If Not Lee, Then Who?

OK, so what would the Nationals Opening Day rotation look like if the season started January 1st?

Well, Jordan Zimmermann is health, and we will assume the same for John Lannan and Jason Marquis. I though Marquis could be a mildly intriguing trade chip at the Winter Meetings if the Nats played up his second half numbers. However, Rizzo likes his groundballers and wasn't going to mail-in his first major signing as a failure.

1)
2) Zimmermann
3) Lannan
4) Marquis
5)

OK, so some in-house candidates to fill in that five-hole are Yunesky Maya, Luis Atilano, and Craig Stammen. I doubt JD Martin figures into the equation anymore, as the front office treated him as an afterthought despite league average numbers. The Pirates took Scott Olsen off the scrap heap, so that is one less headache. The Nats really do not have another farmhand ready to step in and contribute, so unless they bring back Hernandez for another dance (which wouldn't be the worst thing), these are the applicants.

Maya, despite the investment, projects more as a reliever in the long run. The Nats will try to recoup by giving him every opportunity to succeed, but until he moves into that 7th or 8th inning role, expect him to be plagued with inconsistency injuries, but the promise that if he puts it all together, he could be a good #2 or #3 starter.

Stammen seems to have accepted his fate as the team's new Jason Bergmann: too good to pitch in the minor leagues, but not good enough to be anything but the big club's emergency punching bag. He just cannot keep the plane of his fastball down long enough to string together a month of good starts. He also seems to be nibbling more and more and finding himself behind in counts, never good for a starting pitcher.

Atilano has a similar game to Stammen, but more options and fewer gopherballs. If he wins the job out of camp, good for him. If he gets it by default, uh oh.

The #1 guy is a little bit more tricky. There are no in-house candidate with elbows fully intact. Cliff Lee was a wet dream as the Yankees and Rangers have everything to lose by not acquiring his services. The Nats do not have the minor league depth to really go get Zack Grienke or Matt Garza, but they have inflated the market to force those two teams to extend or trade those players at or below market value. The Werth deal is terrible from a cost per win standpoint, but not so bad if they can land Garza or Grienke at sixty percent what Lee gets on the open market.

If the Nats want to roll the dice on other free-agent pitchers, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden and Ben Sheets are fascinating and volatile reclamation projects. Both Harden and Sheets were awful last season, and Webb has been shutdown so long Rizzo may be the only guy who still knows he is out there. Harden was destined to get destroyed in Arlington, and there is no way the Rangers will exercise his option. Sheets should have fared better in Oakland, but never turned the corner. Carl Pavano is slightly safer, but doesn't offer #1 potential. Brad Penny is probably out of gas, but somebody will kick the tires. Everybody else out there is #3 potential as well as quality, and probably not worth the 5 million it would take to sign them.

The conclusion? Much like the first base situation, only a few people in the front office are navigating the smoke and mirrors. 2011 is likely another rebuilding season, so they may not want invest in a one year deal for #1 money, but settling for a #3 like Jeff Francis. After watch Wang rehab all season, the Nats are likely staying off the reclamation projects, so expect a trade or a minor signing. 2011 is more about finding competent corner outfielders and growing the young talent up the middle. If it gets them to .500, good work.

Baseball is a Funny Game

2 weeks ago, Marquis was finished, Lannan was sputtering, and Olsen and Strasburg were supposed to roll off the DL and anchor the rotation.

Now Olsen is struggling, Strasburg is shut down, Lannan and Marquis turned the clock back to 2009 for a couple starts, and Jordan Zimmermann is rolling off the rehab assignment.

I guess that is why you can never have enough pitching.

Boy, That Escalated Quickly

First, great job by the front office getting players signed. Sure, everyone wishes that this process didn't drag out until the last minute, but that really does play to both sides best interests. The player gets the same money (possibly more) and doesn't accept the additional risk of pitching more innings after a full prep season. The team wins because a shortened negotiating window allows them to hold all the chips and make a convincing bid (Robbie Ray), unless the player REALLY wants to go back to school.

Speaking of escalating quickly, has anybody gone from "completely in control" to "Oh shit" as quickly as Scott Olsen tonight? Despite the start going down as a loss, it looks like Olsen, unlike Marquis, is probably back as healthy as he will be and snagged a rotation spot for the remainder of the year.

Paging Jordan Zimmermann...

No Vacancies

Detwiler, Marquis, Zimmermann, Maya.

Who the heck ARE these guys? Well, we know who most of them are, as they have logged many quality innings on the DL. Going forward, these are the faces that will appear in the "Tomorrow's Starter" section of the Post, or the Interwebs, or whatever you read. Rounding it out, for the next forty innings of his career will be Strasburg.

So what does that mean for the other guys who have made almost all the starts for the Nationals this year? Most will be sent packing, whether by trade, non-tender, or outright release. The suspects.

Livan Hernandez, 22 starts: A sad case. It seems all Livo has ever wanted to do is pitch for the Expos and Nationals... everywhere else he lands, he struggles mightily. He has been the horse that has kept the rotation and bullpen from imploding, and he has finally learned to harness whatever his arm has left (to quote Harry Doyle, "KY ball to third..."). He has clearly earned consideration to fit into next season's rotation, but the Nats' surprising starting pitching depth has all but closed the book on his career, barring major injury. I'm sure he will surface some place next season, and he will take his lumps, but the only place he can succeed is with the Nats.

Craig Stammen, 19 starts: I almost feel like I should break this into two sections: Good Craig Stammen and Evil Craig Stammen. Good Craig Stammen is by no means an ace, but has shown that he can throw strikes, get ahead in the count, and bury pitches in the lower corners of the zone. He needs 90 pitches to work his 7 innings of 2 run, 8 hit, 1 walk ball. And he contributes at the plate and in the field, as well. Good Craig Stammen is the fourth or fifth starter on a good team. He may never be good enough to find a permanent home, but brings that "Jason Marquis" package with him. Evil Craig Stammen relies too much on a fastball he can't keep down, like an old man who just popped 9 Viagra. Evil Craig Stammen leaves the game after 73 pitches and 2 runners on down 5 runs. His bat doesn't matter because in his only plate appearance, Riggleman called for a sacrifice with one out, Wil Nieves on first, and Nyjer Morgan on deck. The problem is that there is no in between with Stammen; he either has it or he doesn't. And the Nats do not have the offensive firepower to overcome Evil Craig Stammen. Watching him for 19 starts last year and 19 starts this year, progress has clearly been made. Some people may indicate that the walks are up. This isn't a bad thing, as they are only up slightly, a product of working a slider into his arsenal. He can face batters a third time without them hitting just under .500 against him. With the right pitching coach, Stammen becomes the next Joel Piniero; with the Nats, he gets the AAAA label, someone who can't quite win at the highest level.

Luis Atilano, 16 starts: The data on Atilano is inconclusive. The Pitch f/x indicate that he is a better pitcher than Stammen, but the results state otherwise. Even aligning rookie seasons, Atilano clearly lacks an "out" pitch. Guys who have it may give up runs, sport the 5+ ERA, but the WHIP will be much lower, a product of teams capitalizing on mistakes. Atilano, like many Nats pitchers over the past two seasons, gets bled to death with singles and untimely walks. He does have his service time and options working in his favor, so he will get another season in Syracuse to learn the art of the strikeout, but that also works against him as to where he falls on the pecking order of spot starts and call-ups. The Nats haven't heard the last of Atilano, but to hear him in the near future means things have gone dreadfully wrong.

John Lannan, 15 starts: Every Nats fan refused to believe the statistics. They believed that John Lannan had an unnatural talent for drawing double plays and groundouts, working through the order three times with nary a strikeout. He was the peoples' hero, a soft-spoken affable guy. This season, all four wheels came off simultaneously. Nobody bothered to complain until late May, when the 20-15 mirage evaporated into the harsh urban reality that is baseball in southeast DC. A pitcher with a SO:BB ratio under 1.5 better have complete mastery of 4 pitches and have a great defense behind him (Jason Marquis). Most fail regardless, but a couple grind their way two a few respectable seasons and a major league career. A pitcher with a SO:BB ratio under 1.0 needs to be really good at selling cars or insurance. The excuses have ranged from injury to mechanical to confidence. There shouldn't be excuses. If there is a problem, then there is a plan to fix it. If it can't be fixed... And this is where Rizzo has to be careful. Lannan, like Daniel Cabrera, is a Jim Bowden guy. Jim Bowden bumped Lannan up to the big show ahead of schedule because he saw something in him, which was vindicated for 3 good seasons. Eventually, Rizzo is going to get sick of watching him loop waist-high 84 mph fastballs and five pitch walks and call for his dismissal. Whether he handles it like Cabrera and Milledge, or sends him out with honor will mean a lot to the fans who stood by the 102 and 103 loss teams. But if he CAN figure out the sink to his fastball, location of his slider, maybe he finds his way ahead of...

Scott Olsen, 10 starts: Talk about a guy who keeps shooting himself in the foot. Last year, he showed up injured, sucked, went on the DL, came back fresh but not 100%, pitched 3 good starts and went out for the season. This season he has avoided the sucking, but can't stay healthy. When he is healthy, he looks to be the strikeout pitcher the Nats sorely need, and a lefty to boot. But Scott Olsen, much like the Chevy Avalanche, is 76 inches of unfulfilled promise. The best scenario is that a team makes a waiver claim for him, and the Nats get a B or C prospect. More than likely, though, he will be non-tendered and the Nats will get nothing except 140 innings of replacement level pitching.

JD Martin, 9 starts: JD Martin has been the opposite end of the spectrum of the Atilano/Stammen phase. Martin looks awesome for four innings, walks a guy, gives up a single, then an error, then a long ball, and suddenly Batista is warming up with an out in the fifth. The numbers indicate that Martin should be pitching in the majors. The only number GMs are looking at is 28, the age he will be opening day next year. Rizzo isn't going to commit to a 28 year old with an injury history, especially not one giving up nearly 2 HR per 9. Martin, like Olsen, will likely be in a different organization at the start of camp.

Chien-Ming Wang, 0 starts: Not much to say about Wang, other than Rizzo took a gamble and Wang took the Nats money. The mysterious injury makes Jesus Flores look like Cal Ripken. At least we know what Flores has been doing, and know the extend to which he has and has not recovered. Wang, on the other hand, just throws. And someone will pay him again next year. I doubt it will be the Nats.

The pu-pu platter, 3 starts: Batista grabbed one in a spot start for Strasburg, and Chico grabbed another in the same situation for Lannan. Neither figure into next season's plans by no fault of their own. Batista is an expendable arm, and Chico is full recovered from surgery, but with the superior starting depth, really doesn't figure in to the top 10 even. Garrett Mock started the other game and was somehow diagnosed with a broken neck. The Nats seemed to be tiring of his reenactment of the first fifteen minutes of "The Fugitive" whenever he stepped on the mound, so he will likely fall into the "release" pile when he comes off the DL. Chuck James dominated both levels of minor league ball he played and may garner some consideration if he remains with the club. Shairon Martis, Erik Arnesen, and Jeff Mandel all pitched often at Syracuse, and none of them looked like they will ever make it beyond that level. Brad Meyers, Tom Millone, and Aaron Thompson still look at least one year away, maybe more.

The trick is getting teams interested in the players that do not fit into the plan. The best trading chip the Nats have this off-season is Marquis, he is signed for one more season, and has a history of being durable and bouncing back after a poor season. If the Nats think they are competing in the NL East next year (I hope not, but stranger things happen), maybe they hold on to him. If not, deal him for a corner outfielder or middle infielder. John Lannan and JD Martin are not at all appealing to a contender, so they will likely stay put. They can both provide replacement level performance if more than one of the designated five falter or gets traded.

The perception is that the Nats have too much starting pitching. That may be true, but it may also be true that they are tricking themselves into those infomercial "buy one get one free" deals. Two of crap is still crap... you just need more toilet paper to clean it up.

9 Walks, 4 Strikeouts

HOLY CRAP!

Counter that with a wonderful 3 walks and 11 strikeout out of the other dugout and what you just saw was a AAAA team get massacred by a Major League team.

Other notes:

The Nats made the game's only error.
The Phillies hit two home runs; the Nats hit into two double plays.
Roy Halladay doubled hit career RBI total with his third career hit.
Pudge smacked three hits, including two doubles, and was never involved in any scoring.
53, 62, 49, 60, 56, 52: These are the strike percentages of the Nats pitchers.
The 62 and 60 belonged to Jesse English and Jason Bergmann, who combined for only 18 pitches.
One of Jason Bergmann's 3 strikes was crushed by Polanco for a two out grand slam.

And THAT is how to drop the opener 11-1.

Hey Wang! What's With the Pictures? It's a Parking Lot!

I'll bet when you sign a pitcher like this, you get a free bowl of soup... oh, but it looks good on your rotation (rolling eyes).

Finding Hidden Value- the Cutter

The key to Rizzo's philosophy with pitching has been to keep the ball in the park. He has done this by bringing in ground ball pitchers and finding guys who can pick up the thing behind them and chuck it around to record some outs. This has worked for several clubs, so Rizzo has tried to get a leg up on the competition with his own model.

The problem with sinker ball pitchers is that they do not generate many strikeouts, as noted that they are dead last. (Pittsburgh, the second worst team in the NL, has 11 more than the Nats) The theory is simple: a swinging strike rarely generates a base runner, let alone a run. The Nats had Stephen Strasburg fall into their laps, and he is likely to generate a few of his own. But what about the rest of these guys? How can the Nats maximize the effectiveness of their staff, both current and future players?


Sky Kalkman provides some interesting data on the cut fastball. While the data he provides has many shortcomings, it illustrates several things. First, given the infrequency in which batters see the cutter, it immediately becomes a weapon, almost as much so as the knuckleball. Second, while the hitting numbers for the cutter appear weaker in an 0-2 count, where a pitcher would be using it strike a batter out, the numbers it produces in a 2-0 count are staggering. 2-0 cutters are thrown in the zone 66% of the time, swung at and missed 15%, and generate a BABIP of .273.

2-0 Counts % Zone Swing Whiff BABIP HR CON
Curveball 2% 57% 19% 35% .217 4.0%
Cutter 3% 66% 44% 15% .273 1.8%
Fastball 76% 62% 40% 12% .333 3.4%
Off-speed 10% 56% 39% 28% .248 4.9%
Slider 9% 61% 36% 29% .343 2.4%

The cutter, especially in hitters' counts, does exactly what Rizzo is aiming for: keeping the ball in the park. Overall, the cutter trails only the curveball in home run rate. The biggest advantage is that the cutter can be used inside the strike zone much more effectively. The result is fewer hitters' counts, and an available "out pitch" in a hitters' count.

All Counts % Zone Swing Whiff BABIP HR CON
Curveball 9% 46% 39% 28% .296 1.6%
Cutter 3% 56% 49% 18% .289 1.7%
Fastball 59% 55% 44% 14% .308 2.1%
Off-speed 12% 47% 48% 27% .288 2.2%
Slider 17% 50% 47% 29% .285 2.0%

Obviously Steve McCatty just can't have ALL the guys pick up the cutter, but when looking at some pitchers with great location (Craig Stammen) that just don't have enough in their arsenal to be anything more than a number 5 guy, why not give it a shot.

Sky mentions numerous success stories, but he omits what I find to be the most interesting case. Mark DiFelice of the Brewers has owned righties, absolutely owned them. In 51 innings, he has walked 15 and struck out 48, throwing his blazing 83 mph cutter exclusively. There are theories as to why his cutter works, but the applications should be the same. Work in the zone early, then expand the zone to get outs. Too many pitchers on the Nats do not throw first pitch strikes for fear of giving up too many hard-hit balls.

The cutter may be a fad, it may be too difficult for most pitchers to master, but the slider and the splitter both changed the game. For a team looking to make up some ground in the standings, the Nats need all the help they can get. Rizzo believes sabermetrics is easy... yes, reading numbers off a sheet and choosing the best ones is easy. But will he be the one to go off on his own and try something new, generate his own model for success?

** I will work out the chart formatting soon... stupid blogger formatting.

Craig Stammen... Is He Part of the Future

Wow... took a week to get this posted. Work has been getting in the way of all this blogging and crap.

Craig Stammen finally got back on track last week against Atlanta. He only went 6 innings, but didn't get knocked around like he had in his previous starts. Some may think that he has regained the form he showed in his early July hot spell. However, start in Atlanta was marred with inconsistent location, and the Rockies game exhibited a steady decline in velocity from pitch 1 to 81. It should also be noted the consistency of the strike zone last night... in a season of lousy calls, the His last two starts, he has avoided the fly ball. Basically, Stammen doesn't have the velocity to beat anyone above the belt. However, if he continues to throw nothing but fastballs low and away, teams will adjust and hit the ball the other way. At some point, he needs that fourth pitch to keep hitters off balance the third time through the lineup.



In any event, with his innings getting up there and the bullpen relatively fresh, do not expect another performance as to what he showed in July.

His last good start in July shows the ball staying down and away with a consistent release point. In the Atlanta game, he appears to have gotten away with a few pitches up in the zone that had been spanked recently. The thing that bugged me most about Stammen's recent slump though was this:



I'm not exactly sure what shape that is, but clearly the flattening of his release point had a huge negative impact on his ability to keep the ball down in the zone. It continued from the first Milwaukee game into the Pittsburgh game... honestly, the Florida game was too short to get a good feel, but it looked like his release was significantly more erratic.



The conclusion is that Craig Stammen and Coach McCatty need to fine tune his mechanics so that he doesn't have that "inverted T" on his release chart. This reflects the fact that he locates his pitches better with a more "over the top" delivery. In the offseason, he will have a chance to polish his 2-seam fastball to make it more of a weapon driving the ball down in the zone.

Update: The second Milwaukee game yields better results with a tighter release point. Clearly the further he strays side-to-side, the more danger he finds.

Pitching With Pace (Part 1 of ?)

After watching Jordan Zimmermann come uncorked Sunday after six solid innings, I began to wonder whether or not the pace of the game takes more of an effect on the pitcher than managers realize. Pitch counts are treated as the “end-all be-all” and enthusiasts will harp over year-by-year inning escalations burdened upon young pitchers. Both these quantitative statistics have their time and place, but even pitchers who hit these guidelines develop control problems, dead arms, and eventually injuries. Scott Olsen is likely a prime example.

On Sunday, Jordan Zimmermann was on fire through five innings, eliminating the Astros like they were a AAA lineup. In the top of the sixth, he sat on the bench for several minutes while the Nats hitters loaded the bases and failed to score. He cruised through the meat of the Astros order in the sixth. In the seventh, he bunted his turn at the plate, then watched while the Nats hitters loaded the bases and failed to score*. When he returned in the seventh, the bottom fell out. Hit by pitch, single, strikeout (though the way Pudge was swinging the bat, Daniel Cabrera may have gotten him chasing a pitch into the dugout), the Matsui homerun, and finally walking the pitcher on four pitches.

* I added the phrase "while the Nats hitters loaded the bases and failed to score." as a shortcut... let's hope that it is wasted.

Most people would immediately jump on the pitch count and inning. Zimmermann was pulled at 102 pitches into the seventh inning. Not a bad start overall, if you glance at the box score, but having seen the first six innings of dominance, the line doesn’t make sense. The innings and pitch count were not the factor that killed his stuff. He started the inning with a pitch count in the low 80s, and has regularly thrown over 100 pitches with no ill effects. The fatigue that caught up to him was not in his arm. The first five innings were played in just over an hour and fifteen minutes. The final three and a half innings took and hour forty five.

Trek back to Zimmermann’s start against Boston. The Nats bombed the Sox 9-3, a game that featured some runs, but few long innings after the first. Zimmermann was out of the game for a pinch hitter in two hours, have torn off seven innings with five singles and a walk. He threw 109 pitches and his stuff was not waning. The key was that the pace of the game did not allow him to get mentally fatigued waiting out a 3+ hour game. The variable the Nationals players and coaches control is the time between pitches, which if accelerated to a point where the pitcher remains comfortable, can shorten the game. And while there is a good solution to the dilemma of a hot pitcher sitting on the bench while his team bats around the order, it is up to the manager be able to assess the situation before batters start getting hit and the ball winds up in the stands.

The question now is how much of a correlation can be found within this data? Craig Stammen has had more success going deeper into games recently. Is he pitching with more pace between pitches? A quick glance at game logs may not be able to prove anything, so we may have to go to the video… Where’s George Michael’s Sports Machine when you need it?

More Moves

Scott Olsen in, Shairon Martis to Syracuse

It was inevitable that Scott Olsen was going to take someone's spot. The assumption was that it should be Jesus Colome's spot, moving Stammen to the bullpen, and that made sense based on Colome's numbers. However, Stammen is just beginning to get comfortable as a starter. He is still prone to the big inning, but is striking batters out at a reasonable rate and getting to the seventh inning occasionally. Stammen will be removed from the rotation at some point, but more likely to be shut down for the season.

Martis, on the other hand, has been laboring mightily since his shutout of the Cardinals May 2nd. He has basically been the right-handed Barry Zito. He isn't striking anyone out, he's walking too many, and he is throwing too many pitches per inning. His stuff is not unacceptable; he has just gotten into the habit of nibbling and isn't consistently hitting his spots. The demotion will give him a chance to pitch more aggressively without the fear of getting pounded by the likes of Raul Ibanez.

The key here, believe it or not, is keeping Colome on the roster. He is more or less scrap heap, so he has no trade value and the Nats don't really have a stake in whether or not they abuse him. Joel Hanrahan, on the other hand, has some potential and trade value. He is still young, and if he can get his slider/changeup worked out (right now they are the same pitch), his fastball will not be pounded. Whether or not Hanrahan is hurting is irrelevant (though his workload last year is daunting); the Nationals do not want him to be perceived as a AAAA pitcher, especially since he cannot be demoted to AAA to work on his stuff. In the meantime, the Nats will want to work him into low leverage situations and limit his innings. Having Colome around will allow them to do that.

Odds are, Hanrahan will be back to his 2008 form sometime before next season. Martis will find his way back to the rotation soon enough, whether it's because Hanrahan gets moved, Colome get demoted, somebody gets hurt, etc. He is a baby by starting pitcher standards and the time on the farm will be better for his long term health.

I give this move a B+, actually. They had no choice bringing Olsen back, and showed some decent foresight protecting two of their better assets.

Commitment to Defense...

Is a culture adjustment the Nationals will likely make at some point during the next nine months. Take the game last night, for instance. A key momentum shift occurred late in the game when Melky Cabrera robbed Elijah Dukes of bloop single to center, then an inning later Nick Swisher cut off a sure double from Austin Kearns with a fleet-footed play in right. Neither of these were guaranteed to generate runs, but the defense takes the pressure off CC Sabathia, or who ever is on the mound.

In the bottom of the seventh, the middle of the Yankees order ripped two balls to deep center that Dukes missed by a combined six inches. Dukes has the range to play center, but doesn't seem to have the reflexes to finish the play (may also explain his penchant for getting picked off). If he catches either of those balls, the Yankees may not win in regulation.

In the off season, the Yankees made a commitment to improving their defense. The first move was to remove Johnny Damon from center field completely and install him in left, where his lack of arm strength is not as evident, but his range could still excel. Their remaining outfield options going into the season included Xavier Nady, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Nick Swisher (and Hideki Matsui, but he has been the primary DH). Nady going down week one opened up innings for the other three, who are all better defenders. Next, they replaced Giambi at first base with a much more athletic Mark Teixeira. They are still weak up the middle with Cano and Jeter, but both are playing better than 2008. Their defensive improvement have allowed them to survive the new Yankee Stadium by allowing fewer base runners. The Nationals will have the opportunity to make similar changes this off-season.

The other point that Rob Dibble brought up a couple times in the later innings was that walks are killing the Nats. The additional base runner will put the defense in a position to fail, such as with Pena's single in the eighth, which would have been easily caught with the infield at normal depth. I think this is more "Chicken-Egg" theory. Martis is not a big strikeout pitcher, and was clearly nibbling Barry Zito style to avoid the big hit. He managed minimal damage despite the five walks. Martis gets away with it because he locates his pitches well and doesn't get hit hard. Most Nats pitchers do not and will get hit hard. This leads to the conundrum of whether or not throw hittable pitches with a porous defense or continue to try and get swings out of the strike zone. The latter will up the strike out totals and take pressure off the defense in one aspect, but the risk of walks will force the hand on the others. The starters have been hit hard at times because they are throwing strikes.

In the end, and improved defense next season will vastly improve the pitchers' results.

Scott Olsen: Better Than Cabrera... barely

The streak is over… the Nationals three game tear ended in the desert yesterday as the defense continued perform like they are still recovering from a Cinco de Mayo hangover. It also didn’t help that Scott Olsen brought out a D-minus game for the fourth time in seven starts. The Nationals have been patient waiting for Olsen to find his comfort zone. This has allowed him to lead the National League in both hits and earned runs allowed. Sweet!

My inclination is that the Nationals will continue to send Olsen out, not because they are patient, but because they do not know how to interpret the data in front of them. Olsen arrived in Miami as a bit of a steal for the Marlins, a sixth round draft pick who had developed into a decent left-handed power pitcher. A rare commodity at all levels, Olsen dominated in the minors and was made a full time starter as a rookie at 22. Since that rookie year, him strikeout rate steadily decreased, bottoming out last year. More balls are flying into play against the porous defense, and while balls aren’t necessarily leaving the park at an increased rate, they are certainly leading to more runs.

So why is Olsen getting the crap knocked out of him? Well, the Nationals didn’t do a very good job of reading between the lines. Scott Olsen has always been known a hot-head. He’s immature and flat out loses it when things do not go his way, both on and off the mound. At times, can be a weapon in his favor, but more often than not, it is his vice. Off the mound, he is liable to pull a Kevin Brown at any moment. On the mound, if things don’t go his way, he gets frustrated and throws harder. His professional inning totals have shown that he wasn’t over-burdened from a quantitative standpoint (128, 136, 101, 201, 183, 202), though the jump in innings moving from AA to the big club looks to have had an effect on his dreadful 2007 numbers. I like to call this the Saberhagen Dilemma, where a young pitcher is pitching so well and is so vital to that teams pennant chances, management will give him the ball deep into games to get the win. The residual effects are almost always noted the next season. Ten years from now, we may see a similar pattern to Olsen’s career. But back to Olsen’s style, while number of pitchers may not be wearing his arm out, his tendency to let his emotions and adrenaline push him has likely caused some minor damage to his arm. It would be up to the GM to infer that from the decreased velocity, strikeout rate, and mental makeup that Olsen is hiding an injury, or too macho to even look for one.

In the end, any decent baseball eye could have projected that Olsen would more closely pitch to his 2007 numbers this season, as opposed to his 2006 or 2008 performances. If the Nats can milk a few more decent starts out of him this season, well, good. The best course of action is probably to send the specialist in to see if there is anything that could be turning him into Barry Zito and shutting him down if there is.