Second Half Run

The Nats aren't buyers; they ought to be savvy sellers, understanding the value of a draft pick versus taking another team's castoff farmhands. So how does that translate into a "run"?

The Nats finished strong last season when September call-ups were given the chance to succeed without the pressure of being re-designated or planted on the bench (see Maxwell, Justin). The key is to determine which of these guys will be Nationals in 2012, not just the rest of the season. Desmond is off to a better start in July. Mike... er Michael Morse has hit when he has been in the lineup. Roger Bernadina's plate discipline improves each month. Justin Maxwell even has a cameo through Monday. So question now posed: none of these players are WORSE than Willie Harris, and given Nyjer Morgan's shenanigans this season, one could argue that Bernadina should be starting in centerfield everyday, regardless of age, service time, or trade value. Given the Nats lack of outfield prospects, these are their guys for now. If they choose to keep him, it should be Hammer, Bernadina, and Morse most nights with Maxwell spelling the three of them. If a sweet package can be had for the Hammer, it will be tough to turn down considering how barren the cupboard is, but Josh Willingham has been to valuable to give the Nick Johnson treatment. Work a small trade for Morgan to free up room on the 40-man for another outfielder who can obtained...

By trading Adam Dunn. Both Willingham and Dunn's value will never be higher, but Dunn's raw power numbers make him more appealing to other GMs. There are teams with logjams in the outfield, too many bats and not enough positions on the field, and Rizzo needs to exploit that. Get the outfield set now so they aren't still rebuilding when Strasburg is due to walk to New York. Also, feel free to shop around Guzman and Kennedy.

From a personality standpoint, it sucks to trade any of these guys; it isn't like dumping Milton Bradley on a team. These are character guys that the younger players do look up to, but that's the penalty for playing the Jim Bowden error. Freeing up the roster and putting these young players in a position succeed is important and it is what the organization should be focusing on... and with a little luck, maybe catch the nosediving Marlins.

Lee to the Rangers... (trade watch)

Totally shooting down my idea of Nolan Ryan making a lunge for Dunn to fix their first base crisis. ESPN had reported before my Friday afternoon nap that Lee was becoming a Yankee, which made no sense at all, as the Yankees already have 5+ starting pitchers (what was their plan, have 6 starters? move AJ Burnett to long relief?), unless Vasquez was also on the move. Alas, the Rangers bolstered an "interesting" pitching staff with one of the best in the game. Given the shaky financial situation, the Rangers may be out of the trade market for a while, but they still have that gaping hole at first. With Jake Peavy's duct tape wearing off, the White Sox may be less inclined to run at Dunn before taking stock of their starting pitching. The Giants are fading fast, though the Rockies are currently leaning on Jason Giambi to carry the load while Todd Helton decomposes on the DL.

That would leave a small market for Dunn this season. Unless one of those teams is prepared to give up an MLB ready player, expect to see more bubbles on the basepaths.

Guzman Claimed Off Waivers!?!

It doesn't mean anything yet, but it shows that maybe there was a trade market for the shortstop all along. The Red Sox are a team who have had SS issues all season, and a three game sweep at the Yankees may have been just what the Nats needed to get a panic move.

I have no problems with Guzman as a baseball player. He is streaky as a pair of drawers after the Chili Cookoff, but as long as he is hitting over .300, he is an effective major league hitter. I just don't think he has the range to his left to play short any more and is more of a 2B-3B guy defensively.

The Nats should get value for Guzman while they can. They waited too long with Nick Johnson and got little. The savings will help going into the off season, and even if the only get a long shot in return, it is one more step to reloading the farm system, which is probably more important than the half win Guzman will provide these last two months. More than likely, he will slump and lower any potential trade value he may have left.

Make the move... unlike the Johnson and Beimel trades, the other party is the desperate one.

Beimel Dealt, Could Have Done Worse

Honestly, the fact that any of the Nats deplorable bullpen attracted interest is comforting. Joe Beimel is a useful left arm, but his type are available every year at the winter meetings, and can usually be found during free agency. The pull for Beimel are a couple long shots right now, but the depth gained is reassuring. Rizzo may be putting all of his eggs in the pitching basket right now, but he is implementing a plan. That is more than can be said for his predecessor.

Johnson Dealt, but the Nats Could Have Done Better

The next entry will cover the differing philosophies dooming the Nats right now.

Nick Johnson was traded straight-up for Marlins AA pitching extra Aaron Thompson today, right at the deadline. The Nats needed to get younger. Check. They needed to upgrade their AAA pitching depth now that most have been promoted to stop the bleeding at the major league level. OK. The Nats also needed to continue to improve their defense and save as much money as possible going into the August Strasburg bidding, preferably shedding some of their less productive contracts (Guzman, Kearns, Young, Belliard). Neither of these were accomplished. Considering the bounty the Mariners landed for Yuniesky Betancourt, there are suckers out there. Guzman could have been moved while he was hot for prospects, but it the trigger was never pulled.

Back in May, when Big Papi was suffering from Vitamin B withdrawl or Derrick Lee was banged up, Nick Johnson could have been moved for a major league ready prospect. The Red Sox just traded two pitching prospects and a proven major league commodity in Justin Masterson to grab Victor Martinez. Martinez is a better player and more versatile, but had the Nats made the move, they could have gotten a good major league player in return. Instead, they waited and made a riskier move that saved them less money.

There are underlying reasons, those differing philosophies, that reduced Nick Johnson's value.

Now that Nick Johnson has been moved expect to see the following three things:

1. Adam Dunn will see much more time at first base.

2. Austin Kearns, who couldn't be baited into a deal, will be bought out and released.

3. Elijah Dukes and Justin Maxwell will be called up to fill out the roster.

The Nats did very well making smaller moves to improve the team this season. However, these small moves haven't built a fertile farm system similar to the Marlins or Rays. The Pirates unloaded their major league roster for more than twenty prospects this month. It will be very interesting to see how these strategies play out.

Instant Trade Gratification

11.57, 3.00

Those are Joel Hanrahan's ERA and WHIP since joining the Pirates.

100th Post- Lots Going On...

I was going to discuss the closed polls results, and how three of the four options had been rendered obsolete. However, Mr. Rizzo has been busy, closing a couple deals.

Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett

The easiest thing to do is to break this into two separate trades, OF for OF, P for P. From the Nationals perspective, given the players involved, it was an offer Rizzo couldn't refuse. The two areas that needed to be addressed were the bullpen and the defense. Nyjer Morgan more than addresses the defense. He can play CF if necessary, which will allow the Nats to keep Dunn, Willingham, and Dukes fresh in the corners. Harris loses out the most in the deal, as he will probably see his playing time cut in half. Burnett is Rizzo's dream... a left-handed, ground-ball, relief pitcher. He has battled back from injury to become a solid major league reliever and will be under control for a couple more seasons. He will benefit from working with two veteran LOOGYs in Villone and Beimel.

So what did the Nats give up? Starting with Hanrahan, since fans have been dealing with his shenanigans all season. Hanrahan was great last year, but pretty well abused. 84 innings of relief on 69 appearances is a number relievers build toward. Hanrahan had been a starter in 2006 and 2007. Basically, Hanrahan could get back to his 2008 form with a couple months off, but does that even make him as valuable to the Nats as Burnett? Villone is 40. Not quite. Lastings Milledge, on the other hand, doesn't need rest. Who knows what he needs... for him to make up for his defensive deficiencies, he needs to hit as well the premier corner outfielder in the league. Nick Markakis is a good young comp. Does anyone believe that is possible for Milledge? Sure, maybe for a couple months, but he is a natural underachiever, a tease. Guys like JD Drew show flashes of their potential, but rarely put it together for 162 games, and that the player the optimists refuse to see in Milledge. However, after watching him play first hand for a few years, the patterns are obvious.

It is difficult to criticize the Nats for making this move. Milledge offered the current major league roster nothing. Hanrahan had been banished to the mop-up role. Burnett will pitch high-leverage innings and Morgan will start in the outfield five days a week. Honestly, what are the Pirates going to do with the players they got? This trade gets a solid B+ for now and really will not look bad unless Milledge turns into Sammy Sosa.

...

Man, does Elijah Dukes ever field a ball cleanly in the outfield? Stammen's third time through the order woes continue, further indicating that he may have more work to do in AAA before formally claiming a rotation spot for next season. Not sure what is wrong with Nick Johnson, but he isn't showcasing his talent very well for contenders right now... Guzman has made up for a rough outing at the plate with a great dive and throw early in the game. Zimmerman, on the other hand... woof, 3 error games aren't helping the pitchers, especially the relievers. Clippard may not have the stuff to be effective for long runs, though his delivery can be deceptive enough to kill AAA guys.

...

To the poll. The Nats have officially addressed the bullpen. Colome and Tavarez are crappy guys, but almost every team has one of them. Teams try to get a few innings out of them before they wear out their welcome. Manny isn't going to be fired in the immediate future, and Rizzo has earned the right to see his handiwork through. The Nationals haven't dealt Nick Johnson, and have made a few moves that may make that unnecessary. Tough to really say what additional moves can be made to improve a team that dominates innings 1-5, but then stagger back to the clubhouse two out of three times. I'll try to think of a new poll, maybe two.

The symmetry for The Bombs is beautiful, 50 posts in May, 50 in June... it will be difficult to keep that pace through July, but the staff at The Bombs will try.

Moves

The Nationals front office has been busy this weekend. We should probably look at the moves one by one to try and guess what each means.

Ryan Langerhans for Mike Morse

On the surface, this looks like the Nationals are trading one of their surplus major league outfielders. Lastings Milledge had been rumored to be going to Pittsburgh, which probably would have been the preferred move, as Langerhans has more ML value. However, Langerhans has been stuck behind the glut of corner outfielders in the system, and was clearly behind Justin Maxwell in terms of age and Corey Patterson in terms of... ugh. Good for Langerhans, though. He hits well enough to fit into their ML plans, and he fits into Safeco's ginormous outfield so he will see playing time.

What does Mike Morse's arrival mean? The Nats have been running a rotation of Guzman, Gonzalez, and Hernandez through the middle infield, and Belliard is on the roster as well. Belliard isn't going anywhere until the end of the year, and if anything, he is done as a pro. Hernandez just got to the Nats and really hasn't shown much to be considered a bargaining chip. That leaves Alberto Gonzalez and Cristian Guzman, both of whom have been playing their asses off the past month. Gonzalez has been great for the Nats, though his glove has been suspect in 2009. Guzman is signed through the end of next season and is playing the best baseball of his career, despite the erratic defense and free-swinging.

Are the Nats getting into a position to leverage one of their two shortstops, using Morse as short-term insurance until Danny Espinoza is ready?

I give the move C+ for now, with a chance to upgrade, depending on how they can improve their defense up the middle before the trade deadline.

Wait… Your Poll Says “Trade Nick Johnson”?

I have already pointed out that outfield defense should be a point of emphasis on the Nationals. They are currently 7-17, though their run differential suggests that they are slightly better than this. There are a variety of reasons they have failed to close out games, but one can only heap so much hate on the pitching staff. Frankly, the defense hasn’t done much to help out the guy on the hill.

The Nats do not have a natural CF on the roster, and only Willie Harris has had any success while out there. Harris rarely starts and is mainly used as a utility defensive replacement. He is regarded as an above average fielder and below average hitter, but given the chance to play significantly last year he squeezed out a second consecutive season during which his OPS justified consideration at a premium defensive position (OPS+ 98).

Instead, Lastings Milledge was sent out there for several games despite being the worst everyday centerfielder in 2008… not just barely, either. We are talking a Reagan-Mondale margin. If he were hitting, maybe there would be an excuse to send him out there, but considering he couldn’t out-hit Willie Harris, somebody should have reassessed the outfield configuration.

Given two solid corner outfielders in Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns (yeah, he was down in ’08, but he was going to play this year to justify his salary), Jim Bowden addressed the need in centerfield by bringing in two more corner outfielders, neither of whom bring anything to the table defensively. Statue Adam Dunn was stolen via free agency at below-market value and is able to compensate for his diminishing defensive value by representing a power bat the Nats sorely need. Aspiring statue Josh Willingham was acquired via trade and has all the tools to be Adam Dunn-lite, just at 1/20th the cost. Jim Bowden’s plan to build the perfect fantasy baseball outfield would have worked, had it not been for those pesky investigators.

It has taken the Nats management a month to collect the pieces, demote Milledge, and move Dukes over to CF, where he is overmatched. It may look fine right now, but the additional stress of CF is bound to catch up to him and sap his bat, especially once it gets hot in DC. The ideal scenario would be to get out from under Kearns’ contract, start Harris in center, and rotate Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham on the corners. That would have Dunn DH-ing during Interleague play and playing 1B mainly, leaving Johnson to pick up a few innings or starts here and there. However, barring Austin Kearns pulling a 2008 Xavier Nady, the trade market is non-existent. The Lerners won’t buy him out to clear the roster spot, so he is staying, which is fine. He is a high-IQ player who is currently hitting like the player he was in Cinci, and fields his position better than average.

If Kearns stays, that all but guarantees Dunn getting more work at 1B. Johnson is a good guy, and a good hitter, but no longer a premium power hitter. He also has a tendency to find the DL after an intense bowel movement. The smart play, given that the Nats may threaten to climb out of the cellar but will not challenge for the division given their dearth of pitching, would be to hold on to Johnson through Interleague play, then put him out on the market before the All-Star break. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and while a compensatory draft pick would be nice, an arm with a proven minor or major league track record would be substantially better. Right now his stock is as high as it will ever be during the rest of his career, as he is healthy with an OBP at .425.

There are potential suitors as well:
1. Boston: They really need some Big Papi insurance, especially Youk hurting too. Jeff Bailey and Jonathan VanEvery are career minor leaguers who will regress to below-average. Johnson fits Epstein’s profile, as well.
2. Chicago Cubs: Derrek Lee has been awful and clearly not right... if he can’t get right, they will need another bat.
3. Milwaukee: They have been crafty, and really want to get some value for Fielder. If they are on the cusp of contention, they may shake things up. They want to move Braun to 1B eventually, anyways, so renting Johnson for 2-3 months while subtracting Fielder for several prospects and picks might make the most fiscal sense.
4. Detroit: Unlikely to add payroll, but Johnson’s salary is manageable, and they have some arms available if Carlos Guillen pulls the Miggy T and reveals he is also 2 years older than his listed age, which he is currently looking like.

A few others may pop up as well. Management brought in several big bats to address what they apparently thought were the issues with the worst team in major league baseball. They remain the worst team in baseball, and should probably take a new approach.