The Curious Case of Kansas State

I have not seen enough to feel comfortable stating Kansas State was one of the 8 best teams in the Big 12.  That was my line at the last poll, and nothing had changed going into the Bracket published last week.  Since then, they dropped a very difficult West Virginia team to get that elusive Top 50 win.

All the numbers point to a single digit seed, but the results to me still do not add up.  Don’t get me wrong, this has been a great coaching job by Bruce Weber to even be having this discussion.  The discouraging part was the 346^th ranked non-conference schedule.  Sure, it is not necessarily the Wildcats’ fault several of their opponents cratered (BC, WAZZU, UW-GB), but it puts them at the bottom of the pecking order in their own conference, when comparing resumes with IAST, OKST, TTU, OU, and TCU.  Their only chance at a Top 100 win was MD, and they just missed.  They needed the WVU game to prove they were not a bottom half team getting fat on a stacked league.

Right now, I see a lot to like about the Wildcats.  They shoot lights out, they protect the ball, and they laid haymaker after haymaker on the Jayhawks at the Phog before succumbing to a great team on the road.  They have experience and really make the opponent work for a look.  They do not give away cheap points.

What I don’t like is that they are a six-man rotation.  This gives them no margin of error with injuries or foul trouble on the road.  It makes it difficult to keep your best guys fresh to win a close game in the final minute (which has lead to a couple damning win probability graphs).  Their foul shooting fails to meet expectations.  The upcoming Tennessee game only marginally helps them in that it is on the road; the Vols are only sliding downward the rest of the year.

Alas, they are a better team than VCU, and if I had to do the bracket again right now, that would be an easy correction.  They probably have a higher ceiling than TCU as well, and will likely sneak into the Thursday field.  But then again, if they up and vanish completely, I won't be shocked.

A Comment on the Mountaineers Historic Night

On Monday, West Virginia forced Manhattan into 40 turnovers... yes, once per minute, a confused Jasper was making a poor decision to lead to points the other way.  Numerous folks were quick to laud Bob Huggins and his players for the accomplishment and what this performance could mean for them going forward.

Well, probably nothing.  23 minutes was the most minutes any player logged, which means that no singular player is responsible for the disruption Monday night.

The argument against this assertion is that they also forced 34 against New Hampshire, 26 against Mississippi Valley State, and 21 against Mount Saint Mary's.  While I like New Hampshire in a weak America East this year, that is a slate of crap to pray on at home.  They did a good job splitting their games over the break (blowing out Illinois isn't THAT impressive this year, and losing to Temple, eh?), but the real test will be this weekend in Charlottesville.  Without the benefit of home court whistles getting swallowed, my guess is that their insane 35% turnover per possession rate begins to regress toward the mean.  Right now, the Mountaineers shooting defense is just average and has relied on pure pressure and benefit of the doubt from officials.  A stronger team like UVA will not put themselves in those situations, and if they do, their is a good chance the whistle will bail them out.

I still like West Virginia for a high seed and are legitimately the second best team in the Big 12, but they have a lot of room for improvement.  The turnover rate is more indicative of the quality of opponent.