Bubble Watch- Arizona State

Let’s take a look at Arizona State’s “Body of Work”.  The media blew their wad early, projecting the Sun Devils to be a 1 seed, despite very little evidence that their performance was sustainable.  They opened with one true road game (Kansas), three neutral site games (Kansas State, Xavier, Saint John’s, and eight home games, highlighted by perennial MWC contender San Diego State, Big West frontrunner UC Irvine, improving WCC squads San Francisco and Pacific, and and upper half SEC team from last season in Vanderbilt. Idaho State, Northern Arizona, and Longwood were empty calories.

Overall, this was a pretty damn good schedule.  To go 12-0 against it is more than impressive, as at the time, KSU was also considered an upset.  But al the metrics still pointed to the fact that ASU had performed well, but still ranked in the low 20’s.  The likeliness of them shooting 45% from 3 for the season was unlikely, and their defense wasn’t really preventing points.

The Pac-12 League schedule is a different story.  With unbalanced schedules, everyone can claim foul that they got a raw deal.  So what about their schedule stands out?

Home-and-Home against Arizona (Loss/Loss)- This is a missed opportunity as the Wildcats were the only true Q1 win they could have gotten at home.

Road games at altitude (Loss/Win)- The second toughest component of the Pac-12 schedule, outside of Tucson, is the double to Utah and Colorado.  The elevation will either get you up front, or the one day recovery time will not be enough for the second game.  ASU got a two day break on their trip and recovered to steal one from Utah.  This was arguably the last “great” thing they did this season.

Road games at Oregon/OSU (Loss/Loss)- Hard places to win, but both these teams kind of stink this year. OSU is back to a solid brand with Tres running the show, but ASU needed one of these to prove the still had “it”.

Road games at USC/UCLA (-/-)- ASU managed to avoid the other two best teams in the conference in their gym.

Home games vs USC/UCLA (Win/Win)- Literally the ONLY reason this is a discussion.

Road games at UW/WSU (Loss/Win)- Not the worst outcome, but they struggled to put away a terrible WAZZU.

What should have been absolutely FREE: Home-and-Home vs Stanford/Cal, Home against Utah/Colorado/Oregon/OSU, neutral site against Colorado.  A great team goes 9-0 here. A good team goes 8-1, and middling fringe bubble team maybe goes 7-2 or so.  The Sun Devils went 4-5 against dreck, with only 4 of those games on the road.

The Sun Devils do not have the injury crutch to fall back on to explain their lackluster performance.  They finished 1-5 with the win against Cal at home, which probably hurts their RPI more than helps it.

Bottom line, this is no longer a team capable of winning an NCAA tournament game.