It doesn't mean anything yet, but it shows that maybe there was a trade market for the shortstop all along. The Red Sox are a team who have had SS issues all season, and a three game sweep at the Yankees may have been just what the Nats needed to get a panic move.
I have no problems with Guzman as a baseball player. He is streaky as a pair of drawers after the Chili Cookoff, but as long as he is hitting over .300, he is an effective major league hitter. I just don't think he has the range to his left to play short any more and is more of a 2B-3B guy defensively.
The Nats should get value for Guzman while they can. They waited too long with Nick Johnson and got little. The savings will help going into the off season, and even if the only get a long shot in return, it is one more step to reloading the farm system, which is probably more important than the half win Guzman will provide these last two months. More than likely, he will slump and lower any potential trade value he may have left.
Make the move... unlike the Johnson and Beimel trades, the other party is the desperate one.
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Pawtucket Nationals
In 2004, when DC was selected to received the nomadic Expos, I was ecstatic. Surprised also, as I thought that Portland would offer a more loyal fan base and Las Vegas was a completely untapped market. However, MLB spotted the free ATM that is the Federal Government and greed won in a landslide. It is hard to blame MLB, as the integrity bar in baseball is set very low. DC would also be the easiest place to obtain a free stadium. A little seedy, but I wasn't an O's fan and wasn't going to pretend to be one.
Everybody ignored the fact that major league baseball failed in DC twice. The signs were there in 2004 that the city had changed. Face it, this is a an Orioles and Red Sox town... if NESN was carried on the basic cable tier, they would outdraw the Nats on MASN for viewers. It foolish to think that thirty to sixty thousand Bostonians decided to try to make a weeknight series against the worst team in the league nine hours away in DC. Most of these tickets are sold to local Red Sox fans, those filthy annoying donkeys filling up Buffalo Billiards on Friday night.
The hardcore Nationals fans have done well at repelling the surge, but the front office has gone out of their way to create as much of a home field environment for the Red Sox as possible. So that begs the question- would the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox be able to outdraw the Nats in DC? My initial reaction would be no way, but there have been way too many nights that Nats park has more resembled a Washington Freedom game. The PawSox regularly draw eight to twelve thousand... which isn't bad considering McCoy only seats about ten.
The problem is that MLB overestimated the demand for baseball in DC, just as they did in Tampa (Miami is another story). There is a solid TV market, but most people off the street (myself included) are Red Sox, Yankees, or Orioles fans. To create a large fan base here would be a daunting task, and so far neither the city nor the owners have been up to the task. There have been arguments that the fans will come once the team starts winning, but that hasn't played out in Tampa. While Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and even Baltimore have been beaten down by decades of losing, the Nats don't even seem to have gotten through the "New Car Smell" phase before the malaise set in.
The question for us DC residents is had Portland won the Expos sweepstakes and the consolation prize was and Independent or International League team. Would you have supported the team? Would affiliation have mattered? Just something to think about as the Nats are forced to build from the ground up. More than likely, though, MLB will assign the Nats a similar fate as the Senators.
Everybody ignored the fact that major league baseball failed in DC twice. The signs were there in 2004 that the city had changed. Face it, this is a an Orioles and Red Sox town... if NESN was carried on the basic cable tier, they would outdraw the Nats on MASN for viewers. It foolish to think that thirty to sixty thousand Bostonians decided to try to make a weeknight series against the worst team in the league nine hours away in DC. Most of these tickets are sold to local Red Sox fans, those filthy annoying donkeys filling up Buffalo Billiards on Friday night.
The hardcore Nationals fans have done well at repelling the surge, but the front office has gone out of their way to create as much of a home field environment for the Red Sox as possible. So that begs the question- would the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox be able to outdraw the Nats in DC? My initial reaction would be no way, but there have been way too many nights that Nats park has more resembled a Washington Freedom game. The PawSox regularly draw eight to twelve thousand... which isn't bad considering McCoy only seats about ten.
The problem is that MLB overestimated the demand for baseball in DC, just as they did in Tampa (Miami is another story). There is a solid TV market, but most people off the street (myself included) are Red Sox, Yankees, or Orioles fans. To create a large fan base here would be a daunting task, and so far neither the city nor the owners have been up to the task. There have been arguments that the fans will come once the team starts winning, but that hasn't played out in Tampa. While Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and even Baltimore have been beaten down by decades of losing, the Nats don't even seem to have gotten through the "New Car Smell" phase before the malaise set in.
The question for us DC residents is had Portland won the Expos sweepstakes and the consolation prize was and Independent or International League team. Would you have supported the team? Would affiliation have mattered? Just something to think about as the Nats are forced to build from the ground up. More than likely, though, MLB will assign the Nats a similar fate as the Senators.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Red Sox Series Preview
Tuesday: John Lannan vs. Brad Penny
Wednesday: Craig Stammen vs. John Lester
Thursday: Jordan Zimmermann vs. John Smoltz
ESPN would like you to believe that the Red Sox are an unstoppable juggernaut that cannot be contained. They have seven dominating starters and an impenetrable bullpen and their 1 – 9 hitters are better than all yours. ESPN would put the Red Sox -130 against the NL All-Stars in a seven game series. Of course, most people at ESPN have no clue what they are talking about.
In truth, the Red Sox currently face a few of the same issues the Nationals have faced this year. First, both teams play awful defense. They rank 29th and 30th in UZR/150. About the only positive move that the Red Sox have been able to make to address this is to install Nick Green as the full time shortstop, and he is a career backup who has picked up most of his major league at bats due to injury (Marcus Giles, now Jed Lowrie). Despite his speed, Jacoby Ellsbury’s metrics have been poor, and Jason Bay is their version of Josh Willingham. Mike Lowell has been awful at third and has to have management considering moving Youkilis back over, although even Youk has been banged up. The horrible defense has made starters Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Jon Lester, and Dice-K look much worse than they have actually pitched, all posting an ERA-FIP of +0.50 or better. Detwiler, Stammen, and Zimmermann post similar numbers.
The second similarity is how each team has hit an offensive slump in June. Check out their numbers this month:
Pedroia: .178/.250/.455
Youkilis: .210/.372/.775
Bay: .246/.333/.783
Varitek: .190/.320/.653
Kotsay: .259/.286/.656
Lowell: .220/.299/.637
That is some ugliness right there. The only reason the Red Sox haven’t completely folded has been their pitching and David Ortiz’ Vitamin B-12 shipment finally clearing customs. The Nats have endured similar droughts, punctuated by Zimmerman’s recent .217/.313./631 slide (and 0-15 Toronto series) and Austin Kearns incomprehensible .063/.231/.293. Adam Dunn looks like he is not seeing the ball as well, and has resorted to slapping the ball on occasion.
The third is that they both have pitchers that they trying to exorcise. Dice-K is back on the DL with a minor shoulder strain, and Scott Olsen is floundering in AAA with diagnosed shoulder tendinitis. Management is struggling to figure out what to do with each once they are off the DL. The Nats at least have a reason to play Olsen, in an effort to keep their rookie innings down. The Red Sox have a front line starter rotting in AAA, and another rotting as a mop-up man.
The Red Sox do have more talented players; they paid out their backside for this roster. The Nats avoid the Red Sox two toughest tasks, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield. The other guys are beatable. The chess match between the managers will be interesting. Manny will likely be tempted to go with the hideous Willingham/Dukes/Dunn outfield, but the team would be best served to give Harris two games in center and Dunn Wednesday off against Lester. I think Lannan gives the Red Sox a couple meatballs, but not enough to put the game out of reach. (Side note: uh, what is the deal with Brad Penny? The Red Sox have him listed at 230, way down from the 270 he was playing at with the Dodgers.) Two of three will be there for the taking again, as long as the bullpen continues to control damage.
Wednesday: Craig Stammen vs. John Lester
Thursday: Jordan Zimmermann vs. John Smoltz
ESPN would like you to believe that the Red Sox are an unstoppable juggernaut that cannot be contained. They have seven dominating starters and an impenetrable bullpen and their 1 – 9 hitters are better than all yours. ESPN would put the Red Sox -130 against the NL All-Stars in a seven game series. Of course, most people at ESPN have no clue what they are talking about.
In truth, the Red Sox currently face a few of the same issues the Nationals have faced this year. First, both teams play awful defense. They rank 29th and 30th in UZR/150. About the only positive move that the Red Sox have been able to make to address this is to install Nick Green as the full time shortstop, and he is a career backup who has picked up most of his major league at bats due to injury (Marcus Giles, now Jed Lowrie). Despite his speed, Jacoby Ellsbury’s metrics have been poor, and Jason Bay is their version of Josh Willingham. Mike Lowell has been awful at third and has to have management considering moving Youkilis back over, although even Youk has been banged up. The horrible defense has made starters Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Jon Lester, and Dice-K look much worse than they have actually pitched, all posting an ERA-FIP of +0.50 or better. Detwiler, Stammen, and Zimmermann post similar numbers.
The second similarity is how each team has hit an offensive slump in June. Check out their numbers this month:
Pedroia: .178/.250/.455
Youkilis: .210/.372/.775
Bay: .246/.333/.783
Varitek: .190/.320/.653
Kotsay: .259/.286/.656
Lowell: .220/.299/.637
That is some ugliness right there. The only reason the Red Sox haven’t completely folded has been their pitching and David Ortiz’ Vitamin B-12 shipment finally clearing customs. The Nats have endured similar droughts, punctuated by Zimmerman’s recent .217/.313./631 slide (and 0-15 Toronto series) and Austin Kearns incomprehensible .063/.231/.293. Adam Dunn looks like he is not seeing the ball as well, and has resorted to slapping the ball on occasion.
The third is that they both have pitchers that they trying to exorcise. Dice-K is back on the DL with a minor shoulder strain, and Scott Olsen is floundering in AAA with diagnosed shoulder tendinitis. Management is struggling to figure out what to do with each once they are off the DL. The Nats at least have a reason to play Olsen, in an effort to keep their rookie innings down. The Red Sox have a front line starter rotting in AAA, and another rotting as a mop-up man.
The Red Sox do have more talented players; they paid out their backside for this roster. The Nats avoid the Red Sox two toughest tasks, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield. The other guys are beatable. The chess match between the managers will be interesting. Manny will likely be tempted to go with the hideous Willingham/Dukes/Dunn outfield, but the team would be best served to give Harris two games in center and Dunn Wednesday off against Lester. I think Lannan gives the Red Sox a couple meatballs, but not enough to put the game out of reach. (Side note: uh, what is the deal with Brad Penny? The Red Sox have him listed at 230, way down from the 270 he was playing at with the Dodgers.) Two of three will be there for the taking again, as long as the bullpen continues to control damage.
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