Not really, but an interesting reversal of fortune, with Nyjer Morgan stranding the go ahead run in an 0-4 effort, getting picked off first, meanwhile Lastings Milledge produced two RBI singles. One game against the Pirates in a lost year for each.
* Man, Guzman REALLY cannot move to his left.
* Lannan is the ace and the horse, but Riggleman should have noticed he looked a little flat tonight an grabbed him after 90 pitches or so... he is still a kid.
* The Nats take too many pitches with two strikes... they need to work on keeping at bats alive even though they aren't getting hittable pitches. Pitchers, especially relievers, make mistakes.
* The Nats have played four months and still have not avoided the losing streak. Amazing!
Friday, July 31, 2009
Beimel Dealt, Could Have Done Worse
Honestly, the fact that any of the Nats deplorable bullpen attracted interest is comforting. Joe Beimel is a useful left arm, but his type are available every year at the winter meetings, and can usually be found during free agency. The pull for Beimel are a couple long shots right now, but the depth gained is reassuring. Rizzo may be putting all of his eggs in the pitching basket right now, but he is implementing a plan. That is more than can be said for his predecessor.
Johnson Dealt, but the Nats Could Have Done Better
The next entry will cover the differing philosophies dooming the Nats right now.
Nick Johnson was traded straight-up for Marlins AA pitching extra Aaron Thompson today, right at the deadline. The Nats needed to get younger. Check. They needed to upgrade their AAA pitching depth now that most have been promoted to stop the bleeding at the major league level. OK. The Nats also needed to continue to improve their defense and save as much money as possible going into the August Strasburg bidding, preferably shedding some of their less productive contracts (Guzman, Kearns, Young, Belliard). Neither of these were accomplished. Considering the bounty the Mariners landed for Yuniesky Betancourt, there are suckers out there. Guzman could have been moved while he was hot for prospects, but it the trigger was never pulled.
Back in May, when Big Papi was suffering from Vitamin B withdrawl or Derrick Lee was banged up, Nick Johnson could have been moved for a major league ready prospect. The Red Sox just traded two pitching prospects and a proven major league commodity in Justin Masterson to grab Victor Martinez. Martinez is a better player and more versatile, but had the Nats made the move, they could have gotten a good major league player in return. Instead, they waited and made a riskier move that saved them less money.
There are underlying reasons, those differing philosophies, that reduced Nick Johnson's value.
Now that Nick Johnson has been moved expect to see the following three things:
1. Adam Dunn will see much more time at first base.
2. Austin Kearns, who couldn't be baited into a deal, will be bought out and released.
3. Elijah Dukes and Justin Maxwell will be called up to fill out the roster.
The Nats did very well making smaller moves to improve the team this season. However, these small moves haven't built a fertile farm system similar to the Marlins or Rays. The Pirates unloaded their major league roster for more than twenty prospects this month. It will be very interesting to see how these strategies play out.
Nick Johnson was traded straight-up for Marlins AA pitching extra Aaron Thompson today, right at the deadline. The Nats needed to get younger. Check. They needed to upgrade their AAA pitching depth now that most have been promoted to stop the bleeding at the major league level. OK. The Nats also needed to continue to improve their defense and save as much money as possible going into the August Strasburg bidding, preferably shedding some of their less productive contracts (Guzman, Kearns, Young, Belliard). Neither of these were accomplished. Considering the bounty the Mariners landed for Yuniesky Betancourt, there are suckers out there. Guzman could have been moved while he was hot for prospects, but it the trigger was never pulled.
Back in May, when Big Papi was suffering from Vitamin B withdrawl or Derrick Lee was banged up, Nick Johnson could have been moved for a major league ready prospect. The Red Sox just traded two pitching prospects and a proven major league commodity in Justin Masterson to grab Victor Martinez. Martinez is a better player and more versatile, but had the Nats made the move, they could have gotten a good major league player in return. Instead, they waited and made a riskier move that saved them less money.
There are underlying reasons, those differing philosophies, that reduced Nick Johnson's value.
Now that Nick Johnson has been moved expect to see the following three things:
1. Adam Dunn will see much more time at first base.
2. Austin Kearns, who couldn't be baited into a deal, will be bought out and released.
3. Elijah Dukes and Justin Maxwell will be called up to fill out the roster.
The Nats did very well making smaller moves to improve the team this season. However, these small moves haven't built a fertile farm system similar to the Marlins or Rays. The Pirates unloaded their major league roster for more than twenty prospects this month. It will be very interesting to see how these strategies play out.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
2 Grand Slams, 8 RBI!
Congratulations to Josh Willingham for providing the Nationals all-time most productive offensive evening by crushing 2 grand slams against the Brew Crew last night (7/27/09). Hardcore.ps - any takers? Texas Rangers?
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Colin Balester: 3 Things to Expect
I have to say, I am not nearly as excited for the season debut of Colin Balester as I have been the other you starters. Maybe it is because he has been up here before and we know what he can and can't do, while the other guys were mysteries without ceilings. Maybe it is because his AAA stats and performance this year didn't reflect a player with half a year of big league seasoning.
Deep down, though, I think it is because I don't want to be disappointed. Mock and Martin got knocked around a little bit; Balester has proven that could be the same based upon his previous track record.
Here is what to look for with Balester on the hill tonight.
1. One bad pitch per inning. Even in his better starts last season, Balester was all over the place, which can be fine. The problems start when he starts getting too much of the plate. Don't be surprised if he gets taken deep a couple times.
2. Good use of velocity. Balester throws three distinct pitches: a 92 mph fastball, a 84 mph change, and a bowel-moving 75 mph curve. The only problem is that his change stays very flat. Unlike Tyler Clippard, who hides his very well and has the bottom fall out at 54 feet, Balester stays open. He throws it infrequently enough that it doesn't get killed, but the second and third time through, batters can more readily identify the fastball.
3. A fair pitch shake. JD Martin got an irresponsible after 4 as he was beginning to hit his stride. Unless Balester gets ripped for a big inning and can't find his way out, expect him to get 95-105 pitches. He's been here and done this before, and while the bullpen is "rested", it shouldn't be trusted.
Deep down, though, I think it is because I don't want to be disappointed. Mock and Martin got knocked around a little bit; Balester has proven that could be the same based upon his previous track record.
Here is what to look for with Balester on the hill tonight.
1. One bad pitch per inning. Even in his better starts last season, Balester was all over the place, which can be fine. The problems start when he starts getting too much of the plate. Don't be surprised if he gets taken deep a couple times.
2. Good use of velocity. Balester throws three distinct pitches: a 92 mph fastball, a 84 mph change, and a bowel-moving 75 mph curve. The only problem is that his change stays very flat. Unlike Tyler Clippard, who hides his very well and has the bottom fall out at 54 feet, Balester stays open. He throws it infrequently enough that it doesn't get killed, but the second and third time through, batters can more readily identify the fastball.
3. A fair pitch shake. JD Martin got an irresponsible after 4 as he was beginning to hit his stride. Unless Balester gets ripped for a big inning and can't find his way out, expect him to get 95-105 pitches. He's been here and done this before, and while the bullpen is "rested", it shouldn't be trusted.
Guzman Needs to Bat 7th... or 8th
Besides another team? Alas, that is a discussion for another time. Still, cannot believe the Nats were not able to parlay his hot start to a team in need of a SS (and there are several).
Since the acquisition of Nyjer Morgan, the Nats have filled the role of "prototypical lead-off hitter". Morgan takes pitches, bunts, gets on base 35% of the time or better, and can steal bases. So now that Guzman is out of the lead-off spot, where should Riggleman, or which ever lucky 5th grader he selects to pick his lineup, bat Guzman and his .300 average and .301 OBP?
The #2 spot is where he was the other night, and it was a disaster. He chases bad pitches, and while he isn't as prone to the GIDP as Zimmerman, he isn't moving the runner up. Besides, Nick Johnson really understands his role in that position, sacrificing power for control. And obviously the 3 and 4 spots are off limits, even if they are incorrectly administered. That's right, I'll get to that later.
Guzman batted fifth in the first game of this series, proving that Riggleman knows nothing about baseball strategy. Dunn was ahead of him in the lineup, and if Dunn is on first, which happens often with his walk rate, Guzman is NEVER scoring him from first base. Flat out foolish decision. And because Guzman is allergic to the #6 spot in the lineup, that leaves just three spots. OK, the pitcher will stay #9.
So #7 and #8 are open, and are usually reserved for the catcher and a spot starter. Guzman has been hitting the ball this season, but his ISO is still below .100. More often then not he is on first base. Same with Josh Bard. The difference is that Bard, even when healthy, is treacherously slow on the bases. Therefore, it probably best to bat Guzman ahead of him. Bard can paint the lines with double, and Guzman is quick enough to score from first. When Slappy gets the start, he isn't bringing power to the plate, but knows how to get to first and is quick for a catcher. Guzman should bat behind Nieves in the event he starts.
So what does that leave us with?
1. Morgan
2. Johnson
3. Willingham
4. Dunn
5. Zimmerman
6. Second Base (Gonzalez)
7. Guzman/Nieves
8. Bard/Guzman
Batting 8th does not mean that you are a poor hitter; just see what Joe Torre has been doing in LA. However, management seems to believe that Guzman has to bat high to protect his ego. This is pure BS. The objective is still to win games, and give his salary, he should be willing to bat near the bottom if it help produce runs.
The Nats run differential does not support a record as bad as what the Nats have posted. Yes, some of it can be attributed to the leaky bullpen, more to the defense. But those fundamentals do not support the fact that the Nationals hit the ball well, but often fail to score. Zimmerman is too much of a double play machine to bat third. His ground ball ratio also does not help Morgan score from third with less than two outs. Willingham is a good flyball hitter who can get on base. Zimmerman's propensity for ground balls up the middle should be moved down behind Dunn, where one of the following things are more likely:
a) the bases are empty because he is leading off an inning,
b) the bases are empty because Dunn just cleared them,
c) there are two outs so the infield is not at double play depth
d) if Dunn is on first and there are less than two outs, the Nats may have already scored (doesn't diminish the fact that a GIDP sucks, but hey, runs are runs)
Batting third does not allow for a-c, increasing the likelihood that the opponent will play for the double play against Zimmerman. This has probably cost the Nats a half dozen run alone this year. In any event, I will be stashing a printout of this blog in the home dugout every time I hit Nats Park this year.
Since the acquisition of Nyjer Morgan, the Nats have filled the role of "prototypical lead-off hitter". Morgan takes pitches, bunts, gets on base 35% of the time or better, and can steal bases. So now that Guzman is out of the lead-off spot, where should Riggleman, or which ever lucky 5th grader he selects to pick his lineup, bat Guzman and his .300 average and .301 OBP?
The #2 spot is where he was the other night, and it was a disaster. He chases bad pitches, and while he isn't as prone to the GIDP as Zimmerman, he isn't moving the runner up. Besides, Nick Johnson really understands his role in that position, sacrificing power for control. And obviously the 3 and 4 spots are off limits, even if they are incorrectly administered. That's right, I'll get to that later.
Guzman batted fifth in the first game of this series, proving that Riggleman knows nothing about baseball strategy. Dunn was ahead of him in the lineup, and if Dunn is on first, which happens often with his walk rate, Guzman is NEVER scoring him from first base. Flat out foolish decision. And because Guzman is allergic to the #6 spot in the lineup, that leaves just three spots. OK, the pitcher will stay #9.
So #7 and #8 are open, and are usually reserved for the catcher and a spot starter. Guzman has been hitting the ball this season, but his ISO is still below .100. More often then not he is on first base. Same with Josh Bard. The difference is that Bard, even when healthy, is treacherously slow on the bases. Therefore, it probably best to bat Guzman ahead of him. Bard can paint the lines with double, and Guzman is quick enough to score from first. When Slappy gets the start, he isn't bringing power to the plate, but knows how to get to first and is quick for a catcher. Guzman should bat behind Nieves in the event he starts.
So what does that leave us with?
1. Morgan
2. Johnson
3. Willingham
4. Dunn
5. Zimmerman
6. Second Base (Gonzalez)
7. Guzman/Nieves
8. Bard/Guzman
Batting 8th does not mean that you are a poor hitter; just see what Joe Torre has been doing in LA. However, management seems to believe that Guzman has to bat high to protect his ego. This is pure BS. The objective is still to win games, and give his salary, he should be willing to bat near the bottom if it help produce runs.
The Nats run differential does not support a record as bad as what the Nats have posted. Yes, some of it can be attributed to the leaky bullpen, more to the defense. But those fundamentals do not support the fact that the Nationals hit the ball well, but often fail to score. Zimmerman is too much of a double play machine to bat third. His ground ball ratio also does not help Morgan score from third with less than two outs. Willingham is a good flyball hitter who can get on base. Zimmerman's propensity for ground balls up the middle should be moved down behind Dunn, where one of the following things are more likely:
a) the bases are empty because he is leading off an inning,
b) the bases are empty because Dunn just cleared them,
c) there are two outs so the infield is not at double play depth
d) if Dunn is on first and there are less than two outs, the Nats may have already scored (doesn't diminish the fact that a GIDP sucks, but hey, runs are runs)
Batting third does not allow for a-c, increasing the likelihood that the opponent will play for the double play against Zimmerman. This has probably cost the Nats a half dozen run alone this year. In any event, I will be stashing a printout of this blog in the home dugout every time I hit Nats Park this year.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Hooked Just Foul
Wil got ahead of an Ollie Perez fastball and JUST missed a bomb to left. He has mastered the blistering slap to right, though. Is it about time he inherited the nickname "Slappy"?
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Masterpiece
Congratulations to John Lannan, who tonight embarassed the Binghamton Mets, pitching his first complete game shutout. In all, Lannan faced just 32 batters, recording just one strikeout and throwing 80 of 106 pitches (holy crap!) for strikes. The only batter who looked even remotely capable of hitting Lannan tonight was Jeff Francouer.
Lannan has become one of the better "stoppers" in baseball, and stands in the class of Zach Greinke and Dan Haren in that his team gives him plenty of opportunities to end losing streaks. Greinke and Haren do it by baffling hitters with electric stuff, denying baserunners, and resembling Hall of Famers. Lannan, on the other hand, does it with... good God. He locates well and gets ground balls. The question is: can any pitcher who refuses to strike out batters succeed long-term? Is there an example?
Sure, a few (21 active players) have been able to keep their spot in the rotation while posting less than 4 SO/9, but to be compared to Carlos Silva or Brian Meadows isn't going to be taken as a compliment. Most other pitchers on the list are either extreme groundball pitchers (Aaron Cook), or Tom Glavine at ages 22 and 41. Strikeouts are important in the homerun era, when Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham patrol almost 50% of the outfield (Nyjer Morgan covers the other 55%). I expect that Lannan's long run without K's is a fluke and he will push his numbers back up around 5 SO/9 next year.
Edit: Actually, John Lannan matches up pretty well with Nick Blackburn, who also continues to succeed in an unconventional manner. Blackburn is a righty, so it can't all be attributed to funky lefty junk.
Lannan has become one of the better "stoppers" in baseball, and stands in the class of Zach Greinke and Dan Haren in that his team gives him plenty of opportunities to end losing streaks. Greinke and Haren do it by baffling hitters with electric stuff, denying baserunners, and resembling Hall of Famers. Lannan, on the other hand, does it with... good God. He locates well and gets ground balls. The question is: can any pitcher who refuses to strike out batters succeed long-term? Is there an example?
Sure, a few (21 active players) have been able to keep their spot in the rotation while posting less than 4 SO/9, but to be compared to Carlos Silva or Brian Meadows isn't going to be taken as a compliment. Most other pitchers on the list are either extreme groundball pitchers (Aaron Cook), or Tom Glavine at ages 22 and 41. Strikeouts are important in the homerun era, when Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham patrol almost 50% of the outfield (Nyjer Morgan covers the other 55%). I expect that Lannan's long run without K's is a fluke and he will push his numbers back up around 5 SO/9 next year.
Edit: Actually, John Lannan matches up pretty well with Nick Blackburn, who also continues to succeed in an unconventional manner. Blackburn is a righty, so it can't all be attributed to funky lefty junk.
This is Not a Plan
From ESPN
The Royals stuck with their original plan and will have right-hander Sidney Ponson, Monday's scheduled starter, pitch the first game, with left-hander Bruce Chen getting the nightcap.
Once again, kudos to Rizzo to see whether or not these AAA guys can get it done. Nobody is showing up to see Bruce Chen get lit up.
The Royals stuck with their original plan and will have right-hander Sidney Ponson, Monday's scheduled starter, pitch the first game, with left-hander Bruce Chen getting the nightcap.
Once again, kudos to Rizzo to see whether or not these AAA guys can get it done. Nobody is showing up to see Bruce Chen get lit up.
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