7 and 126?

If those numbers sound familiar, you are not alone. Those are the exact terms to which Barry Zito agreed in 2007, mind you Zito was two years younger and not far removed from winning a Cy Young award. And the mockery both Zito and the Giants have taken for the deal has only been quelled by their overachieving bunch exorcising those demons and bringing home a world championship... it should be noted that they won that title without Zito on the roster.

Werth isn't a terrible player. Neither is Barry Zito. Werth was miscast as a future star before he was ready. Baseball is funny like that, as players drafted straight out high school with hype often disappear into the minor league abyss before reemerging as a completely different player. Werth showed his five-tool abilities in the Blue Jays system, but those teams were clinging to the notion that they were a couple breaks away from competing in the AL East. He was traded to the Dodgers and, for a number of reasons, never emerged as the top 100 prospect they thought they were acquiring. The offensive numbers are somewhat misleading, playing in the NL West, but after a few hundred at bats and no more options, the Dodgers let him go. The Phillies, having just dealt away Bobby Abreu and unconvinced Shane Victorino could be an everyday play, took a chance. Playing in a hitters' park, surrounded by Utley, Howard, and later Ibanez, Jayson Werth has crushed the ball.

Jayson Werth has been a 5-win player through his prime years and probably has 1-2 5 wins seasons in him, assuming his defensive dip last season was just noise. But over the next 7 seasons? It would be foolish to expect Werth to contribute more than 3 wins average per season over the next five, with increased risk of injury. A 7-year contract to a 29 year-old center fielder would be considered foolish, even to a team with the resources of the Yank/Sox. But a 31 year-old corner outfielder? Much like the contract Ryan Howard received, it isn't an albatross until the numbers drop.

I wasn't at the winter meetings, so I have no idea what the large market was for Werth's skill set. Carl Crawford is younger, facing stiffer competition, and probably should have driven the market. Overpaying for Werth now, unless it is a move to gain a competitive advantage acquiring Cliff Lee or Zack Grienke, is absolutely foolish with Crawford available to leverage. The Nats were not going to overpay for Dunn's skillset with the market flush with first basemen.

In closing, Jayson Werth is a very good player. He is not a GREAT player, though. At no time would he have been considered one of the three best players on his own team. The Nationals, however, have committed to him as such for the next seven seasons. It is a dangerous proposition and could be rationalized for a three to five year deal, but not seven... never seven. Just like Barry Zito was a very good pitcher, he was never GREAT.

* Some people may liken this more to Vernon Wells, but to me, this is the only Vernon Wells.

Hey Wang! What's With the Pictures? It's a Parking Lot!

I'll bet when you sign a pitcher like this, you get a free bowl of soup... oh, but it looks good on your rotation (rolling eyes).

Three Signings That Won't Make You Cringe

As the free agent market begins to dry up, the less desirable teams are forced to scramble to claim the best remaining players to fill the gaps on their rosters. Watching the Royals make a panic moves to acquire flawed veterans Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel, the fact of the matter is that Rizzo has made most of the right moves to improve the team 10+ wins for 2010. It is doubtful that the NL East will be as terrible as it was last season, but the improved pitching will make them a more difficult team to sweep.

Going into the offseason, the Nats did not have many "holes" (besides the abyss called the bullpen), but many "areas for improvement." The biggest hole outside the bullpen has been the farm. They were forced to call up anyone with a pulse, mostly with less than desirable results. Second base still needs to be addressed, and Rizzo has gone out of his way to put his card in every agents' hand. It has been the number of proven major leaguers and AAAA guys looking for a second chance they have shrewdly brought in via minor league contracts. Having a player blocked in AAA is never a bad problem; needing regular innings from Justin Maxwell is a bad problem.

The Nats picked up Tyler Walker for a one year deal for less than a million bucks, in an era that Brandon Lyon received 3 years and 15 million. Walker is considered more of short-relief guy, better at working against righties, but his splits improved in 2009. According to the Pitch f/x, he didn't change stuff or approach much, so it is possible he had a lucky 53 batters. However, Walker has sustained a BABIP well below average for three straight seasons, and those numbers are not dependent upon his split stats. He also strikes out more than twice as many as he walks, which is unheard of in the Nats organization). My inclination is that he figured out how to get guys out with his B-rated stuff. He is an epic upgrade over a leech like Julian Tarvarez, and a good experienced role player for a bullpen that lacked most of that phrase at the beginning of Spring Training last season.

Chris Duncan doesn't figure to be in the equation unless there is an injury... of course, that is what the farm is for. His bat shows some pop, but he moves like he should be playing with the old timers in the All-Star weekend softball game. (Random tangent: my roommate and I just happened to catch the greatest play ever made in history of that series. First inning of the 2004 game, 2 outs and a dying quail is flipped into shallow center field. The center fielder hardly moved, and it looked like a sure single. Out of the right corner of the screen, a gray moustached blur came skidding across the grass face-first, full extension, and robbed the batter. Then 57 year-old Rollie Fingers flipped the ball back to the infield and trotted off to the dugout.) Duncan is only signed to a minor league deal, so if he does rediscover his swing at Syracuse and can get on base around league average, he will be a valuable bat off the bench or backup for Willingham.

The coup went under the radar though, as the Nats also stole Chuck James for a minor league deal. Chuck James isn't an All Star. He is coming of rotator cuff and labrum surgery, but it will be 18 months when camp opens. It will probably take a few months to rebuild strength, but it is likely, given his 2:1 K:BB number when healthy, that he will be in a similar, if not better position to contribute to the organization in 2010. The trouble he brings is that he is slight and doesn't create much of a downward plane with his fastball, leaving him prone to flyballs. However, regardless of his style, he is a steady lefty that can fill in the back of the rotation better that JD Martin. He should be considered "Scott Olsen insurance. If he adds a third pitch, something that can change the hitters' horizontal plane more than his fastball/changeup combo, he will have an impact on the major league roster this season.

Matt Capps- 3.5 million

This isn't an unreasonable deal if he in fact is the closer. However, there is an equally reasonable chance that he isn't even the best ex-Pirate reliever to come to town. One year gives the Nats a low risk option to evaluate all their closer options, which should include everybody floating around. I really feel that Clippard and Storen are the two best options, followed by Capps and MacDougal.

To be fair, Capps was ridiculously unlucky (.370 BABIP) on an offensively challenged team, following two seasons of fortune (.272 BABIP). He's a standard fastball/slider closer, and his velocities have remained solid for three seasons. It's unlikely he will be as bad as his 2009 numbers would indicate, but I'm not sold loading up on former Pirates.

Jason Marquis Now? The Pros and Cons

Upon seeing the Nats bring in Jason Marquis, I wondered if the team was suffering an identity crisis. Sure, Marquis is Rizzo's wet dream starter. He keeps the ball low and in the park, works efficiently, and by all accounts is a team first guy. The numbers and timing leave much to be desired, though. Here is a simple run down of the deal.

Con: Marquis is coming off a career year during which he was selected to the NL All-Star team. His candidacy, while solid, were clearly boosted by an inflated win total. This bargaining chip gave his team a leg up in any negotiations. The Nats, being really bad, did not need any further handicaps.

Pro: He can work deep into games, taking the burden off John Lannan to play stopper every five days.

Con: He posted career highs in innings pitched and batters faced, all the while tailing off dramatically in September.

Pro: The last three years, he survived hitters' paradises Wrigley Field and Coors Field, posting an ERA+ of 100 or better. He approaches the game consistently and has adjusted to his environment.

Con: His FIP in 2009 was three-quarters of a run better than his career average. Trends are nice to see; spike raise question marks. He is likely to regress closer to his career numbers.

Pro: He has pitched for a playoff team every year in his career.

Con: He is not a strikeout pitcher, now pitching for a team that desperately needs one.

Pro: An understated talent of his, Jason Marquis is not useless with a bat in his hand. He isn't a power hitter, nor can he take a walk, but his aggressive approach puts pressure on the other pitcher and can move runners from first to third and second to home on occasion. The Nats had 39 successful sacrifices in 2009; Marquis has 32... in his career (with 9 last year).

Con: Last time he pitched as many innings in a season, he stunk the following year.

Pro: He is 6 days older than me... age is not a factor.

Con: His groundball success in Denver was greatly assisted by having Troy Tulowitzki and Clint Barmes swallowing everything behind him. There are currently no such luxuries on the Nats roster.

Pro: He throws his sinking fastball early and often, staying ahead of hitters.

Con: Two-seamers tear the hell out of fingers and forearms. He may not be injury-prone, but these register a cumulative toll.

In all, it is easy to slam the deal because the Nats were forced to overpay to acquire the services of a league average pitcher. However, league average is a lofty goal for the Nats, so this could be a savvy move buy a few wins to show improvement going forward. B- for not getting him last season.

Do the Nationals Think They Can Win in 2010?

After foregoing the Rule 5 Draft by dealing their top pick to the Yankees for Brian Bruney, a mediocre pitcher who will make Joel Hanrahan look reliable, a wondered about the realistic short term goals of the Washington Nationals. Everybody wants to win, and winning sooner is always better than winning later, but teams who try to cut corners sacrifice much more further down the road (see: Redskins, Washington).

The draft picks surrendered to acquire this batch of free agents may not amount to a bag of rosin at the major league level; that is the rub with the amateur draft. There are very few "sure things" and even the best picks take three to five years to contribute. However, the conventional way to improve the organizational talent is to draft and acquire other organizations' proven prospects via trade. This doesn't have to be "Moneyball."

Honestly, I expected the Nats to be somewhat dormant in the free agent market, maybe trading for a couple of early arbitration players to get a couple of roster spots filled cheaply. Most of the rest of the work would be done to bring in as many options as possible to grow the talent at Harrisburg and Syracuse to compete in 2011 and 2012. The existing talent on the roster is good for about a ten win improvement in 2010, then as the pitching staff shakes out, modifications through free agency could be made to boost wins in subsequent years. Rizzo, on the other hand, dumped several draft picks in favor of known major league quantities.

Doug Slaten: known quantity, familiar with front office players

Brian Bruney: known quantity with limited major league upside, but should put up better numbers than Hanrahan or MacDougal

Jerry Owens: Nyjer Morgan insurance... somebody to play quality defensive CF in AAA

Ryan Speier: Local kid whose numbers should be league average

Ivan Rodriguez: Offensive production will be easy to project (no a good omen, in this case), clearly a signal that they are worried about Flores

Scott Olsen: Very low-risk, possibly high reward deal... the outlier

Jason Marquis: A good fit if the Nats improve their middle infield defense... though this deal looks like one a team who thinks it is in contention makes to add depth (Jeff Suppan to the Brewers, Carl Pavano to the Indians, etc)... a deal with little reward other than he has more experience than all those AAAA guys

Jamie Burke: Crash Davis?

Joel Peralta: Definition of AAAA

Logan Kensing: Somebody put on their Bad Idea Jeans and handed out a contract.

The Nationals are clearly trying avoid 100 losses in 2010. They may even avoid 90 with these options. However, most of these guys have had a shot and proved that they couldn't contribute much to a contender, aside from Marquis. When the Nats are expected to make another step forward in 2011, they will still have a glut of guys who are past their prime and won't be expected to improve.

The Rays needed four solid years to develop their slew of top picks, and never quit acquiring young prospects. It took an astute GM to sort through the mess and jettison the ones not expected to fulfill their promise (Delmon Young). Mike Rizzo is putting too much faith in the level of talent in the low minors right now, and for the Nats to continue to improve, their cannot be a dud amongst them. If there are, which there always are, they will be playing the free agent scramble every December to piece together a 75-win team from the leavings.

Mike Rizzo looks to be doubling-down on the Nyjer Morgan move and gambling for similar results. The Nats do have more financial resources than many teams, and may feel that the next two years are critical for establishing a paying crowd and television audience; that cannot be done with a AAA roster. In the end, the tactics cannot be condemned, though it should be mentioned that few franchises have successfully rebuilt this way.

One can dream, right

Tim Hudson is opting out of the final year of his contract with Atlanta. HOLY CRAP!! Granted, he is more likely to sign with the Rockford Peaches over the Nats, and in the end, I really doubt he is leaving Atlanta, but I would own season tickets if Huddy was on board, and maybe finally some Nats apparel.

Come on, checkbook...

On a side note, Tim Hudson is exactly the kind of player on which the Nats could get a bargain. A 34 year-old pitcher opts out 12 million for only one reason: so he isn't a 35 year-old free agent the following winter. Most players are not looking for the big dollars as much as they are the extra 2-3 years. Most teams prefer a one-and-done investment, and the Braves clearly prefer Hudson at 1/12M over 4/$$M (likely 40), especially contenders*, who will want a clean balance sheet to reload the following year. The Nats are not looking to contend until 2011, so they can be more strategic and commit to having players under contract and in place then.

* Obviously, the New York and Boston teams can be more flexible.

While neither of these scenarios is particularly feasible, which makes more sense? 4/36M for Hudson or 4/48M for Rich Harden? Or Brad Penny? Odds are, both guys sign with 2010 contenders. The key is to correctly evaluate other teams' commodities and be prepared to pick these players up when they are non-tendered/waived/released, etc. THIS DOES NOT MEAN TRADING FOR INJURED SCOTT OLSEN.

Rizzo does his homework, but he has much ground to make up to put even a .450-caliber ball club on the field.

Free Agency: Can Washington Compete

Now that the games are more or less extended "Fall Training", management should be focusing not on wins and losses at all, but how these pieces will come together for next season. Funny, Riggleman was preaching this back in July, but once the team submarined his chances at the full-time gig (which were slim at best), he defended his stance on keeping the kids on the bench.

The Nats' farm system is pretty thin, and much of it has had at least a cameo with the big club. There are holes everywhere that will have to be addressed via trade or free agency. The club landed Adam Dunn last off season for a reasonable contract, but which upper echelon free agents are going to settle on Washington? Having the number one pick in the draft consecutive years is not a resume bullet-point.

The Nats need to study and settle on three things: which type of free agent they want to pursue, how they plan to market their club to these players for 2010 and beyond, and what incentives they can offer to get these players to sign. You would think every team has a plan like this, but looking at the rosters of some of these teams, it is clear some (Jim Bowden) approach the profession with darts and rhetoric, not statistics and analysis.

Every year, teams are lauded for getting a good deal on a good free agent only to have a player who is a poor fit for the team and environment, and eventually ends up sulking the whole season (think Orlando Cabrera and Milton Bradley). Adam Dunn could have fit this profile (defensive shortcomings) had he not been a big hit with the fans. This struggle is often lost when the baseball minds do not agree with the people trying to fill the seats, and a name is signed instead of a player.

Billy Beane constructed his profile almost ten years ago, and many teams have begun to mimic his methods. The baseball landscape in 2009 is much different than in 2001. Veterans are aging in a more traditional method, players' stats bell curve more as opposed to spiking. Mike Rizzo has to identify what type of player will best fit with the team's 2010 roster and expectations. Chasing Mark Texieria, while great for appearances, would have been a disaster in both the short and long run. The Nationals would have been best committing the money to several useful players. Instead, they missed the boat on most of the good free agents.

Even once players are identified as being a good fit for the organization, whether determined by skill set, age, value, they still have to realize that the Nationals are an organization building a winning roster, and that they are not just looking for a one-year stop-gap. While those who follow the team may understand how Rizzo has changed the philosophy here in DC, the media still portrays the Nats as a bunch of wandering buffoons more adept to being on the wrong end of historic milestones. Developing a rapport with agents, who can work some magic, will be key.

Some players will not want to risk playing for a potential dud like the Nats. There are plenty of players who will consider it, but what are the incentives? The Nats will have to bargain competitively to bring in talent. Whether it is to invest an extra year into a contract, throw in a creative signing bonus or performance clause, or target higher risk guys that may not be getting a fair shot (guys coming off injuries, stuck on the bench, etc), that player needs to want to choose the Nats over 29 other teams. You don't want Julian Tavarez back.

All that stated, what are the Nats off season needs? Position by position, here we go:
1B- Adam Dunn: an attractive trading chip, but if he wasn't allowed to be moved in July, doubtful he goes anywhere by next July
2B- Cristian Guzman?*: Yeah, speculation is that he could be a candidate to shift over. Orr isn't a long-term solution, and Desmond at shortstop make the defense immensely better. Guzman moves to his right fine, and has the arm to fire from deep in the hole. It should be a sweet deal for both sides, but ego have a tendency to blow up logical situations
SS- Ian Desmond or Cristian Guzman: Orr is proving he can be a decent backup, but is probably not going to take a spot from Gonzalez. There is a need in the middle infield.
3B- Locked up till 2013
C- Jesus Flores: Hopefully 100% next season
LF- A tricky one. The Hammer will probably cost close to 6 million at arbitration. He is 30 and probably having a career year, minus the misfortunes. It will be hard to get good value for him long term, so he is likely the best trade-bait the Nats possess. I like Willingham and am glad the Nats buried Kearns to give him a real shot, but the moons really are not going to line up for him on the Nats. Possibly in the market for a corner outfielder.
CF- Nyjer Morgan: Second easiest call on the board. Just don't Juan Pierre this one.
RF- Elijah Dukes: No trade market for him, he's cheap, and he may be ready to break out after a disjointed season.
PH- Mike Morse: Can eat up a few of the spots in the field when necessary, but Rizzo traded to get his bat. Probably will never be an All-Star, but could be next year's version of Josh Willingham, sans home runs.
Bench: Wil Nieves, Alberto Gonzalez, Willie Harris, ?, ?: With Norris waiting in the wings, Bard likely becomes a solid back-up for a contender. I don't envision Maxwell making it, a much of the rest of the AAA cupboard is barren. This where the "Moneyball" teams butter their bread, finding valuable contributors and staying away from Anderson Hernandez.

There, quick and dirty, that is what the Nats should be looking for come off season: a starting caliber middle infielder, a starting left fielder, and two valuable contributors off the bench, hopefully good enough to push for playing time. The pitching staff is a quagmire for another time. Nationals Inquisition probably hits it on the head, though. In any event, enjoy the rest of the show and root for the Nats to JUST edge out the Pirates and Royals for the #1 pick.

Looking at a Possible Free Agent Reliever

Eric Seidman notes how Chad Qualls has changed has simplified his pitch selection to become a fairly dominant closer for Arizona.

Steven at FJB has harped on Rizzo's fetish of groundballers, so you would HOPE that if Qualls is not resigned by October 1 that the Nationals have him at the top of their Christmas list. And given Arizona's need for any bat with a pulse, feel free to deal.