I like to stand by my preseason call as long as
possible. Some of these calls, such as
Howard in the MEAC, were flawed from the start.
Other calls, such as Liberty in the Big South, were sabotaged by injury
or circumstance. Sometimes you tried to
ride a darkhorse, like Bryant, who just does not have the talent to
emerge. And finally, sometimes you think
you really understand a team and its ability to deploy a tactic upon lesser
competition, only you were dead wrong, as in the case the case of my Horizon
picks.
First, preseason to league play, I maintained 25 of 32
projected winners. Better than 75% isn’t
bad, but there is still work to be done.
Also, it warrants mentioning that for the for the “surely auto-bid”
leagues, we are selecting who is most likely to make the field, not necessarily
who is going to have the best league win percentages.
Conferences that I definitely need to amend:
Northeast
America East
Southland
MAC
Conferences that will not fall my way, but intend to stick
with my call to upset the tourney:
Summit
Patriot
Big West
Conferences way too close to call:
Sun Belt
Southern
Ivy
Big South (Liberty, back from the dead!)
Northeast
Let me disclose- this is an awful conference this year. I rolled the dice with Bryant early, flopped
to Robert Morris, but now it impossible to decide. I love a local pick in Mount St. Mary’s, but
not so sure they can sustain their run trotting out a bunch of mites. FDU has warts, and LIU just dumped to a very
weak CCSU team. Nobody has shown that
they can compete at the “Field of 68” level, but we will reward the
Mountaineers for their consistency that will lead them through the NEC.
America East
Straight up, Vermont may be one of the 68 best teams in the
country. Seriously, you wouldn’t take
them in your bracket over the bottom 10 SEC teams? I originally, and still, wanted New Hampshire
to put it all together because they have never been anywhere near the
postseason before. Nobody in this league
has the ability to solve Vermont’s attack.
UMBC may be able to push the pace, but they won’t get the stops. The Cats also live around the rim, so they
are less prone to a cold shooting night.
Southland
It doesn’t look like the “Community College” turning it
around soon enough. There is still a lot
to like there, but the results aren’t happening. The Jacks are near the top of the standings,
but the kenpom numbers tell another story.
New Orleans has come out of nowhere, but I’m leaning toward the
Bearkats. After a slow start, they have
won 7 in a row, including at New Orleans.
Both teams are poor shooting and loose with the ball, but I expect the
Privateers to regress (two OT wins).
Mid-American
Akron is one of the few teams enjoying success maintaining a
slow tempo when the game has opened up to “embrace the pace”. This is the slowest team Keith Dambrot has
put on the floor at Akron, but they work to exploit the 3-point shot, and make just enough to be dangerous. Outside of a sloppy start against Youngstown
State, they have beaten everyone they were supposed to beat. They still have Ohio and EMU on the road that
could expose a flaw, but I expect them to coast through.
Fun stat: Since reaching the Final Four in 2007, the
Georgetown Hoyas have been knocked out of the NCAA tourney 6 straight times by
lower seeds. It will be interesting to
see if JT3 gets a chance to extend that streak, because it will not be this
year.
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