slate. The numbers are fooled and then all they have
to do is ride strength of their conference to the finish line. This year there are plenty of decent
mid-major teams; it’s just that few are in the same conferences together. Typically the MWC, MVC, Horizon, C-USA, and
CAA have 3 or 4 decent bubble teams propping up its softer teams. This year, either the those teams in the 2-4
slots are weak, or the bottom of the conference has been so bad the top two
teams get virtually no credit for 20 point wins.
So these guys are winning just enough to keep those
mid-majors at bay, until we start seeing some March upsets:
Maryland, Michigan State, Marquette, Arkansas, Northwestern
I could throw Michigan in there as well, but their computer
numbers are actually quite good. Their
RPI had been dragging them down till last week.
Even 2 bad losses will only push them down a line or two. These 5 are joined by Illinois State and VCU
as the two other non-power conference teams that are safe (St. Mary’s and
Cincinnati are the other two, with WSU, Dayton, Zags, and SMU projected to grab
auto bids).
Here are the teams I think are going to have to play their
way in from here:
Virginia Tech, California, Xavier, USC
If I were USC, I would not consider losing any more
games. They still look good from an RPI
perspective, but their wins are Charmin soft, and not frequent of late. Xavier has been discussed, and Cal is
one-dimensional and saw their ticket punch snapped away by Dillon Brooks last
week. VT is the safest of these guys and
with two jobs in Blacksburg can jump ahead of Miami.
LAST FOUR IN:
Syracuse, Rhode Island, Vanderbilt, Houston
The Orange are probably going to end up staying home… just a
gut feeling for last season’s fortune.
They have the wins, but can’t win away from the Dome, and will likely
draw a hungry VT or Miami team. URI is
still on life support after beating VCU at home… not all that impressive. Houston still needs a signature win to hold
off a run by one of the first 8 out.
Vanderbilt actually has a 6-4 record against the top 50. They are like Syracuse, but with a much more
difficult path, with both UK and UF this week.
A split may get them in, despite 15 losses. Likely they will be heading home as well.
* Note: to meet seeding criteria, Vandy was given the last
bye and USC was rotated to the play-in game.
FIRST FOUR OUT
Providence
Yeah, a solid argument can be made over any of the last 4
teams, plus USC. Who would have guessed
the Ed Cooley could reload that quickly, but they have two soft games to get to
a likely 4th place finish. They are likely going to work their way into an 11 seed. Today, just not enough there.
Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Kansas State
People keep talking up the Pirates, and I like them, but the
numbers don’t lie. At best, they can work
into the play-in game. More than likely,
they need a shot at Providence in the BE Tourney to eliminate the
competition. Xavier is vulnerable too. Wake still has not gotten a signature win,
and Louisville could be that one scalp they need to get them committee’s buy
in. 14 losses is a lot, but 15 is
certain death. KSU is 2-8 down the
stretch, and games against TCU and TTU are not going to save their profile, as
both of them are well outside the Top 50 RPI.
NEXT FOUR OUT
Indiana, Georgia, BYU, Illinois
I’ll admit, I wasn’t even tracking Illinois and Vandy until
yesterday… they were not even on the bubble… after 3 straight road wins, they
are officially the 76th team.
If any of the following mid majors lose in the conference tourneys, they
jump into the line ahead of them:
Princeton, Nevada, Vermont, Arlington, Monmouth, East
Tennessee State
If MTSU loses in the C-USA tourney, they will likely still
be a 10 seed. If UNCW loses in the CAA
semifinals or finals, they will be a 12 seed or play-in candidate. Nevada has the best opportunity to play their
way to a third at-large caliber bubble team based on SoS, but none of those
games will amount to a top 50 win.
Monmouth, Vermont, and Princeton will have their RPI obliterated with a
loss… very unlikely, despite favorable computer numbers, any of them get
serious consideration.
Labels:
#1 seeds,
Brackets,
Bubble Teams,
Providence
27 FEB Bracket
Lots of movement, several teams kicked to the fringes or out all together... the state of Rhode Island makes up the last team in and first team out.
Wednesday, February 22, 2017
FEB 21st Bracket- Doesn’t include Tuesday’s games.
The top four seeds stay the same, though Villanova and
Gonzaga are basically identical, and UNC and Kansas are pretty close as
well. Nova can play their way back to
the top seed, and UNC can pretty easily end up the #3 overall. The bracket will realign with Nova in the
East… for now this is acceptable.
Kentucky move back to the 2 line… barely. They still don’t look game to stay ahead of
Florida.
As this bubble l;itterally collapse on itself with a lack of
mid-majors and sub .500 BCS teams imploding and crapping the bed on the road,
the play in games shift back a seed line to accommodate for the fact that a
14/15 loss Syracuse team with 2 road/neutral wins does not belong ahead of
numerous 26-30 win mid-major champions.
LAST FOUR IN: Michigan State, Houston, Syracuse,
Alabama. This is about as close as the
SEC can get to a 5th team.
Georgia can’t beat anybody significant, and nobody else can string
together 3 wins in a row. UNCW and MTSU
could do the committee a favor and lose in their conference tourneys to provide
a few stronger options.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Rhode Island, TCU, Georgia Tech, Seton
Hall. TCU and URI really belong in the
field, but bad recent losses have them in the penalty box. Georgia Tech and Seton Hall are a barrage of
potential, but just put too many questionable losses out there.
NEXT FOUR OUT: Indiana, Texas Tech, Georgetown,
Clemson. A couple of dumpster dives into
the RPI here with Indiana and Texas Tech.
Both need a huge win streak of Top 50 and road variety to prove
anything. Clemson and Georgetown have
the strength of schedule, but man, Clemson hit the wall so hard they could put
Humpty Dumpty back together again. ETSU jumped into the field over Chatt and Furman.
Fun Matchups!
Dayton vs Xavier- Battle of I-75! Xavier is reeling right now and probably
didn’t expect to be the lower seed here.
Saint Mary’s vs Princeton (in Sacto): Virtual home pod for
the Gaels, but Princeton can compete and the crawling tempo.
Wichita State vs Kansas State: KSU can beat anyone, anywhere,
on any night. Shockers have not had many
opportunities and the winner of this battle for the Sunflower State could be a
Final Four darkhorse.
Wisconsin vs Vermont: Wisconsin has shown they do not have
the depth and the Cats could expose that.
Notre Dame vs Marquette: Two Coach K prodigies, different
generations. The over under here could
over 170.
ACC
Locks- 6: UNC, Louisville, Duke, FSU, UVA*, Notre Dame
Good Shape- 2: Miami, VT (they can exhale now)
Bubble- 4: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Clemson (probably
finished), Wake
There is no way that 11 teams can get in. There just isn’t enough wins out there. If GT and Cuse split, it probably eliminates
both of them (especially if they can’t harvest road wins). Wake needs to win out and can change their lack
of good wins..
Big 12
Locks- 3: KU, Baylor, WVU
Good Shape-2: OSU, ISU
Bubble- 3: KSU, TCU, Texas Tech
TTU has a lot of ground to cover… their profile is weak mid
major, and now that they are way behind in the standings… Beard, Dixon, and Weber have done some great
triage on some hurting [rograms.
Big East
Locks- 3: Nova, Butler, Creighton
Good Shape- 1: Xavier (yikes)
Bubble- 4: Marquette, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Providence
Xavier needs to right the ship soon or they could easily
fall into double digit bubble trouble.
Marquette still has work to do, and the Hoyas and Friars are all but
dead.
Big 10
Locks- 3: Purdue, Wisconsin, MD
Good Shape- 3: NW, Minnesota, Michigan
Bubble- 2: MSU, Indiana
Hoosiers RPI is probably too much to overcome, unless they
beat Purdue twice down the stretch.
Crazy to think they could knock off both UNC AND Kansas and stagger into
an NIT road game. MSU probably can’t
afford a split in their final 4 games… Nebraska and Illinois are not quality
wins.
PAC 12
Locks- 4: Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, USC
Bubble- 1: California
Just commentary, but not sure I get the Markelle Fultz
hype. The PAC 12 is mid-major quality
outside the top 3, and he could only help put up 2 league wins? The Huskies have killed TCU’s RPI!
SEC
Locks- 2: UK, Florida
Good Shape- 2: USC, Arkansas
Bubble- 1: Alabama
Ole Miss and Auburn have wins, Tennessee has RPI, Georgia
has broken hearts… none are even that close.
A-10
Locks- 2: Dayton, VCU
Bubble- 1: URI
WCC
Locks- 2: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
AAC
Locks- 2: Cincinnati, SMU
Bubble- 1: Houston
MVC
Locks- 2: WSU, ISU
I don’t get the anti-WSU/ISU rhetoric coming out of
Bristol. The Shockers have 4 losses, all
to teams projected to be in the tournament.
Sure, LSU and OU being among the worst teams in the country have hurt
their RPI, and the bottom heavy MVC hasn’t helped. The Redbirds have won 16 of 17, but their
schedule is significantly weaker. The
split with Tulsa hurts. Murray State
hurts. The committee will probably punk
the loser to the play-in game, and if it’s the Shockers, they can make a solid
run. Regardless, a 6 loss ISU team
should be in.
Other Leagues
Locks- 1: MTSU
Good Shape- 1: UNCW
Bubble- 5: Nevada, Vermont, Monmouth, Arlington, ETSU
These are in no particular order. MTSU can afford a loss or two. UNCW cannot and would be smart at least make
the CAA semifinals, losing to Charleston.
Of the other 5, Monmouth is the only one with a solid paper case, but
Memphis falling apart has not helped.
They need Princeton to be a Top 50 team… man, that USC game would have
been their free pass.
52 locks (30 plus one bid leagues), 11 in good shape, and 22
teams vying for 5 slots. MADNESS.
Friday, February 17, 2017
Coach of the Year Candidates
It is impossible to argue with the job Mark Few has done in
Spokane this year. Even with a loss in
the WCC tourney, they could easily be the number one overall seed out of a
non-power conference. The reason that I
am not putting him on the top of my Coach of the Year short list is because he
is basically doing the same thing he has done every year, and the Bulldogs
continue to get results. He is not
necessarily exceeding expectations given the resources and competition faced.
1.
Andy Enfield, USC: Funny story. When I was contemplating Enfield as a
candidate, I was floored to realize that he is now in his fourth year at USC
(not second- man FGCU seems like it was yesterday) and that he inherited the
program from years of Kevin O’Neill damage, not just Tim Floyd fallout. Holy crap!
Has USC been that anonymous for this long that the last 10 years are a
total blur? Was Mayo/Young the last time
they really had any hope? I pegged them
to finish 5th again, but this is the 3rd best team in the
conference, except in those rare instance UCLA decides to play both ways.
2.
Mike White, Florida: Billy Donovan left the
program in decent shape, but this was expected to be a down year for Florida,
likely sitting on the fringes of NCAA contention. They are the best team in the SEC this
year. Maybe not the most talented team,
but certainly the most effective team.
The Egbunu injury may take away any Final Four prospects, but this will
remain a Top 15 team despite playing just 8 home games to date.
3.
Grant McCasland, Arkansas State: Remember when
ASU was good? Me either. They scheduled
ambitiously and were rewarded with a 2-3 mark against the Top 100
non-conference… they would love another shot at Arlington.
4.
Scott Drew, Baylor: Like, literally spitting in
the face of adversity. He has kept a
talented, but certainly not elite, team focused amid a brutal schedule and
negative publicity… many people want to see Baylor fail, but certainly not the
basketball team.
5.
Kermit Davis, MTSU: The Blue Raiders encore to
throttling Michigan State last year has been to go 5-1 against the Top 100
(kenpom) and look like the best mid-major program nobody talks about. It would be a travesty for a 5 loss MTSU team
to miss out on the Dance if they get upset by decent ODU, Rice or LaTech teams.
6.
Mark Few, Gonzaga
7.
Bob Huggins, West Virginia: Just when you think
the game has passed him by, Huggy Bear grabs a drink and takes you to
school. The shorter shot clock
encourages teams to press more to prevent teams from getting into their
offense. However, most teams that press
run standard configurations that can be exploited for 3 on 2 breaks, or pick up
fouls taking poor angles. The
Mountaineers broke many a weak-willed teams with disciplined reaching and
shifting to force horizontal movement, limiting the ball handler’s vision to
take the next pass. Players rotate
quickly and everyone plays free safety when it’s their turn. Huggins doesn’t have a deep lineup, but gets
top seed performance when it clicks.
8.
John Becker, Vermont: The Cats brought back a
solid 3rd place squad, but wasn’t expected to run the table like
this. Unfortunately, they missed all 4
opportunities to take a Top 50 win to secure their at large spot, but Becker’s
name will be at the top of many coaching short lists.
Honorable Mentions: Cuonzo Martin, Rick Pitinos (both), Brad
Underwood, Frank Martin, Dana Altman
February 17 Poll
Moving Out: UNC Wilmington, Butler, South Carolina, Maryland
- Gonzaga
- Villanova
- Kansas
- Oregon
- Florida
- Baylor
- North Carolina
- Louisville
- Duke
- Saint Mary’s
- Arizona
- UCLA
- Kentucky
- Purdue
- Florida State
- Southern Methodist
- Wichita State
- West Virginia
- Virginia
- Cincinnati
- Wisconsin
- Creighton
- Illinois State
- Middle Tennessee State
- Notre Dame
Moving In: Florida, Southern Methodist, Wichita State, Middle Tennessee State
How are they out?: Maryland, Southern California, Butler, Dayton, Vermont, Iowa State
Man, I feel like Wisconsin should be doing so much more...
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