Update: PAC 12

PAC-12

Summary: Considering how the first couple months of the season unfolded, I would not be against giving Tres Tinkle the Peyton Manning treatment and nominating him for Conference Player of the Year.  I do not think any team has underachieved to a greater degree this year.  In a sloppy PAC-12, they should have finished at least 8^th.  I am glad that I stuck by my guns on Oregon.  They righted the ship quickly once Dillon Brooks returned.  Dana Altman has done a great job of rotating his role players and getting the most out of every player minute.  UCLA’s sweep at altitude shows how efficient their machine is (or possibly how large the delta is between the Top 3 and next 3.  I wrote off Arizona early, but those losses look pretty good right now.  Their Euro connection is simply not defendable by any standard scheme.  I will be interesting how they handle Oregon’s press.  USC played a porous non-conference schedule, but beat all-comers, so .500 in league play gets them in.  The question is whether Colorado and/or Utah can distinguish themselves from the pack.  The Buffalos hit the wall hard to start league but they also played 4 of the Top 5 teams.  Not an excuse, but just a barometer of what to expect when the Washingtons, OSU come up on the schedule.  A home upset of Oregon would be huge. 

What I got wrong: California has ridden a suffocating defense to decent computer numbers.  They just do not have the talent level to back up the results.  But in a top-heavy conference in which they only have to play UCLA and USC once, 10-8 may earn them a bid.

Prognosis: I think (and many people agree) this is it for Lorenzo Romar.  6 straight years with NBA caliber talent and they have nothing to show for it.  The Huskies need to find another direction as Fultz bolts.  I’d like to keep my preseason Top 3 intact, but that is shear stubbornness.  UCLA has distinguished itself as a 1 seed (vulnerable, yes) and Arizona/Oregon gotta dig it out for second fiddle.  It is very possible that there is only one other bid to be had here, and the pecking order is USC, Utah, Cal, and Colorado.  Lots can happen in February.  I am extremely happy that UW, Stanford, ASU, and WSU played exactly to form, and likely will continue to do so.

P12	Preseason	Realtime
1	Oregon	UCLA
2	Arizona	Oregon
3	UCLA	Arizona
4	Utah	USC
5	USC	Utah
6	Colorado	California
7	Oregon State	Colorado
8	Washington	Washington
9	California	Stanford
10	Stanford	Arizona State
11	Arizona State	Washington State
12	Washington State	Oregon State

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Update: Big Ten

Big Ten

Summary: I feel that this conference is Jekyll and Hyde every night.  Top to bottom, they overachieved in November, and then underachieved in December.  Minnesota and Rutgers have begun downward spirals and Penn State and Illinois are squarely NIT material.  Michigan played a beast of a schedule… very little middle ground to build the profile, so their numbers are shaking out poorly.  Northwestern jumped out to a good conference start, but that is masked by the fact they played nothing but the basement.  Though not everyone agrees, I still feel that Wisconsin will play their way to the top and secure a 2 seed or better.  Despite underachieving, their 3 losses are to 3 of the Top 15 teams in the country.  It will be interesting to see if Greg Gard has the fortitude not just to win in March, but to also maintain the Badger program.  To call Indiana and Michigan State disappoint is to ignore history.  The Spartans have had no problem digging out of holes, but it isn’t the 7 losses so much as the way they got there, being blown out repeatedly.  They are in for now, but really need wins over Indiana and Purdue this week to get the monkey off their back.  The Hoosiers have got to be thinking the same thing, as those Kansas and UNC wins seem like last season at this point.

What I got wrong: Iowa.  I originally had them fourth before sliding them to the top of my bubble candidates.  This is a young team that is just not mentally tough enough to string together enough quality minutes to finish in the top half.  They stand a chance to improve dramatically next year, even without Peter Jok.  Minnesota has exceeded expectations to this point and is really greater than the sum of its parts based off their style and tenacity. 

Prognosis:  Purdue is unfortunately only going as far as Caleb Swanigan can will them.  They hold the win over the Badgers and that could be enough for the league, but I’m sticking with the trio of Hayes, Happ, and Koenig to pull away.  After that, this is a barren wasteland of inconsistency.  Maryland may have gamed the schedule to assure a bid, but everyone else needs to avoid 10-12 losses.  Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern are legitimate bubble teams, so this could be anywhere from a 5 to 8 bid conference, with the conference tourney being wide open.

B10	Preseason	Realtime
1	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
2	Indiana	Purdue
3	Purdue	Indiana
4	Michigan State	Maryland
5	Maryland	Michigan State
6	Iowa	Michigan
7	Ohio State	Minnesota
8	Michigan	Northwestern
9	Northwestern	Ohio State
10	Nebraska	Nebraska
11	Illinois	Iowa
12	Penn State	Penn State
13	Minnesota	Illinois
14	Rutgers	Rutgers

Update: Southeastern

Southeastern

Summary: I don’t think that the SEC is any better or worse than projected.  There is a lot of NIT fodder out there and very few NCAA locks.  Sindarius Thornwell proved he is one of the most important players in the league.  With him in the lineup, the Gamecocks are a Top 20 team.  Florida will visit them this week to give a feel for whom is playing runner up to the Wildcats.  If you are sniffing for a fourth team coming out this conference, I’d lean more toward Mississippi State over Arkansas at this point.  The Razorbacks are off their game.  Not sure if Mike Anderson is deliberately slowing his team’s tempo because of the personnel, or they just cannot execute.  Georgia is not terrible, but they also have not shown the ability to regularly knock down enough shots to beat tournament (NCAA or NIT) caliber talent.

What I got wrong: Florida has transitioned quickly to a team that can generate enough offense with their defense to win games.  Not quite on the same level as West Virginia, but they should pretty easily get to 12-13 SEC win and a 7 seed.  The conference’s staggering 1-27 record against the Sagarin Top 25 reads more like the MEAC than a major.

Prognosis: Nothing is stopping Kentucky from running through the SEC slate with 1 or fewer losses.  I see Calipari easing off the accelerator to preserve his freshmen’s legs, but they are a clear cut 1 seed.  Obviously, USC and Florida are mid-bracket teams that will be tough outs in the round of 32 for higher seeds.  Auburn has shown some flashes of brilliance, but countered it with extended stretches of poor play.  MSU and Georgia are trending better than Arkansas right now, but all three are play-in game material at best.  I kept Alabama in that group at the bottom.  They are playing better than that and will finish with 7 or so SEC wins, but their ceiling is low.  Vandy and Ole Miss are much better candidates to get their crap together.  It’s hard to imagine Missouri not improving at some point, but they don’t even seem close to winning an SEC game this year… 2 wins would be a minor miracle.

SEC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Kentucky	Kentucky
2	South Carolina	South Carolina
3	Arkansas	Florida
4	Auburn	Arkansas
5	Mississippi	Mississippi State
6	Georgia	Georgia
7	Mississippi State	Texas A&M
8	Texas A&M	Auburn
9	Tennessee	Mississippi
10	Florida	Vanderbilt
11	Vanderbilt	Tennessee
12	Louisiana State	Alabama
13	Alabama	Louisiana State
14	Missouri	Missouri