Inside the Park Homeruns and More

The Nats were drowning in quicksand. Quicksand, as you may remember from the Reeves epic "The Replacements" is when a team continues to self-destruct at the slightest hint of adversity. The team was, and still is, teetering on the bring of becoming quickly irrelevant and forgotten. Players had come into this season expecting to win, and were granted with a brief taste of success. Of course, the Nationals are not a deep talented team equipped to remain in the Wild Card hunt all year. However, as a professional athlete in any sport, the paramount goal is to win the competition, leave it all on the field.

The 2008 and 2009 Washington Nationals knew out of the gate that they sucked... the players themselves couldn't pinpoint why they sucked, and nobody wanted to buy into Manny Acta's philosophies, so nobody improved. This season, the character issues improved, and despite a slow start, the Nats won a few games and found themselves promoted from laughingstock to darkhorse. With the change in expectations will also come a sense of urgency.

There are a few ways to look at Nyjer Morgan's recent adventures. First, he is not hitting well, and therefore not on base as often. Not being on base as often has pressed him into stealing a high percentage of the time, thereby tipping his hand on opportunities. Nyjer Morgan has not been contributing much from an offensive standpoint. Morgan has, until recently, been a reliable, rangy outfielder. However, with both pitching and offense struggling for a team losing a grip on its position in the standings, Tony Plush tightened up and tried to make plays that weren't quite there. And while spiking the glove in frustration is unprofessional, it exemplifies that he knew how important making that catch was. Nobody is "showing up" their teammates here, and Nyjer Morgan is more embarrassed than he would have been had the ball careened off his head for a home run. Had he turned and picked up the ball and tossed it in, it is likely that neither run would have scored on the play. Benching isn't the answer here...

But they need to stay focused. Ryan Zimmerman had great all around game, except for a heinous baserunning blunder that created a double play and allowed the O's to walk Willingham with Guzman on second. I get frustrated when our co-ed rec softball team makes these mental mistakes. The worst thing you can do on offense is make an out. Outs are precious commodities, and at that point in the 8th inning, Zim needs to know that they only have a few left. With the lead, he needs to run a little more defensively, and hopefully the next guy plates him. Yes, Zimmerman has probably been stranded at 3rd base a high percentage of the time than anyone in the league (seriously, I think I may find a way to look this up), but trying to score from first on a line drive from center only works if you don't sprint past Guzman on second.

Fortunately, none of this mularkey amounted to much, as Walker, Burnett, Clippard, and Capps were lights out in the rain, retiring eleven of the twelve batters faced. Clippard and Burnett have been relegated to "second-banana" status with the arrival of Drew Storen, but proved today that it does take 25 working parts to win ballgames consistently.

The Nationals escaped the quicksand this time, and now everyone holds their breath for the arrival of the US Air shuttle from Syracuse, the cargo of which is the future of the franchise.


* Keanu Reeves, American Visionary, Time Traveler, Failed and Redeemed Quarterback, Space Contortionist, and Eff-Bee-Eye Agent

What We Have Here is Called a "Winning Streak"

Perfect timing too, as the Strasburg contract drive should be wrapping up soon, yet no word is coming from either side. People would be getting a little anxious if they hadn't been distracted by all that success on the field.

So how have the Nats been able to pull of this run? Their bats have been quite lively, but they were still getting shelled while scoring six runs per game back in May. The key has been timing. The Clippard bases loaded Houdini act is a great example, but check out a couple of examples from last night.

Third inning, bases loaded, two out, and Cody Ross rips a hot shot at 3rd base. Lannan had made great pitch, so Ros hit the ball with some interesting topspin, and the ball comes up on Zimmerman and gets away. Unless the ball is fielded cleanly, this is probably a run against any other corner infielder in the league. Zimmerman recovers, bare hands the ball off the infield grass and flicks it upside down to Dunn to beat Ross by a half step at first. Insane play that saved one run for sure, but the way the Nats have played this year, those always compounded into big innings for the opponent.

Fifth inning, runners on the corners, nobody out, second best hitter in the National League up. This also has the makings of a big inning. Lannan does what he does best, throwing a tempting, well-located first pitch that Ramirez rolls into a 6-4-3, scoring the run, but clearing the bases.

Sixth inning, runners on the corners, one out. Emilio Bonafacio is very difficult to double up, and is clearly looking to slap the ball the other way. One run is imminent, except Lannan decides that it is time to roll out two of his six strikeouts to terminate the rally.

This doesn't include the sterling defense turned in night after night by Nyjer Morgan in center, nor does it include MacDougal getting three full count out to collect the save. The have not improved much; they are just doing a better job of playing to their Pythagorean run differential, which is not worst in the league.

The Marlins had owned the Nats for two seasons, right up until the 8th inning Tuesday. I have a hard time believing everything has suddenly changed, but as long as the players do, run with it.

"It knew it was going to be bad when I was nominated. I did not know it would be this bad."

That quote from Gutter's Senate hearings in PCU more or less sums up today's findings.

Dave from NNN alerted me to the Nats struggles with runners on last week, but today Chico laid it all out.

The Nats flat out do not hit with runners on. Some of it is bad luck, hitting line drives at people, but every team has a little of that. The Nats struggle the most in the following three areas:

* picked off/caught stealing

* Ground into double plays

* Called third strikes

First, it should be noted that these are execution issues. Nobody needs to have the God given physical tools of... (searching for a player who used his God given tools without chemically enhancing them)... Tony Gwynn to avoid those three bullet points above.

The Nats get picked off way more often than they should, and this is particularly disconcerting considering they just started giving base runners the green light upon the arrival of Nyjer Morgan. Before you say that this doesn't affect their poor hitting in the clutch, getting picked off first does change the dynamics of the at bat if there is less than two outs, and if there is two outs, well, phooey. The Nats have stolen 46 bases and been caught 26 times, a sterling 63.8% success rate. The NL average is 71.4% on 17% more attempt. As you have witnessed, the Nats have been killing many rallies before the hitter has a chance to do anything about it.

The Nats ground into 16% more double plays than the league average. Right now, that is playing to about one per week. It may not seem like much, but when Zimm and Kearns reach for those fastballs low and away, they kill any chance for a big inning. One more big inning per week probably adds 6-10 wins to the season total. Both Zimm and Kearns started the season driving the ball into the air, but each hit mid-season (or in Kearns case, mid-career) slumps. Zimm has been hitting better of late, but once again has aspirations of leading the league. Simple situational hitting teaches batters how to avoid these by laying off and going the other way. Wil Nieves doesn't hit the ball more than 200 feet, but rarely puts himself into a 6-4-3 because he will hit opposite field on balls pitched to the outer half.

The Nats are fourth in the NL with 795 strikeouts. They parlay this by drawing the second most walks in the NL. They are a patient team, which gets a lot of runners on first base, and is reflected in their team OBP. However, the Nats take take 30% of their overall strikeouts looking, which of course leads the league. Adam Dunn is one of the main culprits, as he lays back and waits for a mistake to crush. But this doesn't excuse the number of other hitters for not playing more aggressively with two strikes. The Nats have worked the pitch count well this season (2nd in pitches per PA in the NL) but this is not helping them with runners in scoring position and the pitcher attacking the zone to prevent walking in the run.

Points two and three may contradict slightly, as being passive may lead to more strikeouts looking, while a more aggressive approach may lead to more double plays. Other successful teams find a balance, or lean to one extreme or the other. The Nats somehow play both extremes, which is a recipe for losing baseball.