Update: Big Ten

Big Ten

Summary: I feel that this conference is Jekyll and Hyde every night.  Top to bottom, they overachieved in November, and then underachieved in December.  Minnesota and Rutgers have begun downward spirals and Penn State and Illinois are squarely NIT material.  Michigan played a beast of a schedule… very little middle ground to build the profile, so their numbers are shaking out poorly.  Northwestern jumped out to a good conference start, but that is masked by the fact they played nothing but the basement.  Though not everyone agrees, I still feel that Wisconsin will play their way to the top and secure a 2 seed or better.  Despite underachieving, their 3 losses are to 3 of the Top 15 teams in the country.  It will be interesting to see if Greg Gard has the fortitude not just to win in March, but to also maintain the Badger program.  To call Indiana and Michigan State disappoint is to ignore history.  The Spartans have had no problem digging out of holes, but it isn’t the 7 losses so much as the way they got there, being blown out repeatedly.  They are in for now, but really need wins over Indiana and Purdue this week to get the monkey off their back.  The Hoosiers have got to be thinking the same thing, as those Kansas and UNC wins seem like last season at this point.

What I got wrong: Iowa.  I originally had them fourth before sliding them to the top of my bubble candidates.  This is a young team that is just not mentally tough enough to string together enough quality minutes to finish in the top half.  They stand a chance to improve dramatically next year, even without Peter Jok.  Minnesota has exceeded expectations to this point and is really greater than the sum of its parts based off their style and tenacity. 

Prognosis:  Purdue is unfortunately only going as far as Caleb Swanigan can will them.  They hold the win over the Badgers and that could be enough for the league, but I’m sticking with the trio of Hayes, Happ, and Koenig to pull away.  After that, this is a barren wasteland of inconsistency.  Maryland may have gamed the schedule to assure a bid, but everyone else needs to avoid 10-12 losses.  Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern are legitimate bubble teams, so this could be anywhere from a 5 to 8 bid conference, with the conference tourney being wide open.

B10	Preseason	Realtime
1	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
2	Indiana	Purdue
3	Purdue	Indiana
4	Michigan State	Maryland
5	Maryland	Michigan State
6	Iowa	Michigan
7	Ohio State	Minnesota
8	Michigan	Northwestern
9	Northwestern	Ohio State
10	Nebraska	Nebraska
11	Illinois	Iowa
12	Penn State	Penn State
13	Minnesota	Illinois
14	Rutgers	Rutgers