24 January Bracket Update!

January 24^th Bracket is live!

The biggest change is that I tweaked my formula to give a little bit more weight to quality wins, and penalized teams for being the conference punching bag.  Basically, your conference cannot be the self-licking ice cream cone, with certain teams riding their way to good computer rankings by going 0-10 against the top 50.

Apologies to Pittsburgh and Texas A&M.  I didn’t even have the Aggies in my matrix of Top 100 candidates.  That has been remedied, and while they didn’t make a list, they are lurking much closer to the fringe than I anticipated.  Pittsburgh was originally in my 12 seed play in game, but would have an ACC conflict with UVA in the weekend round.  They were bumped for Boise State, whose numbers are not poor, but they are hardly better than:

THE FIRST FOUR OUT

Right now, Pittsburgh and VCU are getting the raw deal.  VCU needs to keep winning, period.  There are no good losses in the A-10 right now.  As Houston fades, Memphis is probably feeling that spot is theirs to claim.  Oklahoma State and their #1 SoS needs to get back to .500 in conference to feel safe.

THE NEXT FOUR OUT

My ratings tweak mostly shuffle the deck chairs with no major impacts, other than poor Miami.  They plummet in the rating into the 60s, basically because they beat up on trash and lost to anyone meaningful they played.  Two Top 50 wins would get them back in, but there are desperate teams out there that are not going to give that up in the ACC.  Utah has decent numbers, but really are the epitome of a top-heavy PAC-12.  Ditto for Arkansas, who has the tools and opportunities to move up into the bracket.  Brigham Young is the longest of long shots, as they do not have nearly enough opportunities, and have been prone to choking those away.  One Gonzaga win changes everything.

LAST FOUR IN

Michigan, Houston, Seton Hall, Boise State.  Houston and Seton Hall were hurt a lot by the ratings tweaks, sliding down a few lines.  Neither is particularly threatening, and I could see the committee dumping them both for more attractive names.  I mean, I watch the Big East and feel Providence can get hotter than the Pirates.  Boise State may want to go claim the autobid, as their hold on this spot will only get weaker.  San Diego State in the MWC has a much stronger profile to grab that spot.  The Wolverines seem to enjoy this zone.  They can’t get hot enough to win 3-4 in a row, but they are too consistent to bottom out.

ENJOYING A SOFT BUBBLE

Michigan State, TCU, Clemson, Rhode Island

When I ran my numbers last week, it wanted Clemson as a 5 seed.  Now it has settled them into the 10-11 range, contingent they climb out of the ACC cellar.  TCU did just enough early to ride this out, but I can easily see them getting bullied into the NIT.  Rhode Island is in trouble like anyone else in to A-10 who cannot essentially win out.  8 losses there is probably doom.  Michigan State was originally on the 10 line, but lost out on the seeding shuffle to TCU (11 to 9) and UNC Wilmington (9 to 10).

THE ONE SEEDS

No matter how you slice it, Kansas and Villanova are not going anywhere until they get to 5 losses.  Everything is deep there.  The big winners are Baylor and Florida State.  FSU slides in ahead of UNC, because they have passed every test.  Baylor has been helped by West Virginia’s recent struggles, as well as the PAC-12 and SEC blowing donkeys.  None of these teams are particularly vulnerable until they lose a couple more games.  Kentucky and UNC are closest to the 1 line, though an undefeated or 1-loss Gonzaga team will be hard to ignore.  Wisconsin isn’t really close to a 1 seed, but can easily build the profile in the Big Ten.

SURPISES

Kansas State finds themselves on the 10 line, across from a much improved Virginia Tech team.  Northwestern storms the table and has the computer numbers to hold their spot, minus any more players getting relegated to janitor.  Maryland is quietly stalking Purdue.  Butler gets a huge boost from their beast non-conference slate and jumps Creighton and Xavier in the Big East pecking order.  Duke is in free-fall right now, having dropped 1 to 3 to 5 just like that, and this projection doesn’t even include last night’s collapse.

INTERESTING MATCHUPS

(5) Oregon playing the BSU/SHU winner.  Oregon should be able to run them out of the gym, but could also be vulnerable playing a team already warmed up.

(7) Xavier vs. (10) Wichita State sounds like it should be a Sweet 16 game, not a first rounder.

(4) Purdue vs. (13) Valpo in the battle for Indiana.

(6) SMU vs. (11) MSU, where it seems these seedings should be switched, right?

(4) UCLA vs. (13) Ohio… UCLA better hope this is not Akron, or one of the other 13/14 seeds that can score…. Or God forbid Princeton sneaks in again.

FUTURE TWEAKS

I plan to get a coefficient to weight last 10 games.  Not sure who this helps the most, but my thoughts are mid majors that go on a run and get upended in their conference tourney may benefit most.  BCS Bubble Teams are usually there because they can’t get over the 5-5/6-4 hump to show a run.

23 January Poll

Moving Out: Xavier, Florida, Wichita State

1. Villanova
2. Kentucky
3. Gonzaga
4. Kansas
5. Florida State
6. Oregon
7. Baylor
8. Arizona
9. North Carolina
10. UCLA
11. Creighton
12. Wisconsin
13. Purdue
14. Saint Mary's
15. Louisville
16. West Virginia
17. Virginia
18. Cincinnati
19. Notre Dame
20. Butler
21. South Carolina
22. UNC-Wilmington
23. Duke
24. Maryland
25. Illinois State

Moving in: Butler, Maryland, Illinois State

How are they out?: Southern Methodist, Xavier, Middle Tennessee State, Southern California

Updates: Big East, American, and A-10

Big East

Summary: The B-East is back.  Forget Nova, who is still my #1 team in the land (never bought Baylor stock) with UCLA, Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Kansas rounding out the Top 5.  Look at what Xavier, Creighton, and Butler have been doing to people.  These are not public schools with deep pockets, but private schools with a chip on their shoulder.  Throw in Seton Hall, and overachieving Providence and Marquette teams and they look seven strong.  DePaul may still be lost, but Saint John’s always looks a couple minutes away from putting it together.

What I got wrong: Never underestimate Butler.  Georgetown is probably going to work their way back into contention, but skeptics out there are hoping the whole thing tanks and they rebuild under a new regime.  This has either been the era of underachievement (Ohio, FGCU) or the era of deluded expectations.

Prognosis: Providence hit wall right before the hard games started, tarnishing a possible unexpected bubble run.  I’m keeping the bottom four the same, with the Hoyas narrowly edging out the Johnnies and Friars.  As good as this conference is, somebody has to start taking it on the chin, and I think it will be defensively challenged Marquette. Seton Hall is tall up front, but so reliant upon Angel Delgado, they cannot string together any continuity when he sits with fouls on the road.  I had originally planned on keeping the Top 3 intact, but Xavier has a couple holes that can be exploited, and the Jays are completely unstoppable right now.  That said, the X is built for a deeper NCAA run.  Villanova looks very similar to the 2006-2008 range Florida teams that went back to back.  I won’t commit to that now, but they are certainly in better shape than Kentucky.  UCLA and Kansas have much to bring to the table, but are riskier to even win their conference, let alone get the 1 seed, which Nova is cake walking toward.

BE	Preseason	Realtime
1	Villanova	Villanova
2	Xavier	Creighton
3	Creighton	Xavier
4	Seton Hall	Butler
5	Marquette	Seton Hall
6	Butler	Marquette
7	Georgetown	Georgetown
8	Providence	Providence
9	Saint John's	Saint John's
10	DePaul	DePaul

American Athletic

Summary: Was anyone really surprised when a former Calipari assistant was busted for cheating?  Nah…  I like to break this conference into 3 simple groups.  The HAVEs: Cincinnati, SMU, and Houston.  These teams have already gone out and put together a fair resume, though Houston has the most work to do.  They will need Rob Gray to carry the load, but don’t sleep on Devin Davis returning to add inside presence.  The Bearcats suffocating defense is what coaches have nightmares of, and few teams in the nation have bodies to match up with the Mustangs.  SMU never broke through under Larry Brown.  We will see if Tim Jankovic is a true coaching talent like many of Brown’s protégés, or just another “Coattails Guy.”  The MAYs, Memphis, Temple, UCF, UConn, and Tulsa all have that NIT feel.  I don’t think any of these teams do enough productive things to take enough games off the top 3 to push their computer rankings up.  Memphis stole a win off the Cocks minus Thornwell, which may not be taken into consideration come selection time.  They live and die by Dedric Lawson inside, as they haven’t been able to buy a bucket this year.  Temple’s back to back wins over West Virginia and Florida State in Brooklyn are even more improbable than they sound now, considering they went 8-8 against a mediocre slate of games around it.  Central Florida played a pretty crappy schedule and is relegated to winning the AAC tourney to get a sniff.

What I got wrong: Tulsa- they are not bad, but they lost too much from last year’s Cinderella team to pull it off again.  Memphis hasn’t slid as far as expected.

Prognosis: Cinci and SMU are locks, but Houston can’t slip up and let any of the NIT crowd catch them in the standings.  Losses to the NOTs, USF, ECU, and Tulane, are grounds for automatic disqualification.  Remember when Jeff Lebo was then next big up-and-comer?  I do!  He coached a couple great Tennessee Tech teams… now he is fodder.  Memphis is a play in game candidate if they keep their noses clean. 

AAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
2	Southern Methodist	Southern Methodist
3	Houston	Houston
4	Tulsa	Memphis
5	Connecticut	Tulsa
6	Temple	Temple
7	Central Florida	Central Florida
8	Memphis	Connecticut
9	Tulane	Tulane
10	East Carolina	East Carolina
11	South Florida	South Florida

Atlantic 10

Summary:  I feel like the A10 has let me down, but maybe only because the Big East has overachieved.  These are smaller schools and tighter budgets, but the passion, talent, and leadership is there.  I just don’t know why the wins aren’t happening.  If the tourney started today, Dayton would be 10/11 caliber and URI and VCU would be cannibalizing each other to get to the play-in line.  Davidson scheduled ambitiously, but couldn’t rebound from the UNC and Kansas losses.  The Bonnies will hang around, but a soft schedule dooms their 5 losses to date- make it six, as Richmond sticks the knife in them. 

What I got wrong:  Well, George Mason isn’t finishing last.  In November, I was openly lamenting the fact that they had killed a great program by moving way above their heads.  Dave Paulsen has done great work un-fucking the mess Paul Hewitt made, and at least they won’t be perennial basement dwellers.  Davidson should be better than this.  Fordham, much like DePaul, continues to squander talent and resources.  The middle of this conference is just sludge that is difficult to differentiate.

Prognosis: Saint Joe’s looked like one of the few teams that could crack the bubble, but sans Shivar Newkirk they are lucky to reach the NIT without him.  Saint Louis hosts Duquesne as their only real chance to get a conference win this year, unless a team takes the night off. I like Dan Hurley and the balance with which the Rams (URI) are playing.  It may not be enough to dethrone the Flyers or the other Rams (VCU), but it is enough to win league games over the weak sisters and get to the Dance.  Chris Mooney has Richmond off to a hot start in-league.  They blew the Maryland game and I wrote them off shortly after, yet here they are again.  Bottom line, though, the A-10 is much weaker than expected.  Dayton beat their next best competition to start the season, so they remain the favorite.

A10	Preseason	Realtime
1	Dayton	Dayton
2	Davidson	Rhode Island
3	Rhode Island	Virginia Commonwealth
4	Saint Bonaventure	Richmond
5	Virginia Commonwealth	Saint Bonaventure
6	Richmond	Davidson
7	Fordham	La Salle
8	Saint Joseph's	George Mason
9	George Washington	Massachusetts
10	Massachusetts	Saint Joseph's
11	La Salle	George Washington
12	Duquesne	Fordham
13	Saint Louis	Duquesne
14	George Mason	Saint Louis