Conference Updates: MEAC, SWAC, Big West

Big West

Summary: Long Beach has 5 Top 25 losses, which is pretty hard to assemble through the non-conference slate.  I have the Top 4 assemble in some order, and the Niners should still be able to pull through.

What I got wrong: Riverside is one of the worst teams in the country no matter how you slice it.  Cal Poly is not.

Prognosis: Staying the course with LBST, with a glut of the 3 behind them at 10-6/9-7… the rest of the conference is not making moves.  Hawaii had a chance to show up in some of their local marquee games, and looked game at times, but lost all 4.  I could easily see the winner of this conference relegated to the play-in game.

BW	Preseason	Realtime
1	Long Beach	Long Beach
2	Davis	Davis
3	Irvine	Irvine
4	Northridge	Northridge
5	Riverside	Santa Barbara
6	Santa Barbara	Hawaii
7	Hawaii	Poly
8	Fullerton	Fullerton
9	Poly	Riverside

Mid-Eastern Athletic

Summary: Very little good news coming out of the MEAC.  Usually they have a couple teams thoroughly outmatched, but this has been unexpected.  These teams are getting blown out every time in buy games (except one), and failing to steal any games against their peers.  In years past, you could get excited about a Coppin State, Hampton, Norfolk State, etc… The thought was Howard had the pieces in place to be that team, but without James Daniel, they are lost.

What I got wrong: LaVelle Moton should be in line for a pay raise at another school.  Typically, NC Central would have to make some NCAA waves to get him noticed, but I think VCU would be going further with him than Wil Wade.  Win over Missouri (OK, Tigers suck) and close games against Ohio State and LSU show that they can do damage if they can get to the stage.  I also was not tracking Savannah State’s change in philosophy facing sanctions, which while exciting, will probably not produce many wins.

Prognosis:  I feel a little dirty pointing out what I called right here, but this is one where I do need to shuffle the deck a little.  SC State and Howard will improve, but I see little reason to believe anyone outside the top 4 will make a run.

MEAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Howard	North Carolina Central
2	Savannah State	Howard
3	Norfolk State	South Carolina State
4	South Carolina State	Norfolk State
5	Hampton	Hampton
6	North Carolina Central	Bethune Cookman
7	North Carolina A&T	Morgan State
8	Bethune Cookman	Maryland Eastern Shore
9	Morgan State	Savannah State
10	Maryland Eastern Shore	North Carolina A&T
11	Florida A&M	Florida A&M
12	Delaware State	Delaware State
13	Coppin State	Coppin State

Southwestern Athletic

Summary: BOOM!! Nailed it.  Texas Southern is solid.  A&M, Pine Bluff, and Valley are total butt.  Everything in the middle is a crapshoot.

What I got wrong: Most publications had Jackson State closer to the top than 5^th.

Prognosis: Texas Southern can really give teams trouble from the 15 seed.  I think their number will depress a little during conference play, but they should be able to make that line.  Mike Davis has plenty of tourney experience to prevent a slip up… but if they do, Southern will be there to pounce.

SWAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Texas Southern	Texas Southern
2	Southern	Southern
3	Alabama State	Alabama State
4	Alcorn State	Alcorn State
5	Jackson State	Jackson State
6	Grambling State	Grambling State
7	Prairie View A&M	Prairie View A&M
8	Mississippi Valley State	Mississippi Valley State
9	Alabama A&M	Alabama A&M
10	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference Updates: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big South

America East

Summary: Calling this one well thus far.  New Hampshire, Vermont, and Albany are clearly the 3 best teams, with an ocean down to the rest of the conference.  Maine is the weakest sister by a mile right now.

What I got wrong:  Hartford owns a win over Boston College, but has nothing else to lean on.  UMBC has not beaten anyone of note, and only recently even played anyone near the Top 100, but looks like an upper half team.

Prognosis: New Hampshire still looks to be the 16 seed breaking out of here.  Albany owns the best win (Penn St) and UNH was absolutely massacred by a fiery WVU team, but still look to be the most consistent team.  Vermont has played the best schedule and could have had a nice resume booster over Houston but let it slip away.

Preseason	Realtime
New Hampshire	New Hampshire
Vermont	Vermont
Albany	Albany
Hartford	UMBC
Umass-Lowell	Stony Brook
Stony Brook	Umass-Lowell
UMBC	Hartford
Binghamton	Binghamton
Maine	Maine

Atlantic Sun

Summary: Feeling like I am 75% here as well. Florida Gulf Coast is playing like a single digit seed, but will likely have their numbers depressed by a dreadful conference.

What I got wrong:  North Florida is a fluky last second shot away from having zero D-1 wins.  Kennesaw State is exhibiting some of the same defensive tendencies that got Al Skinner pushed out of BC and don’t look anywhere ready to contend.  NJIT on the other hand has turned the screws on a couple Big Ten teams and probably will not be taken so lightly going forward.

Prognosis: FGCU is going to dominate this conference.  They do not have a bad loss and hold a win over fellow bracket buster Arlington.  Jacksonville and Lipscomb are strong, but the best win between the two of the came against a team that just had to remove its coach for assaulting his players.

SUN	Preseason	Realtime
1	Florida Gulf Coast	Florida Gulf Coast
2	North Florida	Jacksonville
3	Jacksonville	Lipscomb
4	Lipscomb	NJIT
5	Kennesaw State	North Florida
6	Stetson	Kennesaw State
7	NJIT	Stetson
8	USC Upstate	USC Upstate

Big South

Summary: Liberty isn’t going to win this conference without Caleb Homesley.  The guy is a ninja.  That puts Winthrop back in the driver’s seat and UNC Asheville running shotgun…. Longwood and Presbyterian are not coming along for this ride.

What I got wrong: Gardner Webb looks feisty and could give teams fits.

Prognosis: Interesting two-horse race, where Winthrop plays the role of surgeon, while Asheville is a defensive nightmare.  I like the team with the tourney pedigree to take the title, but UNCA played a fair schedule and nearly stole one against the Buckeyes.  If it can work for Huggy Bear in Morgantown, it can easily disrupt the slop in the Big South.  Gardner Webb’s win over Nebraska looks pretty sweet right about now as well.  My wife was also amazed that Radford had D-1 basketball… she was even more impressed when she found out they even made the tournament a couple times… not this year though.

BS	Preseason	Realtime
1	Liberty	Winthrop
2	Winthrop	UNC Asheville
3	UNC Asheville	Gardner Webb
4	Charleston Southern	Liberty
5	Campbell	Charleston Southern
6	High Point	Campbell
7	Radford	High Point
8	Gardner Webb	Radford
9	Longwood	Longwood
10	Presbyterian	Presbyterian

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