Bubble Profiles- Notre Dame

So the ACC Tournament has been on ESPN, so you probably have not heard the talking heads shut up about Notre Dame making the tournament.  This is certainly an argument one can make.  Notre Dame, despite a seven game losing streak, was still a good team even without Colson, Harvey, and Farrell.  They just didn’t have the ability to finish games anymore.  The Irish have remained in the Top 40 in efficiency in KenPom, Top 40 Rated by Sagarin, and they started 3-0 in the ACC. I had them as my preseason favorite to win the ACC.  But injuries happen, but honestly, it is more than just injuries. Some of it is just luck, which the Irish have had little to none of this season, which is something that will get covered here.

The Irish Profile:

15 games without Colson (6-9)

5 games without Farrell (1-4)

1 game without Pflueger (0-1)

15 games (and counting, so really shouldn’t roll into their case, or then we have to put Maryland in the field) without Harvey (7-8)

The Irish have not played well since the injury bug hit.  But what about before?

Win @DePaul (Q3, not useful but a road win to bank)

Win vs LSU (Neutral, Q2, LSU was much better than expected)

Win vs Wichita St (Neutral, unbelievable steal of a Q1 here, as ND almost never led, and had 3% chance of winning with 21 seconds left)

Bottom Line: they won the Maui, which Michigan, Marquette, and Wichita State cannot claim (though with Cal and VCU down, this was a shit field… the fact that Chaminade did not finish last is also evidence of that).

Then:

Loss at Michigan St (Q1, OK)

Loss vs Ball St (WHAAAA, OK I get it, buzzer beater, but still Q3)

Loss vs Indiana (also, not good, Q3)

They sneaked past Dartmouth too.

Uh, that looks like an NIT team.  So now the luck factor.  Here is how Pomeroy defines his “Luck Rating”:

Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

I like to look at it as the team with the ball last is most likely to win, just like football.  If your offense averages more than a point per possession, you have to be feeling pretty good in a tie game.  The Irish struck the pot of gold against the Shockers, but had been snake eyes since.  Buzzer beater to Ball State, OT to Indiana (98.5% chance of winning), 1 pt loss to UNC, OT loss to Louisville.  I eyeballed the chart a month ago and saw them hanging around -.120 in the luck category, indicating that they had probably coughed up 3 wins along the way (standard deviation is actually around .051).  They finished the season at .055, which is a standard deviation out side the norm, but really only cause to believe they LOST one game by a bad break.

The 41 team Bubble (that reaches down and grabs “not gonna happens” like Davidson and Maryland, as well as some auto qualifiers) 3rd in basic efficiency, and 4th in efficiency strength.  This reflects a very good team.  But reaching back to the Maryland example, they are 15th and 12th here, and not even in the discussion.  Their Quadrant Win value is 36th, which means their results profile like a mid-major.  Their case is similar to Penn State’s actually, with the injury wrinkle.  

I have them a few spots out right now, with no way to make up ground, and Nevada potentially stealing a spot, as well as potentially an A-10 team. Duke probably would have been enough, but as it stands, Ball State at home with the whole team intact killed them.