February 17 Poll

Moving Out: UNC Wilmington, Butler, South Carolina, Maryland

1. Gonzaga
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Oregon
5. Florida
6. Baylor
7. North Carolina
8. Louisville
9. Duke
10. Saint Mary’s
11. Arizona
12. UCLA
13. Kentucky
14. Purdue
15. Florida State
16. Southern Methodist
17. Wichita State
18. West Virginia
19. Virginia
20. Cincinnati
21. Wisconsin
22. Creighton
23. Illinois State
24. Middle Tennessee State
25. Notre Dame

Moving In: Florida, Southern Methodist, Wichita State, Middle Tennessee State

How are they out?: Maryland, Southern California, Butler, Dayton, Vermont, Iowa State

Man, I feel like Wisconsin should be doing so much more...

23 January Poll

Moving Out: Xavier, Florida, Wichita State

1. Villanova
2. Kentucky
3. Gonzaga
4. Kansas
5. Florida State
6. Oregon
7. Baylor
8. Arizona
9. North Carolina
10. UCLA
11. Creighton
12. Wisconsin
13. Purdue
14. Saint Mary's
15. Louisville
16. West Virginia
17. Virginia
18. Cincinnati
19. Notre Dame
20. Butler
21. South Carolina
22. UNC-Wilmington
23. Duke
24. Maryland
25. Illinois State

Moving in: Butler, Maryland, Illinois State

How are they out?: Southern Methodist, Xavier, Middle Tennessee State, Southern California

January 12 Poll

January 12 Poll

Moving Out: Indiana, Miami, Texas Christian

1. Villanova
2. UCLA
3. Kentucky
4. Gonzaga
5. Kansas
6. West Virginia
7. Creighton
8. North Carolina
9. Oregon
10. Florida State
11. Louisville
12. Baylor
13. Wisconsin
14. Purdue
15. Saint Mary’s
16. Arizona
17. Duke
18. Virginia
19. Xavier
20. South Carolina
21. Wichita State
22. Cincinnati
23. Florida
24. UNC-Wilmington
25. Notre Dame

Moving in: Arizona, Florida, Notre Dame

How are they out?: Butler, Southern California, Middle Tennessee State, Maryland, Southern Methodist

December 6 Poll

Moving out: Michigan State, Iowa State, Dayton, Monmouth, Arizona

1. Villanova
2. Duke
3. UCLA
4. Kentucky
5. Louisville
6. Gonzaga
7. Wisconsin
8. Indiana
9. Kansas
10. North Carolina
11. Baylor
12. Creighton
13. West Virginia
14. Virginia
15. Butler
16. Purdue
17. Saint Mary’s, CA
18. Xavier
19. South Carolina
20. Wichita State
21. Cincinnati
22. Miami, FL
23. Oregon
24. UNC Wilmington
25. Texas Christian

Moving in: Baylor, Butler, South Carolina, UNCW, TCU

How are they out: The other USC, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida, Middle Tennessee State

People take polls so god damn personally that it is a futile exercise I almost prefer not to do.  I try not to let head to head results dictate "what I actually think" and "who I perceive to be best."  Anything can happen in 40 minutes, and it is nuts to think that just because Team X beat Team Y, particularly on their home floor, that result defines those two teams.

That said, I gave UCLA the juice bump because that was one of the most complete games you will, and may have seen, like ever.  Indian gets the nudge over UNC, despite the game taking place in Bloomington, though that is a tenuous position given the injuries.  UVA drops behind WVU.  Baylor continues to take on everyone and win.

I went with UNCW over MTSU because I think their style will equate to more wins over better competition.  I expect the Seahawks to dump a few CAA game to inferior competition when the shots do not fall, while the Raiders methodically dismember Conference USA.  Come tourney time, though, I think UNCW has a better chance to run through to an autobid, while MTSU is stuck fighting ODU, UAB, Marshall, and Charlotte.

No excuses for the teams moving out of the polls.  They have all lost winnable games and at times looked disorganized enough to question their talent level, question being the operative word, not disprove.

Notre Dame and Southern Cal... well, what can I say.  I honestly have yet to see USC play yet, and the Irish swept the Legends in NY in unconvincing fashion.

How to Interpret November Results

The lock of last night was Baylor giving a point to a depleted Oregon squad.  Oregon, ranked in the Top 10, against Baylor, a promising, but frustrating team, in Waco.

Baylor rolled them like a sorority girl 66-49.  Hot takes abound!  Oregon is going to regress this season, struggle to make the tourney... Baylor has turned the corner and has erased the last two embarrassing season ending losses... Altman's tempo only works when shots are falling and the crowd is behind them.

There is so much too process, each for the players, coaches, analysts.  Coaches will not have a good feel for their line up or rotation for the first few games (unless they are returning everybody) and may not be able to reach potential.  Players coming off injury, suspension, transfer have little time in seat and are still getting their feet wet since official practices only started 3+ weeks ago.  And us... hell most of these guys are stat lines and bios until we see them on the floor.

Does my opinion change of Oregon after this loss?  No.

Does my opinion change of Duke after their loss?  No.

Michigan St after 2 losses?  No.

That is why I try not poll or rank every week, instead focusing on every month.  Sure, updated polls sell newspapers, but they really don't tell us anything other than who won or lost their last two games, which is a terrible sample size.  Let's look back on the 5th of December and see who the movers and shakers are.

Best win so far, and surprise, not an upset pick, was Villanova shaking off the hangover and winning a close one at Purdue.  They may not repeat, but will be a fun team to watch defend the title.  They keep the belt until a worthy opponent knocks them off the medal stand (which with the early Duke loss, could be in 2017).

Monmouth claims a great loss, dropping an OT game at South Carolina.  The SEC is Kentucky, South Carolina, and the bottom of the cage at the zoo.  Monmouth couldn't grab an at-large bid last season because of their conference affiliation, but went and stacked a non-conference slate that will set them up on the bubble again if they can get to 25 wins: USC, Syracuse, Memphis, Princeton, and UNC. Even 2-3 through that gauntlet and holding serve in the little MAAC should get them there... my guess is 3-2.

Hope to have some conference rankings out this week.

Preseason Poll- 2016/17

1. Villanova (Always ride with the defending champ till they prove otherwise)
2. Duke
3. Wisconsin
4. Kentucky
5. Virginia
6. Louisville
7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Indiana
10. Wichita State
11. Miami, FL
12. Purdue
13. Arizona
14. Gonzaga
15. Xavier
16. Kansas
17. UCLA
18. Michigan State
19. Creighton
20. Dayton
21. West Virginia
22. Cincinnati
23. Saint Mary’s, CA
24. Iowa State
25. Monmouth

Not much more to add for now.  Preseason polls are for the wolves anyways.

Change in Format

To go back to the start of this blog, I had to qualify my writing.  I was not a Nationals fan, but instead an A's fan trapped in DC who enjoys car accidents... an that is exactly what the Jim Bowden Nats were.  They were mildly entertaining, and I had just the menial job to allow me the time to create content and generate interesting research and analysis.

Then two things happened.  First, I was assigned to a much more challenging client and travelled extensively, and second, the Nats stopped sucking and there was much more attention paid to their trevails.

I few years have passed since I had taken the time to post, when I came across an opportunity to do analysis on college basketball.  I do not get the opportunity to watch games like I used to (12-20 games/ week) but have been looking for an excuse to start following again.  The caveat is that my school (BC) could be historically bad this year (like seriously, how do you dig deeper after 0-18?).

Plus, I have an opportunity to get to Vegas for March Madness.  Pardon the mess.

I hope to have a poll out tomorrow... BC will not be on it.