Eephus Hernandez

There is something quite elegant about a noodle 12-6 curveball that registers 63 on the radar gun and sorrow in the score book for all those foolish enough to swing at it. The modern day Eddie Harris, Livan Hernandez left in all on the field, including his fastball. After leading the NL in innings and batters faced three straight seasons, the Nats set him free to pursue a playoff birth (the trade netted Garrett Mock and Matt Chico). Livan then became more of a punchline that a pitcher, culminating in 2008 by getting hit more than those topless Miley Cyrus pictures. Of course, Rizzo went and rescued him from the Mets after he shut the Nats down twice.

How he does it?



It is really hard to say.



Unlike most pitchers, the key probably lies within his ability to get four hittable pitches to work at such vastly different speeds. It takes a patient hitter to lay off a 64 mph strike. He also waits to add that fourth pitch in the second and third time through the lineup, giving the hitter one more thing to think about.

Now Hold It... Right There.

Johan was watching too many MASN commercials and was lulled by the Hammer's husky southern drawl. Willingham has the talent to go scorching hot for a few weeks, and he is going to need to if Riggleman continues to roll the dice with this abomination:
Morgan: .081
Taveras: .045
Guzman: .105
Yes, those are the 2009 ISO numbers for the top 3 hitters the Nats lineup. ISO is a good barometer of the hitter's ability to hit for extra bases (SLG-AVG)... and anything under .100 is bad. Anything over .200 is pretty good. Anything under .060 is a pitcher. There is NO POINT to batting Taveras any higher than 8th. Morgan is a good leadoff hitter, and Guzman is a swinger that is better suited for a lower lineup spot. Some timely hitting from the Hammer probably saved this from being a 2-1 loss.

Back to the axiom, better lucky than good. And we shall save Livan for later.

Better Lucky than Good

Right now, the National are not clearly the worst team in baseball. Oh yeah, we could all rattle our SABR and prove how bad the Nats have actually played the first five games. But the difference this season is that with slightly better defense and baserunning, the Nats have been able to make few timely plays to win games.

Matt Capps is a ticking timebomb... I'm pretty sure he just walked me to load the bases. While the options are not at all appealing, now we know why Mike MacDougal was exhumed.

Man, What a Beatdown

There have been a few positives that have come out of the first games. They do not even come close to outweighing some of the negatives, but there is reason to believe that the Nats have improved in a couple areas.

Left-handed relief: A few days ago, I realized that Joe Beimel was still unsigned (the Rockies since signed him to a crappy minor league deal) and was pissed the Nats did nothing to bring him back. Well, it is difficult to argue with their decision, as Burnett has produced consistent numbers with sustained "success" for two years now. The key is keeping him from having to appear in eighty games. Jesse English should be able to handle the lower leverage situations without during 5-2 deficits into 8-2 deficits, and occasionally stepping in to get a key 7th inning out.

There are many more reasons to worry. The bomb aside, Ian Desmond looked horribly overmatched with a runner on second and 2 out, hacking furiously at balls out of the zone. He should have that arrogance about him, knowing crappy relief pitchers will waste pitches to him because balls in the zone are problematic. That, and he may be after a couple dubious records in the field. The growing pains will make fans long for Guzman.

Jason Marquis looked shaky, almost Daniel Cabrera at time, but the 87 mph meatball deposited by Ryan Howard off the Acela sign was inexcusable. If anything, miss to Howard and pitch to Werth... don't let Howard mash a freebie. Just bad decision making and execution.

Right field is still struggling, and Cristian Guzman's cameo almost turned hilarious. Both Harris and Morse deserve about a month before searching for alternatives.

The Phillies are good, but those optimistic 78 win predictions are flying out the window quickly.

9 Walks, 4 Strikeouts

HOLY CRAP!

Counter that with a wonderful 3 walks and 11 strikeout out of the other dugout and what you just saw was a AAAA team get massacred by a Major League team.

Other notes:

The Nats made the game's only error.
The Phillies hit two home runs; the Nats hit into two double plays.
Roy Halladay doubled hit career RBI total with his third career hit.
Pudge smacked three hits, including two doubles, and was never involved in any scoring.
53, 62, 49, 60, 56, 52: These are the strike percentages of the Nats pitchers.
The 62 and 60 belonged to Jesse English and Jason Bergmann, who combined for only 18 pitches.
One of Jason Bergmann's 3 strikes was crushed by Polanco for a two out grand slam.

And THAT is how to drop the opener 11-1.

Distraction from the Disaster

Nationals baseball: I think they should have brought Obama out to start the sixth... couldn't have been worse than Batista. Yeah, that started to look like the opening escape scene in The Fugitive.

Anyways, feel free to tune into the Texas-Toronto game, where Shaun Marcum has a no-hitter through six, on just 69 pitches.

Opening Day

Congrats baseball fans... buckle up, because it will probably only take 7 innings before the Nats Express runs headlong into the reigning NL buzzsaw.

Not Buying the Offense

The Nats loaded their bench with some bats that wouldn't make some AAA rosters, let alone a major league one... let's look at the suspects.

C Wil Nieves: No surprise here. He slaps the ball the other way enough to distinguish himself from the pitchers, but isn't a threat to post a wOBA over .300. If he handles the pitchers well, he is not a liability... last season, it didn't seem to matter who caught, pitchers were lit up like the Griswold house. At age 33, if Flores gets healthy, or Coste hits anything, he could see his name in the transactions column, DFA... that would be horrible, as Wil is like the white guy at the end of every NBA bench. Nobody can quantify his value, but character and chemistry translate to a better work environment.

2B/SS Alberto Gonzanlez: With all the moves the Nats made, prepping Desmond, signing Bruntlett and Kennedy, Gonzalez looked to be the odd man out. Even Mike Morse can play most of the infield spots in a pinch. Especially given Kennedy's superior bat and utility presence, the Nats appeared to be heading in a different direction. Gonzalez is still young, but the book on him is pretty straight forward: AAA bat with little patience, lacking the speed to be a threat on the base paths or defense to contribute regularly at shortstop. The Opening Day roster means little for the balance of the season, but at 26, Gonzalez has to hit or field early to stick for more than the first 60 days.

SS/2B Cristian Guzman: It is luxury to have a player of Guzman's skill and experience on the bench. It is penance to sign his paychecks and watch him sulk. He is a better hitter than Gonzalez, and a known commodity to pencil into the lineup. If Desmond struggles, Guzman is likely the difference between 95 and 100 losses. Guzman will likely get regular at bats. It a perfect world, it would be to keep his trade value high. More than likely, it is just a justification for the paycheck... hey look, he's leading the team with a .305 batting average!!... and posting a .304 on base percen... what?

OF Willy Taveras: The ONLY excuse for carrying Taveras is that the management feels the need... The Need for Speed!! While contenders are filling their 25th man spots with the likes of Eric Hinske and Brendan Harris, or highly touted prospect, the Nats are going to kick the tires on twice failed Taveras. In 2005 and 2006, Taveras looked to have some upside, as he was getting on base often enough to utilize his speed. However, Taveras career appears to have been a three year mirage, aided by some ridiculous BABiP numbers (.345, .330, .370). When that number declined in Cincinnati's bandbox, he was a useless as a used tampon in the locker room, despite his defense and speed. Given a fair assessment of hits falling going forward, it is still unlikely he can get on base 30% of the time, making him a useless major league batter.

UTIL Mike Morse: Rizzo's keen eye snatched him from a Mariners' organization rebuilding based on superior defense. The result is a capable bat that can play multiple positions satisfactorily. Basically, most teams would like to have Mike Morse as a 25th man if he has the options to move between levels. Morse should be the platoon answer for Willie Harris in right field. The improvement in plate presence far outweighs any additional value Taveras can provide in right field.

Now what does all this mean? The consensus last season was that the Nats lost 103 games despite a good offense. Truth is, the Nats offense was barely middle of the pack. Every game will feature at least four at bats from Pudge or Wil. Sure, they are the catcher, but aside from Flores little run last April, Nats' catchers have never hit a lick. This will not change this season. Desmond is a mystery at short and SHOULD be better than Guzman, but rookies can turn ugly. Dunn and Willingham are steady sluggers, but are also on the wrong side of thirty and are not going to drastically improve their rate numbers. If anything, they should expect a slight decline. Nyjer Morgan has consistently hit those high BABiP figures, but those could turn into a pumpkin at anytime, just like they did for Willy Taveras. Willie Harris has never been a more than an average major league player with good utility value. Adam Kennedy had a career year in Oakland at age 33; he could have easily been OOB with a sub-replacement level year. The only player in the lineup expected to produce at or above last season's level is Ryan Zimmerman.

That is bleak. The culture change, paying attention to defense, pitching, and character has been refreshing. However, going into the season, one would have hoped that the Nats could have cobbled together more than one replacement level offensive player in case of an injury.

Guzman in Right Field

April Fools!

Creative, but no.

Nationals Baseball

Where the worst hitter in the ENTIRE LEAGUE can win a share of the starting right field job.

You want to know who Willy Taveras batting comp is? Craig Stammen. Yes, the pitcher, not Craig Stammen the astronaut. Now it was figured that either Eric Bruntlett or Taveras would make the team as the 25th player because they can run a little and play defense. However, neither should have been expected to make more than 50 plate appearances. Now, heading into a showdown with the reigning NL champs, the Nats will roll out THREE below replacement caliber hitters. The pitcher is excusable, and the Rodriguez/Nieves tandem hurts but doesn't kill. But looking forward, each of the 7, 8, 9, 1, and 2 batting slots cannot get the ball out of the infield regularly. This is a TERRIBLE IDEA! Mike Morse would have been a tough, but acceptable solution for platoon purposes. Even Justin Maxwell has been coat hanger abortion bad, but at least he has an "upside".

Fangraphs estimates that Willy Taveras was worth negative 1.3 million dollars to the Reds last season. In other words, the Reds should have taken three minor league replacement players, shot two in the face, and let the third bat 8th and play center field. The Nats just picked one of the corpses...