28 DEC Bracket

The #1 seeds have stayed pretty consistent.  I've seen a lot of love for Arizona State as #1.  The numbers just aren't there, and the bottom-heavy PAC-12 is going to take the shine of their NC wins.  If they win the conference convincingly, they may get there, but right now, I see them jostling the 2-4 lines.  Purdue is likely a little over-seeded.  Their conference slate starts light and sees MSU only once.  I feel like a three team shuffle between ASU, Texas A&M, and Purdue would make me feel better.

I don't like 3 Big 12 Teams on the 3 line, and expect Kansas to move up as well, but they need a run to find themselves ahead of the Sun Devils.

Notre Dame has cratered their way into the toughest road possible.  I still think that they pull things together for a top 3 conference finish, as the schedule is favorable the next few weeks, and for the most part, you can chalk those two bad in-state losses to poor luck come March, but in December they look brutal.

Auburn and Southern Cal have been pulled out of the dumpster and dusted off, much like Arizona and Miami last round.  The schools have really pushed their recruiters and assistants out on a limb, and the toothless NCAA only bullies the little guys.  It's been quiet enough on that front this month to think that the feds will let the basketball component plead out and testify against the deep pockets of Adidas.  The middle men like Dawkins will get hung out to dry for facilitating it.  With the amount of Louisville turnover/turmoil, I still cannot imagine that they don't have a "come to God" moment and sit this one out.  Who knows what other players they are going to find dirt on...

Treading on Thin Ice: Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Baylor, Maryland, Minnesota.  These teams can come off a big week and look like a top 5 seed, or crap the bed to the bottom third of the conference and stumble out quickly.  Minnesota and Notre Dame are the most perplexing.  The other three are good, but not great teams.

Last 5 In: BYU, Houston, UCLA, Butler, St. John's.  The Johnnies are likely behind the Friars now, as they were dismantled at home after I pulled the numbers.  UCLA dug themselves a nice hole and have gone Bane to get going.  It will be interesting to see how high they can climb, as their real conference games don't start until February, and they close with 3 on the road, @Utah, Colorado, and USC.  Could murder their season.  Butler has their Super Bowl Saturday hosting Villanova.  They are legit, but 4 bottom 100 wins drags on their overall numbers.  They AAC is deep enough to get Houston in this year, after they sat on the bottom of the bubble looking up last season.  BYU is the flavor of the week, though they need to drop the Gaels this weekend to hang around the bracket much longer.

First 5 Out: Syracuse, Missouri, Oregon, Providence, Alabama.  Sorry, I hate to deep digging up this horse to beat it, but Boeheim needs to learn that he cannot keep trying to force this hand.  Outside of a well-fought win here in DC against pretty suspect Georgetown team, they took on a couple neutral site games, but other than that, they paraded a bunch of 100+ ranked schools through the Carrier Dome.  It's not the worst, as 5 of those teams are likely in the Field, but the loss to the Bonnies has them out now.  They need a real road skin too.  Virginia, Duke, Florida State, or Miami... fuck, I'd take Louisville as well.  They won't and we will go for round 3 with the committee on their sham profile.  Providence has been discussed, but they need more wins.  Alabama is fun to watch, but they chase the pace... will have impressive wins sandwiched around WTF losses.  Missouri was a lock 3 weeks ago, but their December was pretty bad, losing to a struggling Illinois and escaping SFA.  Considering this had been one of the worst major conference programs in the country the past two years, being is actually quite an achievement.  Oregon will have a lot to prove in conference, but their road win at Fresno shouldn't be ignored, even with their struggles in Portland.

Next 5 Out: Ohio State, Iowa State, Boise State, Temple, Boston College.  The Buckeyes are in better shape than their other Big Ten fringe players (Northwestern, Penn State).  They are already 2-0 in conference and their losses are solid losses.  Their lack of road games is a little perplexing and it bumps them a notch.  Iowa State is going to have to fight it in a stacked Big 12, but with quality wins abound, the only way to not be in the mix is to crash out with 3 or 4 wins.  Boise is much better than this, but they are a little low on the KenPom and Sagarin numbers, which means they really have to push the envelope on Nevada.  Temple had the best computer numbers, but those have slipped.  There 3 100+ losses cancels out their shocking win(s) in Charleston.  BC is hanging that Duke win out their and will ride it as long as possible, but .500 in the ACC is what they need to make up for weak NCSOS and results.

In the mix: Northwestern, Penn State, Marquette, Kansas State, Georgia, Utah, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, UNLV, San Diego State