Knowing Your Role

Winning teams are not necessarily full of superstar free agents and five-tool freaks. In fact, some of the best teams, the ones that stick together for several years, thrive because there are players on their roster, spots number twenty-four and twenty-five, who know that they are not there for the limelight. They are there to do one or two things and to do them well.

Take the Yankees eight year run from 1996 to 2003. They won three World Series and lost two more. They built their dynasty from the inside, hitting on a few potential Hall of Famers in Posada, Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, and Rivera. They acquired through free agency several quality players, but nobody who would be considered a superstar outside of Clemens: Martinez, Brosius, O'Neill, Knoblauch, Wells, Cone. Later, they began to stockpile every top free agent, starting with Mussina, Giambi, Brown, etc. However, that lineup can only get a team to the playoffs. Once there, executing flawlessly and eliminating mistakes for five or seven game series wins the title. Specialized role players, like Ramiro Mendoza, Mike Stanton, Luis Sojo, Shane Spencer, Chad Curtis, Joe Girardi, these are the guys that make a difference winning a championship because they know what role they serve on the team.

The one thing that Riggleman has been able to do is establish his player's roles. Many fans feel bad that Willie Harris' is losing playing time since Morgan's acquisition. Willie has always been a team player and has adjusted well to his new role of defensive stopper. Just as a basketball needs a versatile sixth man to provide a spark off the bench, baseball teams need a versatile glove to one or two extra balls a week to take the pressure off the pitchers. Riggleman has even carved out adequate roles for AAAA guys like Anderson Hernandez, Austin Kearns, and Ronnie Belliard. While Dunn and Zimmerman get most of the headlines, most of them warranted, the difference between these 5-4 wins after the All-Star break and those ugly 8-5 losses back in May are the ability of pitchers out of the bullpen to get outs and players fielding their positions.

Guys like Willie Harris can still contribute greatly to winning baseball, even on a team as lost as the Nats. Truth be told, judging by his career numbers, if Willie Harris is a team's everyday outfielder, that team probably isn't playoff caliber. But if he can come in and run down a ball in foul territory to which Willingham may not have reached, or get from first to third on a little slap single, those little things will make the difference a couple days a week. Some players, Lastings Milledge, for example, either couldn't or wouldn't execute these.

The Nats have found a few good building blocks in Lannan, Z1 and Z2, and while they are still a few years away from contending, can make strides in 2010 if they are not greedy and bring in the right players this offseason. It is difficult to entice players to come to a franchise as maligned as Washington's, so the front office really needs to shore up their loose ends (manager, GM, etc) by October.

What We Have Here is Called a "Winning Streak"

Perfect timing too, as the Strasburg contract drive should be wrapping up soon, yet no word is coming from either side. People would be getting a little anxious if they hadn't been distracted by all that success on the field.

So how have the Nats been able to pull of this run? Their bats have been quite lively, but they were still getting shelled while scoring six runs per game back in May. The key has been timing. The Clippard bases loaded Houdini act is a great example, but check out a couple of examples from last night.

Third inning, bases loaded, two out, and Cody Ross rips a hot shot at 3rd base. Lannan had made great pitch, so Ros hit the ball with some interesting topspin, and the ball comes up on Zimmerman and gets away. Unless the ball is fielded cleanly, this is probably a run against any other corner infielder in the league. Zimmerman recovers, bare hands the ball off the infield grass and flicks it upside down to Dunn to beat Ross by a half step at first. Insane play that saved one run for sure, but the way the Nats have played this year, those always compounded into big innings for the opponent.

Fifth inning, runners on the corners, nobody out, second best hitter in the National League up. This also has the makings of a big inning. Lannan does what he does best, throwing a tempting, well-located first pitch that Ramirez rolls into a 6-4-3, scoring the run, but clearing the bases.

Sixth inning, runners on the corners, one out. Emilio Bonafacio is very difficult to double up, and is clearly looking to slap the ball the other way. One run is imminent, except Lannan decides that it is time to roll out two of his six strikeouts to terminate the rally.

This doesn't include the sterling defense turned in night after night by Nyjer Morgan in center, nor does it include MacDougal getting three full count out to collect the save. The have not improved much; they are just doing a better job of playing to their Pythagorean run differential, which is not worst in the league.

The Marlins had owned the Nats for two seasons, right up until the 8th inning Tuesday. I have a hard time believing everything has suddenly changed, but as long as the players do, run with it.

Startling Comeback

You just never can tell with these Nationals. Just when they are pegged as being a poor clutch team, especially in the later innings, they explode for a six run comeback against a Cy Young candidate.

Go figure. I have to say, this is the streakiest team I have EVER seen.

Nationals Baseball

Where .212 career SLG hitters go yard.

Great Relievers

* Converted to reliever

* Deceptive delivery

* Devastating changeup

* Closer mentality

Who am I talking about? Trevor Hoffman or Tyler Clippard? See, you didn't know right away. Clippard was swapped from the Yankees last season, and the organization immediately began transitioning him to a reliever. After dominating AAA competition, he has stepped into broken bullpen and taken the ball in almost every type of situation. The results have been nearly 3 K/BB and a sub 1.00 WHIP. To say he has been the Nats best reliever is like saying Teddy is the worst racing president. A decision going forward will have to be made as to who is going to close games next season. While I would prefer such a valuable commodity not get pigeonholed into a role that may not see many opportunities, away from other high leverage situations, Clippard belongs in the closer's role.

Hell, Hoffman was even drafted as a SS, suffered a couple serious arm injuries, and has continued to own the 9th. MacDougal is a great comeback story, but going forward, Clippard should own the 9th when possible.

Swipeophobia

Alan Wiggins, who stole 66 bases in 1983, is rolling over in his grave.

Fact: Other than Nyjer Morgan (who was traded to the Nats a month ago), the Washington Nationals have only ONE player with over 5 stolen bases. In fact, there are a handful of individual players who have roughly the same amount of steals as the Nats' entire ballclub (Ellsbury, Crawford, Bourn, Upton, etc.)

Who's basecoaching this timid team, Jay Hilgenberg?! It's not like making the 3rd out while attempting to steal second base is going to result in lost momentum during a crucial point in the wild-card hunt.

Nats, your fans desperately want to see you begin playing like you've got nothing left to lose! Because.......well.......you don't!!! And if you don't do it for the single-digit thousands that still show up to Granite City along the Anacostia, do it for Alan. C'mon, look at that smile.

"It knew it was going to be bad when I was nominated. I did not know it would be this bad."

That quote from Gutter's Senate hearings in PCU more or less sums up today's findings.

Dave from NNN alerted me to the Nats struggles with runners on last week, but today Chico laid it all out.

The Nats flat out do not hit with runners on. Some of it is bad luck, hitting line drives at people, but every team has a little of that. The Nats struggle the most in the following three areas:

* picked off/caught stealing

* Ground into double plays

* Called third strikes

First, it should be noted that these are execution issues. Nobody needs to have the God given physical tools of... (searching for a player who used his God given tools without chemically enhancing them)... Tony Gwynn to avoid those three bullet points above.

The Nats get picked off way more often than they should, and this is particularly disconcerting considering they just started giving base runners the green light upon the arrival of Nyjer Morgan. Before you say that this doesn't affect their poor hitting in the clutch, getting picked off first does change the dynamics of the at bat if there is less than two outs, and if there is two outs, well, phooey. The Nats have stolen 46 bases and been caught 26 times, a sterling 63.8% success rate. The NL average is 71.4% on 17% more attempt. As you have witnessed, the Nats have been killing many rallies before the hitter has a chance to do anything about it.

The Nats ground into 16% more double plays than the league average. Right now, that is playing to about one per week. It may not seem like much, but when Zimm and Kearns reach for those fastballs low and away, they kill any chance for a big inning. One more big inning per week probably adds 6-10 wins to the season total. Both Zimm and Kearns started the season driving the ball into the air, but each hit mid-season (or in Kearns case, mid-career) slumps. Zimm has been hitting better of late, but once again has aspirations of leading the league. Simple situational hitting teaches batters how to avoid these by laying off and going the other way. Wil Nieves doesn't hit the ball more than 200 feet, but rarely puts himself into a 6-4-3 because he will hit opposite field on balls pitched to the outer half.

The Nats are fourth in the NL with 795 strikeouts. They parlay this by drawing the second most walks in the NL. They are a patient team, which gets a lot of runners on first base, and is reflected in their team OBP. However, the Nats take take 30% of their overall strikeouts looking, which of course leads the league. Adam Dunn is one of the main culprits, as he lays back and waits for a mistake to crush. But this doesn't excuse the number of other hitters for not playing more aggressively with two strikes. The Nats have worked the pitch count well this season (2nd in pitches per PA in the NL) but this is not helping them with runners in scoring position and the pitcher attacking the zone to prevent walking in the run.

Points two and three may contradict slightly, as being passive may lead to more strikeouts looking, while a more aggressive approach may lead to more double plays. Other successful teams find a balance, or lean to one extreme or the other. The Nats somehow play both extremes, which is a recipe for losing baseball.

Bullpen Issues

* How is Jorge Sosa different than anybody DFAed? In fact, I'm pretty sure Jesus Colome just stole a new identity.

* Logan Kensing was awful his first stint, and has been awful this time up.

* Who gets moved to the pen when JZimm comes off the DL? Kensing likely goes to Syracuse, and I'm guessing Stammen will get relegated as his innings get up there.

Nationals Baseball

Please stop trying to steal.

Why Rizzo Is Not "Rebuilding"

Mike Rizzo was recently quoted as saying that the Nats were not rebuilding. Now before we get to the punchline that you cannot rebuild what was never there, we have to remind ourselves that Mr. Rizzo is still working under the title "acting GM." As the first half of the season unfolded and Rizzo attempted to untangle the mess of the Jim Bowden era, Rizzo's fingerprint was crystal clear. He removed the dead weight from the forty-man roster, brought in young ground ball pitchers, then began improving the defense. However, none of the marquee players were touched.

Rizzo understands the value of defense and must know that Adam Dunn in left field and Cristian Guzman at short, despite their offensive numbers, will not compensate for their defensive shortcomings. These players would be the best trade bait. Every AL contender could use a bat like Dunn, and Guzman is more appealing than many teams' shortstop options. However, Rizzo isn't GM, and his boss doesn't exactly share his goals.

Stan Kasten isn't responsible for making the Nationals win. He is responsible for making the Nationals profitable. The problem is that winning and making money are not mutually exclusive. Mr. Kasten should care that the Nats have taken just four years to become the league laughingstock, but instead, he is forced to profit on that fact. Hence the fact the Nats have taken out specific ad campaigns catering to fans of opposing teams (Phillies, Red Sox, Orioles), the fact that they are only trading veterans in the final year of their contract, hoarding as many high profile players as possible, and the fact that they cannot be rebuilding.

2009 is a lost year. By admitting that the Nationals are rebuilding, that 2010 may be more of the same, will sacrifice season ticket sales, television ratings, and what little interest the public still has will quickly disappear. Kasten needs marquee players and hope to put people in the seats, not the possible myth of rebuilding. Sadly for the fans, Kasten's method works to meet the bottom line, and he will continue to put forth a team that he can sell as being a "potential winner" until he cannot sell seats and gets himself terminated.

These two differing philosophies are hamstringing the Nats. Rizzo would prefer to play .300 ball this year, .400 ball in 2010, then go for .500 in 2011 and 2012, while Kasten hopes that his current team could play better, consistently play .450 ball and threaten a run at .500 at some point. Rizzo would prefer to invest in in scouting and prospects while Kasten would prefer to go after free agents and Strasburg. Who knows for sure who pulled what string in Acta's dismissal, but more than likely somebody hoped that Riggleman would spark a resurgence.

The tragedy in all this is that by 2009 being a lost year, the Nats killed 2010 by not making a deliberate move either for or against Rizzo's plan. He probably deserves a chance to see his work through, but odds are Kasten is going to hire outside the organization and bring in new blood. The new GM will have to build within the existing framework and 2011 will be a lost year as well.