If Not Lee, Then Who?

OK, so what would the Nationals Opening Day rotation look like if the season started January 1st?

Well, Jordan Zimmermann is health, and we will assume the same for John Lannan and Jason Marquis. I though Marquis could be a mildly intriguing trade chip at the Winter Meetings if the Nats played up his second half numbers. However, Rizzo likes his groundballers and wasn't going to mail-in his first major signing as a failure.

1)
2) Zimmermann
3) Lannan
4) Marquis
5)

OK, so some in-house candidates to fill in that five-hole are Yunesky Maya, Luis Atilano, and Craig Stammen. I doubt JD Martin figures into the equation anymore, as the front office treated him as an afterthought despite league average numbers. The Pirates took Scott Olsen off the scrap heap, so that is one less headache. The Nats really do not have another farmhand ready to step in and contribute, so unless they bring back Hernandez for another dance (which wouldn't be the worst thing), these are the applicants.

Maya, despite the investment, projects more as a reliever in the long run. The Nats will try to recoup by giving him every opportunity to succeed, but until he moves into that 7th or 8th inning role, expect him to be plagued with inconsistency injuries, but the promise that if he puts it all together, he could be a good #2 or #3 starter.

Stammen seems to have accepted his fate as the team's new Jason Bergmann: too good to pitch in the minor leagues, but not good enough to be anything but the big club's emergency punching bag. He just cannot keep the plane of his fastball down long enough to string together a month of good starts. He also seems to be nibbling more and more and finding himself behind in counts, never good for a starting pitcher.

Atilano has a similar game to Stammen, but more options and fewer gopherballs. If he wins the job out of camp, good for him. If he gets it by default, uh oh.

The #1 guy is a little bit more tricky. There are no in-house candidate with elbows fully intact. Cliff Lee was a wet dream as the Yankees and Rangers have everything to lose by not acquiring his services. The Nats do not have the minor league depth to really go get Zack Grienke or Matt Garza, but they have inflated the market to force those two teams to extend or trade those players at or below market value. The Werth deal is terrible from a cost per win standpoint, but not so bad if they can land Garza or Grienke at sixty percent what Lee gets on the open market.

If the Nats want to roll the dice on other free-agent pitchers, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden and Ben Sheets are fascinating and volatile reclamation projects. Both Harden and Sheets were awful last season, and Webb has been shutdown so long Rizzo may be the only guy who still knows he is out there. Harden was destined to get destroyed in Arlington, and there is no way the Rangers will exercise his option. Sheets should have fared better in Oakland, but never turned the corner. Carl Pavano is slightly safer, but doesn't offer #1 potential. Brad Penny is probably out of gas, but somebody will kick the tires. Everybody else out there is #3 potential as well as quality, and probably not worth the 5 million it would take to sign them.

The conclusion? Much like the first base situation, only a few people in the front office are navigating the smoke and mirrors. 2011 is likely another rebuilding season, so they may not want invest in a one year deal for #1 money, but settling for a #3 like Jeff Francis. After watch Wang rehab all season, the Nats are likely staying off the reclamation projects, so expect a trade or a minor signing. 2011 is more about finding competent corner outfielders and growing the young talent up the middle. If it gets them to .500, good work.

Lannan Has Good AA Start

The open rotation spot is Tuesday, so it is impossible for him to fill it. With the team self-destructing, does it make sense to force him back into the rotation before the All-Star Break. Now that the Nats are well out of anything except the race for #1 again, it is probably time to take stock of who NEEDS to be in the rotation.

John Lannan probably NEEDS to be in the rotation if he is healthy the Nats expect him to be in the rotation next season. He can usually pitch 7 innings on an economy of pitches. The results aren't always pretty, but he can get the job done. There is growing concern that maybe the Nats should get what they can for Lannan before he regresses to the mean. That time would be now or never.

Livan Hernandez SHOULD be in the rotation, when used properly. Right now, he is not being used properly. One night after the starter was yanked after 4 plus innings, Hernandez was pulled after 92 pitches. WHY?? If Edwin Jackson can roll off 150 pitches in a start, Livan's decaying skill set should be used for at least 120, especially when the bullpen needs it. If Riggleman wants to coddle the position, then this is where Detwiler should be once he is healthy.

Stephen Strasburg. NEEDS... once again, pitch counts are bad. They give management an out. If a pitcher gets hurt on strict limits, "Oh, he would have gotten hurt anyway." Ignorance, damnit. Here is an example. Pitch counts are like miles on a car. Some people drive aggressively and erratically, don't get regular tuneups, and wonder why the head gasket and transmission are shot after 80K. Sure, some pitchers get into a jam. But when your pitcher has cruised through 6 innings on 95 pitches, 75 strikes... those are the easy miles. Yeah, Kerry Wood Kerry Wood Kerry Wood. Look at the game logs, watch the film... there was much more stress on Wood's arm.

Scott Olsen, once healthy, probably SHOULD be elsewhere. He must be a better clubhouse guy than his reputation, or Rizzo would have eaten that arbitration money. The guy can pitch, but unlike John Lannan, has never shown he can do it consistently for any period of time. Right now, Luis Atilano is holding down that spot.

The Nationals will have paid Jason Marquis nearly five million dollars to rehab this season... that's a lot of Flippin Pizza. Is Marquis tradebait? He SHOULD be. Unless he will be contributing to the education of these young pitchers... man, if JD Martin were only a little better. But salary aside, is Jason Marquis even better than JD Martin? With this defense, all bets are off.

Craig Stammen NEEDS to be given a shot to prove he isn't a AAAA pitcher. The bad starts are frequent enough to give pause, but whether or not he is taking his old spot back or Miguel Batista's, he needs to be learning a role with the big club or playing his way off the 40-man.

I think we NEED Wang... no questions asked. But since he seems indefinitely broken, let's scrap him.

Matt Chico is a useful minor league relief plan, and Jordan Zimmermann will be sorely needed come 2011. But you get the idea. 2010 is in the past. Figure out who will contribute in 2011 and focus in them. 76 wins is better than 72, but 76 wins again next season is not as good as 84.

So what will the rotation look like on August 1st? Your guess is as good as mine, but with a couple of expendable parts, maybe they can improve their holes at right field, second base, and, well, all of AAA. Dunn and Willingham are parts also, but let's face the facts that the offense goes nowhere without them.