Tick... Tick... Tick...

Damn, I should never sleep next to my watch... that thing is loud!

Nats Surge in Harper Sweepstakes

The Royals looked ready to go into September in the driver's seat, but one ill-fated slide later and the Nats' offense is drowning in its own waste. Barring another late season hot streak, the first pick in the 2010 draft is Washington's to lose.

When looking at a player who seems to have freakish talents, one always has to wonder, "Is this too good to be true." The legend of Bryce Harper allows us to know what would happen if LeBron James and Sidd Finch ever crossed DNA. He's A-Rod without the steroids.

Though, given that Strasburg came with a 15 M price tag, what will an everyday catcher with revolutionary hitting skills field? Scott Boras had to get Strasburg signed, for his value clearly peaked this year with the Aztecs. Harper, on the other hand, will continue to grow and amaze. I cannot imagine them settling for less than 30 M. Can the Nats deal into this window? Will Selig even allow the Nats to hand over the keys to the money bin?

Keith Law puts a realistic ceiling on Harper at Joe Mauer. Being that he is playing in Minneapolis in a weak division, you may not be all that familiar with Mauer's exploits this year. Well... Mauer's OPS+ is 180... followed by Youkilis in the AL at 148. He is putting up Pujols numbers from the catcher's position in the AL. He has clearly been the most valuable player in baseball even though he debuted May 1.

Mauer is going to be free agent eligible soon and will likely command 20-30 Million per year. He is likely peaking, as few catchers without b-acne improve after the age of 30, and there is no way the Twins can fit his price tag onto the balance sheet. So the question the Nats need to pose going into this offseason? Is Joe Mauer, at 8 years 200 million, a better value than Bryce Harper at 5 years 40 million?

We know the draft is broken and Scott Boras is still out to make a point. Is Harper worth caving the system? It depends on how much hype you can buy...

Not Really News, but Stephen Strasburg Has Signed

The staff here at The Bombs will never promise to break news, as bedtime often comes before even Nats Xtra ends, let alone deadlines for signing picks and firing managers.

In any event, Boras got his record-breaking deal, Strasburg gets to play baseball, the Nats front office receives a gold star from their peers for working out a deal, and The Bombs would have won on The Price is Right with their estimation of the final contract value.

I'm not sure this makes the next Blogger Day less or more intriguing.

Now you know the Nats are hoping to climb out of the cellar to avoid the Bryce Harper fiasco next year... who smells 20+?

Every Player is His Own Entitiy

I hate how people say that Jordan Zimmermann's tragic MRI diagnosis is going to give Scott Boras additional leverage going into the final week of negotiations. Stephen Strasburg's desire to play major league baseball in 2010 has nothing to with the amount of damage to Flash's ulnar collateral ligament. Jordan Zimmermann is not a party to these negotiations, nor is Dr. James Andrews.

The only parties that really have any bearing in these talks are Strasburg, Boras, Kasten, and Lerner, Inc. And you have to give Kasten credit for keeping it that way, leaving the media and the blogosphere in the dark.

What may impact the Strasburg signing is Washington's decision to waive and keep Cristian Guzman's 2010 salary. Cristian Guzman and his limited defense are not impacting these negotiations, just the money committed to him.

Remember, Stephen Strasburg had a year of college eligibility left. He chose to leave to cash in on his maximum value. He does himself no good turning down the Nationals to play Independent ball. I think Scott Boras may be selling his prowess of moving Luke Hochevar up from the #40 pick with the Dodgers to KC taking him #1 the following year (a comically stupid move by KC, but hey, I guess they got their guy). While Hochevar has not been a bust yet, he is still barely league average, and by losing a year of his career to stay out of ML ball, he upped his offer from 3 to 5 million. The only way this amount of money makes any impact to the lifetime earnings of a major league pitcher is if he never makes it to arbitration. A league average pitcher, like Scott Olsen, will make close to 3 million at arbitration. By not holding out, he reaches this threshold sooner, reaches free agency sooner, and extends his career one extra season. If Adam Eaton can cash out a 3 year 24 million dollar contract, any league average free agent can grab 5 million here and there, and last I checked, 5 million is greater than 2 million.

If Strasburg signs, barring injury, he will have his free agent clock ticking on May 1st. The Nats have no reason to keep him off the roster as he will sell tickets. If he lands somewhere else, that remains up in the air. The big bonus is great, but holding out for a bigger one only pays off if the pitcher doesn't make the bigs.

When a no-no is a no-no.

Well, Stephen Strasburg has gone and done it this time. The response here in DC has ranged from euphoric to orgasmic. Sydney Crosby was the last prospect in any sport that I can remember being gushed over like this. Overnight, he went from being the top prospect to the ONLY prospect. And it is hard to argue the kid's stuff.

But shame on Stephen Strasburg. Shame on him for getting everybody all riled up. First of all, if you think you are the consensus number 1 pick in the draft, is it really fair to be beating on cadets from the Air Force Academy? Most high schools could take 1 out of 3 from the Falcons. I know it is a conference game, but why not save that type of performance for when the cards are really on the table in the NCAA regionals? Who knows what must be going through Scott Boras' head right now.

College pitchers, while almost always more prepared to step into the show within a couple seasons, tend to be a funny breed. Making the jump requires a mental toughness that he may not have. Pitching in the Mountain West Conference against student-athletes, facing maybe two to three bats capable of finding their way to high-A ball (or Air Force, with zero), is light years away from facing guys who are doing it for their livelihood. It is far from a sure thing that he will be able to help the Nats right away. So few top power prospects pan out; I root Justin Verlander every time, hoping he can harness his stuff before his arm falls off. I just can't see how 102 mph is sustainable for a starting pitcher.

It is a tough call, and the scout really have to get into his to see if this is the guy that can push himself and take care of himself. Can he be a team guy, even though he might never have to play for another contract, knowing his ticket to the majors is punched without having to earn it in AA and AAA?

In the end, the price has to be right, too. Even Johan Santana and other proven commodities have a market value; remember how foolish the Yankees looked dragging Roger Clemens out of retirement for his king's ransom. The timing of his gem could not have been more perfect from a financial standpoint. From a player development and draft perspective, maybe not so much. The pressure will be insurmountable to draft and sign Strasburg, and the pressure will be insurmountable to live up to the expectations of being Scott Boras' prized thoroughbred. Mark Teixeira has struggled in New York, and the general history of top drafted pitchers is daunting.

The money and the makeup.