8 March Bracket

Arizona State falls to first team out, now needs lots of help.  Marquette on the line today, assuming OSU or ND doesn't run them off.

3 MARCH Bracket

										Pods
	1	Virginia				Kansas	1			San Diego
	16	Texas Southern				Hampton	16			Boise
	16	Radford								Nashville
Pittsburgh								Wichita		Detroit
	8	Butler				Middle Tennessee	8			Wichita
	9	Southern California				Arizona State	9			Dallas
										Pittsburgh
	4	Kentucky				Clemson	4			Charlotte
	13	Vermont				Buffalo	13
Boise								Boise
	5	Texas Christian				Nevada	5
	12	Louisiana				Kansas State	12
						Missouri	12
			ATLANTA		OMAHA					Last 5 Safe
	3	Tennessee				Auburn	3			Florida State
	14	East Tennessee St				Northern Kentucky	14			Oklahoma
Nashville								Dallas		Baylor
	6	Ohio State				Houston	6			NC State
	11	Oklahoma				Florida State	11			Louisville
	7	Miami				Creighton	7			Last 5 In
	10	Saint Bonaventure				Louisville	10			Missouri
Nashville								Detroit		Kansas State
	2	Cincinnati				Purdue	2			Alabama
	15	Charleston				Stephen F. Austin	15			Texas
										Providence
				SAN ANTONIO
										First 5 Out
	1	Xavier				Villanova	1			Mississippi State
	16	Niagara				Saint Francis PA	16			Notre Dame
						Florida Gulf Coast	16			UCLA
Detroit								Pittsburgh		Oklahoma State
	8	Seton Hall				Florida	8			Marquette
	9	Saint Mary's				Virginia Tech	9
										Next 5 Up
	4	Gonzaga				West Virginia	4			Penn State
	13	South Dakota State				Murray State	13			Syracuse
San Diego								San Diego		Nebraska
	5	Texas Tech				Michigan	5			Georgia
	12	Providence				New Mexico State	12			Utah
	12	Alabama
			LOS ANGELES		BOSTON					The Rest
	3	Wichita State				Michigan State	3			Western Kentucky
	14	Montana				Bucknell	14			LSU
Dallas								Wichita		Washington
	6	Arizona				Texas A&M	6			Saint John's
	11	Texas				NC State	11			San Diego State
										Boise State
	7	Arkansas				Rhode Island	7
	10	Baylor				Loyola	10
Charlotte								Charlotte
	2	Duke				North Carolina	2
	15	Santa Barbara				Penn	15

So, Nebraska's stay in the bracket lasted all of 1 day. A close win that would have maintained their KenPom and Sagarin numbers could have kept them on the cut line, but like Western Kentucky, their trend rating plummets with no way to make it up.  They need a lot of help from Providence, Alabama, Texas, and Boston College.  Penn State beating Purdue today would not help, as the Big 10 isn't getting 6 bids.

Of course the MAAC and Big South abandons all convention and the top 2 teams are dead coming out of there.  Iona  could squeeze out a 15, but those other potential winners aren't getting off the 16 line. My preseason picks had Manhattan and Liberty, but I'm sliding in Niagara and Radford for today.

Rhode Island stands pat at 7... The Bonnie could totally end up with a better seed if they beat them again in the A-10 tourney.  And Davidson could make it a 3-bid conference.  They are playing better than anyone right now.

The quadrant formula seems to work, but like everything else, it is flawed because of arbitrary cut lines.  I think I may tweak it to reduce the value of Quad 2/3/4 a little.  Right now it is .9/.3/.15/.075 for wins and .2/.4/.6/.8 for losses.  Rewards for getting wins, particularly big wins, but does punish for losses, and can't boost a resume by getting your teeth kicked in by Q1... need at least 25% to push the needle.