Updates: Summit and Southland

-->

Not the coach and the TV Show...

Summit League

Summary: That night in Fort Wayne will be retold for at least the next decade.  The Mastadons missed a couple opportunities to knock off Top 100 teams early, but the Hoosiers dropped the trap game.  The Summit League is actually a little stronger (or the other perennially strong mid-majors are weaker because of defections) than years past.  Denver started poorly, but has strung together a couple win to think they could join the upper crust.  Omaha has not.  North Dakota State and IUPUI did not make a mark in any of their opportunities.

What I got wrong: Omaha probably isn’t there yet and will likely end up middle of the pack.  Western Illinois was total trash, then went and stole one at Fort Wayne.  They will be tough to pinpoint the rest of the way.  South Dakota looks feisty.

Prognosis: Oral Roberts played a doozy of a non-conference slate and could have stole a few of those games.  This isn’t as deep as their champion caliber teams, but they can play with any of these teams.  There will be a lot of 7-9 teams to sort out with Fort Wayne and North Dakota State on top.  The other guys can wreak havoc but will cannibalize each other.  The fact that half the conference plays at high tempo, half play slow, and Oral Roberts is the amoeba, should lay out some interesting matchups and gambling opportunities, if your book carries Summit action.

SUM Preseason Realtime 1 Fort Wayne Fort Wayne 2 Omaha North Dakota State 3 North Dakota State IUPUI 4 IUPUI South Dakota State 5 South Dakota State Oral Roberts 6 Oral Roberts Omaha 7 Western Illinois Denver 8 Denver South Dakota 9 South Dakota Western Illinois

Southland

Summary: This conference does not have that bracket threat this year.  There is much more parity without a dominant Lumberjack squad to anchor it.  They may rise to the top, but Corpus and Sam have more talent and should rival.  Houston Baptist has looked solid.  The trouble with the Southland, as well as other small conference schools, is the sheer number on non-D1 games that skew the schedule trends.  These teams all got smoked in their buy games (except Nicholls, Lamar, and New Orleans inexplicably picked up road wins), played hit or miss against their peers.

What I got wrong: Nothing of significance.  The Top 5 are intact.  It’s crazy how bad some of the defenses are… only Nicholls can point to tempo, and they may not be able to reap much of the benefits.  New Orleans may play up out of the cellar.

Prognosis: Corpus remains the pick, but likely slip into the play in game.  McNeese and Abilene have shown the least thus far and get bumped to the bottom.

SL Preseason Realtime 1 Texas A&M Corpus Christi Texas A&M Corpus Christi 2 Sam Houston State Sam Houston State 3 Stephen F Austin Stephen F Austin 4 Houston Baptist Houston Baptist 5 Southeastern Louisiana Southeastern Louisiana 6 Northwestern State Northwestern State 7 Nicholls State Nicholls State 8 Abilene Christian New Orleans 9 McNeese State Incarnate Word 10 Incarnate Word Lamar 11 Central Arkansas Central Arkansas 12 New Orleans Abilene Christian 13 Lamar McNeese State

Conference Updates: MEAC, SWAC, Big West

Big West

Summary: Long Beach has 5 Top 25 losses, which is pretty hard to assemble through the non-conference slate.  I have the Top 4 assemble in some order, and the Niners should still be able to pull through.

What I got wrong: Riverside is one of the worst teams in the country no matter how you slice it.  Cal Poly is not.

Prognosis: Staying the course with LBST, with a glut of the 3 behind them at 10-6/9-7… the rest of the conference is not making moves.  Hawaii had a chance to show up in some of their local marquee games, and looked game at times, but lost all 4.  I could easily see the winner of this conference relegated to the play-in game.

BW	Preseason	Realtime
1	Long Beach	Long Beach
2	Davis	Davis
3	Irvine	Irvine
4	Northridge	Northridge
5	Riverside	Santa Barbara
6	Santa Barbara	Hawaii
7	Hawaii	Poly
8	Fullerton	Fullerton
9	Poly	Riverside

Mid-Eastern Athletic

Summary: Very little good news coming out of the MEAC.  Usually they have a couple teams thoroughly outmatched, but this has been unexpected.  These teams are getting blown out every time in buy games (except one), and failing to steal any games against their peers.  In years past, you could get excited about a Coppin State, Hampton, Norfolk State, etc… The thought was Howard had the pieces in place to be that team, but without James Daniel, they are lost.

What I got wrong: LaVelle Moton should be in line for a pay raise at another school.  Typically, NC Central would have to make some NCAA waves to get him noticed, but I think VCU would be going further with him than Wil Wade.  Win over Missouri (OK, Tigers suck) and close games against Ohio State and LSU show that they can do damage if they can get to the stage.  I also was not tracking Savannah State’s change in philosophy facing sanctions, which while exciting, will probably not produce many wins.

Prognosis:  I feel a little dirty pointing out what I called right here, but this is one where I do need to shuffle the deck a little.  SC State and Howard will improve, but I see little reason to believe anyone outside the top 4 will make a run.

MEAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Howard	North Carolina Central
2	Savannah State	Howard
3	Norfolk State	South Carolina State
4	South Carolina State	Norfolk State
5	Hampton	Hampton
6	North Carolina Central	Bethune Cookman
7	North Carolina A&T	Morgan State
8	Bethune Cookman	Maryland Eastern Shore
9	Morgan State	Savannah State
10	Maryland Eastern Shore	North Carolina A&T
11	Florida A&M	Florida A&M
12	Delaware State	Delaware State
13	Coppin State	Coppin State

Southwestern Athletic

Summary: BOOM!! Nailed it.  Texas Southern is solid.  A&M, Pine Bluff, and Valley are total butt.  Everything in the middle is a crapshoot.

What I got wrong: Most publications had Jackson State closer to the top than 5^th.

Prognosis: Texas Southern can really give teams trouble from the 15 seed.  I think their number will depress a little during conference play, but they should be able to make that line.  Mike Davis has plenty of tourney experience to prevent a slip up… but if they do, Southern will be there to pounce.

SWAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Texas Southern	Texas Southern
2	Southern	Southern
3	Alabama State	Alabama State
4	Alcorn State	Alcorn State
5	Jackson State	Jackson State
6	Grambling State	Grambling State
7	Prairie View A&M	Prairie View A&M
8	Mississippi Valley State	Mississippi Valley State
9	Alabama A&M	Alabama A&M
10	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Arkansas Pine Bluff