Small Conferences

OK, my honest bad... the Sun Belt has no business being lumped in here, but they fall at the end of the alphabet and I forgot them.

That being said... this looks like the "New Valley"... the mid major that is growing competent basketball programs and finding new player pipelines.  Scott Cross has UT Arlington humming, Troy is sharp, GSU and GSU are winning talent over their BCS counterparts.  The bottom of the conference has fallen mightily, as it seems just yesterday Little Rock was rocking Purdue.

Liberty was killed by injury last year, but should be back to top Asheville and Winthrop.

The Big West was maddeningly mediocre last season.  Long Beach looked like they blew an easy slate, but it turns out that they are not very good.  Reggie Theus is probably missing the days of easy recruiting and homecourt advantage in Las Cruces; Northridge isn't getting much better this season. Davis will slide back to the field after last year's run.  I expect Hawaii to pull it together for a run after having to sit last year out.

The Northeast Conference is a total wild card.  St. Francis PA looks the deepest, but I could see any of the top 8 sneaking into Dayton and making some noise.

Florida Gulf Coast is so much deeper and more prepared than the rest of this conference it is not even funny.  In other seasons, I would give Lipscomb some hope, but I'd expect FGCU to nearly run the table.

The Southland is balanced.

MEAC is much stronger than the SWAC this year... the SWAC is really struggling right now, both on and off the court, but Mike Davis at least seems to have Texas Southern competing at the level of the other small conferences.  The top 4 in the MEAC look OK.

Conference Updates: MEAC, SWAC, Big West

Big West

Summary: Long Beach has 5 Top 25 losses, which is pretty hard to assemble through the non-conference slate.  I have the Top 4 assemble in some order, and the Niners should still be able to pull through.

What I got wrong: Riverside is one of the worst teams in the country no matter how you slice it.  Cal Poly is not.

Prognosis: Staying the course with LBST, with a glut of the 3 behind them at 10-6/9-7… the rest of the conference is not making moves.  Hawaii had a chance to show up in some of their local marquee games, and looked game at times, but lost all 4.  I could easily see the winner of this conference relegated to the play-in game.

BW	Preseason	Realtime
1	Long Beach	Long Beach
2	Davis	Davis
3	Irvine	Irvine
4	Northridge	Northridge
5	Riverside	Santa Barbara
6	Santa Barbara	Hawaii
7	Hawaii	Poly
8	Fullerton	Fullerton
9	Poly	Riverside

Mid-Eastern Athletic

Summary: Very little good news coming out of the MEAC.  Usually they have a couple teams thoroughly outmatched, but this has been unexpected.  These teams are getting blown out every time in buy games (except one), and failing to steal any games against their peers.  In years past, you could get excited about a Coppin State, Hampton, Norfolk State, etc… The thought was Howard had the pieces in place to be that team, but without James Daniel, they are lost.

What I got wrong: LaVelle Moton should be in line for a pay raise at another school.  Typically, NC Central would have to make some NCAA waves to get him noticed, but I think VCU would be going further with him than Wil Wade.  Win over Missouri (OK, Tigers suck) and close games against Ohio State and LSU show that they can do damage if they can get to the stage.  I also was not tracking Savannah State’s change in philosophy facing sanctions, which while exciting, will probably not produce many wins.

Prognosis:  I feel a little dirty pointing out what I called right here, but this is one where I do need to shuffle the deck a little.  SC State and Howard will improve, but I see little reason to believe anyone outside the top 4 will make a run.

MEAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Howard	North Carolina Central
2	Savannah State	Howard
3	Norfolk State	South Carolina State
4	South Carolina State	Norfolk State
5	Hampton	Hampton
6	North Carolina Central	Bethune Cookman
7	North Carolina A&T	Morgan State
8	Bethune Cookman	Maryland Eastern Shore
9	Morgan State	Savannah State
10	Maryland Eastern Shore	North Carolina A&T
11	Florida A&M	Florida A&M
12	Delaware State	Delaware State
13	Coppin State	Coppin State

Southwestern Athletic

Summary: BOOM!! Nailed it.  Texas Southern is solid.  A&M, Pine Bluff, and Valley are total butt.  Everything in the middle is a crapshoot.

What I got wrong: Most publications had Jackson State closer to the top than 5^th.

Prognosis: Texas Southern can really give teams trouble from the 15 seed.  I think their number will depress a little during conference play, but they should be able to make that line.  Mike Davis has plenty of tourney experience to prevent a slip up… but if they do, Southern will be there to pounce.

SWAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Texas Southern	Texas Southern
2	Southern	Southern
3	Alabama State	Alabama State
4	Alcorn State	Alcorn State
5	Jackson State	Jackson State
6	Grambling State	Grambling State
7	Prairie View A&M	Prairie View A&M
8	Mississippi Valley State	Mississippi Valley State
9	Alabama A&M	Alabama A&M
10	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Arkansas Pine Bluff

2017 Predictions: Small Conferences

The way I am building my bracket is maintain a tracker of each conference, top to bottom.  "Wow, that sounds like a lot of work."  Well so is playing basketball!

I strongly feel that much of my "expert" analysis come from understanding what is happening on the court, sometimes moreso than the players, coaches, and broadcast teams... actually, especially the broadcast teams.  With these teams, it is that much more difficult because despite dozens more coverage options, they are rarely on TV.  It's not like I can just roll on over to Bender Arena and catch a game any time, as my wife and kids would change the locks.

I have captured the screen shot so I can look back and compare results, as well as track standings, hot teams, and use this to populate the bracket.



These are clearly all one bid leagues that will typically have a great deal of entropy transitioning from non-conference to conference schedules, so it will be interesting to see who lives up to their billing.

What I am pretty sure of:
Long Beach State looks to be the class of the Big West, with recent losses at Irvine and Hawaii.  I can't imagine them losing more than 3 conference games.

Bryant will rebound in a big way.  The Northeast isn't very strong, which allowed a suspect Fairleigh Dickinson team to sneak through last year.

Stephen F. Austin will lose games in conference this year.  That hasn't always been a given, dropping a 53-1 spot the last 3 years... 12-6 looks about right, but could fall further if the new staff and team don't click right away.

Howard is a pick and roll away from being a dominant force in the MEAC, but right now rely too much on their guards' ability to get to the rim.  That ability is a great equalizer, but can be easy to stop when the calls are not going your way.

Not picking on any doormats either, but there will be some rough transition seasons out there.