Preseason Bracket

So the preseason bracket is a month late.  Most of the conference picks were made between the first of November and Thanksgiving, but the bracket layout and seeding has been delayed for a few reasons.

1. My computer, iPad, thumb drives, etc, were all stolen in San Francisco this summer.  Lesson: In SF, if it isn’t tattooed or pierced to your body, it will likely be stolen.  Be warned.  Because it was a new folder, I had not set the permissions to back-up any of the data to the Cloud or my Airport.  Well, that’s on me.
2. It’s OK, because I was constantly playing catchup, everything was hand-jammed to spreadsheets.  This year, I have tried to make my data acquisition a little more efficient, which has required some up front coding…
3. I suck at coding.
4. I do most of this during work down time (last year I was on the final extension of a contract, which equates to blowing off real work) which there has been little of…
5. Too many kids.
6. This whole NCAA-FBI thing.  This type of selection bias goes well beyond KenPom, RPI, endowment dollars, etc.  Clearly there is so much wrong going on in college basketball right now to circumvent the rules, how do you punish those who have been caught in this one scheme, versus what is known to be occurring at numerous other programs? Especially when the NCAA administrative body has proven that they have know idea what a student athlete is.
7. I am lazy.

I’m not here to hold ethical or moral judgment. It amazes me Pitino got pinched before Calipari. It bothers me a coaching lifer like Larranaga is thrown into the industrial wasteland that has become NCAA recruiting.

In other words, I moved several schools into a category reserved for schools at risk, whether it be administrative turmoil, APR, or investigations.  Of these schools, only two are in my field: UCLA and Miami.  The damage done at USC, OK State, Louisville, Arizona, and Auburn will likely result in internal punishments to cover this season.  In the case of Louisville, the NCAA may even rule on that sooner than later due to the amount of specifics already out in the public.  Alabama is on the cusp of flushing their best squad in years down the drain, so here’s hoping they come clean in the next few weeks.  They are good enough to be playing the second weekend

This has moved my PAC12 outbid from Arizona to Oregon.  Also, at print time, I have had enough of Harvard and will roll with Steve Donahue’s dark horse Quaker Oats team.

The bracket:

Duke has had enough near deaths to make me believe that ACC regular season will humble them.  They have done enough to hold their 1 seed, but they may not even win the regular season title (hint- they don’t have to).  Same with Michigan State.  The Big12 is loaded and TCU gets the first #2 seed.

I really like Villanova, but I am going to stick with my gut that a senior-laden Seton Hall and frustrated by circumstance Xavier team will test them off the top 2 lines.  Wichita State is out making me look like a buffoon right now, but I still like Cincinnati to beat them to the top AAC spot.  PAC12 is really gutted without Arizona and USC.  Oregon and UCLA just aren’t mature enough to do much better than the 5 line.  

Mid Major alerts:

I like Nevada.  They have improved a lot the last few months, and the MWC is receiving nicely, thanks to hot starts from San Diego St., Boise St., and UNLV.  I have Wyoming holding a play-in spot, but that could very likely be one of those aforementioned schools.  Gonzaga reloaded quickly, but the WCC only goes as far as the Gaels can take them, and they are not strong enough to get into the preferred pod position.  The Bonnies took a week 1 hit to the resume, but still will be a factor Selection Sunday.

The One Bid leagues will likely be buried, much like UT Arlington and Middle Tennessee were last season.  However, the numbers continue to insist that these are fringe Top 25 schools, not Top 100 fodder.  The CAA was in this position last season, but without UNCW driving the train, CoC gets screwed.  Vermont, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, and South Dakota State are the schools nobody wants to draw.  It will be very difficult to keep the winners of the HBCs out of the 16 seed play-in games, as only Texas Southern is remotely to playing at D-1 standards right now.

1 SEEDS

Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, Florida

2 SEEDS

TCU, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Xavier

WILD CARDS (Teams that can blow this up)

Villanova, Arizona (Not in Field), Wichita State/Cincinnati, Gonzaga

LAST FIVE IN

Oklahoma, Northwestern, VCU, Central Florida, Wyoming

ENJOYING A SOFT BUBBLE

Maryland, SMU, Mississippi St, Texas, St. John’s, St. Bonaventure

TEMPORARILY NOT CONSIDERED (that matter)

Arizona, USC, Louisville

FIRST FIVE OUT

Alabama, KSU, Temple, San Diego St., Utah

NEXT FIVE OUT

Clemson, PSU, Washington St., UConn, NC State