Improvement in the Win Column, Though Not Much Else

The Nats embarrassed everybody last season by starting 0-7, and then staggering to 4-15 before winning the last game against Philly (a rare gem tossed by Olsen). Given that ALL of these games were against rivals from the NL East, it was immediately clear who the worst team in the division would be. Going into their July 4th games against the Braves, their record against divisional opponents stood at 6-31.

6 and 31!!!!

The Nats also closed out a less-than-stellar 2008 campaign by 11 of their final 14 to the NL East.

So what does starting 4-5 mean? It means that the baseball gods really are not punishing the Nats anymore. Their Pythagorean numbers suggest they are still playing sub-.400 baseball, but it is way early. Last year, they blew all the close games... this season they pretend they are before making an Indiana Jones escape with the win. And Ryan Zimmerman had been in hiding for a couple games until blasting out of the dugout last night. At 4-5 it isn't as clear who the worst team in the division is... though if I were betting with Phil Mickelson's money, I'd say the Nats.

A ten game homestand against non-NL East teams will be a welcome change, even if it is against playoff caliber teams. It will give the Nats a chance to better figure out who they are, and more importantly, who the hell their pitchers are.

Bergmann Fired

Rather than watching him struggle through another inning full of gopher balls and near gopher balls, the Nats designated Jason Bergmann for assignment and brought back Scott Olsen today. Bergmann never really stood a chance, as his flyball tendencies never played well at Nats Park. It is shocking that of the Nats 12 opening day pitchers, two are already gone (though they look to be playing the DL hokey-pokie on Mock). This doesn't say much about the front office's ability to assess the talent and results of spring training, as the same disaster occurred last season.

At some point, the Nats have to realize that a play is out of options for a reason: he isn't good enough to stay on the roster! Even though the organization depth resembles a kiddie pool, they are going to have to let some of these guys hit the waiver wire, and if they get claimed, well that's just the price they'll have to pay for the Bowden era. Bergmann, though prone to the long ball, probably should have been worked back into a starter to up his value, but the last season it became clear that he was always going to be an odd man out, though just good enough to not get canned like Colome, or shipped off like Hanrahan.

Olsen and Justin Maxwell come back in time to enjoy a winnable homestand against Milwaukee, Colorado, and LA. You hope that Maxwell sticks somewhere, because he is in a make-or-break season. Olsen will likely reenter the rotation and provides another left arm to weak staff. Marquis, Lannan, and Livan are all fine #3 or 4 starters, but somebody has to have the mentality to be the #1 guy. Olsen probably isn't that guy, even when healthy, but the Nats probably ought to get his stock up. They are going to need to make some trades to get some fresh arms and bats.

Yikes!! Again!!!

I don't think much can be learned from these Phillies games other than that team is REALLY in their heads. They have proven they can put up runs, even with Zim out of the lineup (that and Kyle Kendrick sucks). The Nats have to get out of Philly and let their pitching settle down, because right now everyone is missing spots, trying too hard to make a pitch.

Jermaine Dye-ed Last Season

But was it his fault?

For those of you engrossed with split stats, you may have notice that Jermaine Dye was replaced by a hitting mannequin on August 1st. My fantasy team sure did, plummeting from second to 5th and getting blasted in the playoffs.

Dye had enjoyed a career renaissance arriving in Chicago, despite having suffered one of the more gruesome baseball injuries ever. He teamed with Jim Thome and Paul Konerko to for one of the most 3-5 punches in baseball. However, the White Sox felt obliged to move on with Thome closing in on 40, so they moved him to L.A. for little in return. Usually a "surrender" trade will mentally affect veterans, but the lack of protection and runners on base ahead of Dye looks to have had an effect as well.

While Dye is an ideal offensive fit for the Nationals, adding additional protection to Dunn and Zimmerman, the defensive ramifications would be disastrous. Dunn and Dye would likely never be able to play simultaneous, and Willingham and Dye together would be putting to much pressure on Morgan in center. So while Dye may still be able to contribute to a team, it will likely have to be in the American League.

Was Marquis Being Squeezed?

Probably not. He cruised the first three innings, as Phils adjusted to the ball being up and out... when he did try to drive the ball down in the zone, the Phils wisely took the pitches that really were not borderline. A sinkerballer's "out" pitch is somewhat unique, but not all that different from the cutter. While pitchers who rely on their fastball to set up their pitches out of the zone (slider, curveball, splitter, changeup, or a plus fastball) to record outs, preferably of the swing and miss variety, the sinker and cutter rely on working withing the zone and playing away from the sweet spot of the bat. Right now, the Phillies know Marquis was erratic in camp, and are guessing that he will not locate multiple sinkers in a row. They are waiting for the pitch out and up.

I would expect him to pitch better at home this weekend against Milwaukee. The Brew is middle of the pack in most offensive categories, and trot out 39 year-old Greg Zaun to handle the catching duties, yet to get a hit this season.

Eephus Hernandez

There is something quite elegant about a noodle 12-6 curveball that registers 63 on the radar gun and sorrow in the score book for all those foolish enough to swing at it. The modern day Eddie Harris, Livan Hernandez left in all on the field, including his fastball. After leading the NL in innings and batters faced three straight seasons, the Nats set him free to pursue a playoff birth (the trade netted Garrett Mock and Matt Chico). Livan then became more of a punchline that a pitcher, culminating in 2008 by getting hit more than those topless Miley Cyrus pictures. Of course, Rizzo went and rescued him from the Mets after he shut the Nats down twice.

How he does it?



It is really hard to say.



Unlike most pitchers, the key probably lies within his ability to get four hittable pitches to work at such vastly different speeds. It takes a patient hitter to lay off a 64 mph strike. He also waits to add that fourth pitch in the second and third time through the lineup, giving the hitter one more thing to think about.

Now Hold It... Right There.

Johan was watching too many MASN commercials and was lulled by the Hammer's husky southern drawl. Willingham has the talent to go scorching hot for a few weeks, and he is going to need to if Riggleman continues to roll the dice with this abomination:
Morgan: .081
Taveras: .045
Guzman: .105
Yes, those are the 2009 ISO numbers for the top 3 hitters the Nats lineup. ISO is a good barometer of the hitter's ability to hit for extra bases (SLG-AVG)... and anything under .100 is bad. Anything over .200 is pretty good. Anything under .060 is a pitcher. There is NO POINT to batting Taveras any higher than 8th. Morgan is a good leadoff hitter, and Guzman is a swinger that is better suited for a lower lineup spot. Some timely hitting from the Hammer probably saved this from being a 2-1 loss.

Back to the axiom, better lucky than good. And we shall save Livan for later.

Better Lucky than Good

Right now, the National are not clearly the worst team in baseball. Oh yeah, we could all rattle our SABR and prove how bad the Nats have actually played the first five games. But the difference this season is that with slightly better defense and baserunning, the Nats have been able to make few timely plays to win games.

Matt Capps is a ticking timebomb... I'm pretty sure he just walked me to load the bases. While the options are not at all appealing, now we know why Mike MacDougal was exhumed.

Man, What a Beatdown

There have been a few positives that have come out of the first games. They do not even come close to outweighing some of the negatives, but there is reason to believe that the Nats have improved in a couple areas.

Left-handed relief: A few days ago, I realized that Joe Beimel was still unsigned (the Rockies since signed him to a crappy minor league deal) and was pissed the Nats did nothing to bring him back. Well, it is difficult to argue with their decision, as Burnett has produced consistent numbers with sustained "success" for two years now. The key is keeping him from having to appear in eighty games. Jesse English should be able to handle the lower leverage situations without during 5-2 deficits into 8-2 deficits, and occasionally stepping in to get a key 7th inning out.

There are many more reasons to worry. The bomb aside, Ian Desmond looked horribly overmatched with a runner on second and 2 out, hacking furiously at balls out of the zone. He should have that arrogance about him, knowing crappy relief pitchers will waste pitches to him because balls in the zone are problematic. That, and he may be after a couple dubious records in the field. The growing pains will make fans long for Guzman.

Jason Marquis looked shaky, almost Daniel Cabrera at time, but the 87 mph meatball deposited by Ryan Howard off the Acela sign was inexcusable. If anything, miss to Howard and pitch to Werth... don't let Howard mash a freebie. Just bad decision making and execution.

Right field is still struggling, and Cristian Guzman's cameo almost turned hilarious. Both Harris and Morse deserve about a month before searching for alternatives.

The Phillies are good, but those optimistic 78 win predictions are flying out the window quickly.

9 Walks, 4 Strikeouts

HOLY CRAP!

Counter that with a wonderful 3 walks and 11 strikeout out of the other dugout and what you just saw was a AAAA team get massacred by a Major League team.

Other notes:

The Nats made the game's only error.
The Phillies hit two home runs; the Nats hit into two double plays.
Roy Halladay doubled hit career RBI total with his third career hit.
Pudge smacked three hits, including two doubles, and was never involved in any scoring.
53, 62, 49, 60, 56, 52: These are the strike percentages of the Nats pitchers.
The 62 and 60 belonged to Jesse English and Jason Bergmann, who combined for only 18 pitches.
One of Jason Bergmann's 3 strikes was crushed by Polanco for a two out grand slam.

And THAT is how to drop the opener 11-1.