One Bid League Predictions

Once again, no slights intended as to who's who here.  I just know that despite gaudy records, these regular season champions have no shot of catching the eye of the committee for an at-large:

Not much to say about the MAC, other than there doesn't seem to be any continuity or esteem here anymore. A hot season or two in the MAC used to be a launching pad to a nice BCS gig.  Instead, Keith Dambrot gets exiled to Duquesne for his accomplishments.  Duquense would be at the bottom of the MAC, and it's not for a lack of trying from Everhart or Ferry.  That said, the MAC still gets coaches, they still get players, but they just don't build the resumes they used to and have fallen behind the likes of the MAAC, Summit, and Southern.  I would not see any of these top 4 hanging with the Ivy top 4 over the long haul.

The WAC is up for grabs.  UVU doesn't quite have the horses to maintain their pace for a full 40 and will struggle against the top 3.  Bakersfield has been on a nice run, but with GCU eligible for postseason, it makes their path more difficult.  The Aztecs looked ready to run the regular season table until the road went through the other top schools.  This should be an entertaining race, but I expect Dan Majerle to get GCU to the promised land in their first season of eligibility.

The Ohio Valley has been a lot of Belmont, but without Bradds, that should change.  Jacksonville St. finished on the upswing and will continue that way.  Too much turmoil elsewhere in the conference to feel anyone else is a sexy pick.

The Summit is simple: the Dakota schools are good (the monopoly will be more apparent with UND coming over next year), ORU and Western Illinois are not.  Fort Wayne had their window close, and Denver is recovering from Joe Scott. 

This is the worst Big Sky I can remember.  NAU, ISU, SUU are among the worst teams in the country again.  There was a time when the Sky would park one team down there only to have them bounce back.  I like the skill players at Idaho (Sanders) and Montana St (Hall) to drive those teams to the top of the standings.

Duggar Baucom has his system and players in place, but I think the opposition is on to his pace and The Citadel can only go as far as their defense takes them.  UNC Greensboro has a fun team, but I don't think they have the overall consistency to take the regular season crown from Furman.

Vermont probably won't be on the fringes of the at-large discussion, but they should roll through the AE again.  Albany provides a nice foil, but UNH is several steps below after that.

Bucknell has a NCAA weekend-caliber team.  I don't see anyone in the Patriot gaining ground, though the work that Ed DeChellis has done, and Navy should improve their league win total for the 6th straight year.

Rapid Update, 6 MARCH

Fort Wayne out, Mike Daum and SDST in.  Check him out.  The Jacks will be an underdog, but if you check out Daum's numbers, he is one of the most dominating players in the NCAA.

Did some lower seed maintenance to get teams closer to home, flopping Siena and Northern Kentucky, leading to an interesting NKY/UK game.  Also flopped Texas Southern and Jacksonville State... TSU has the RPI to justify getting on the 15 line.  NC Central is likely to slide to the 16 line based on the strength of the MEAC vs the OVC and Southland fields.  Quality of win isn't there.

Updates: Summit and Southland

-->

Not the coach and the TV Show...

Summit League

Summary: That night in Fort Wayne will be retold for at least the next decade.  The Mastadons missed a couple opportunities to knock off Top 100 teams early, but the Hoosiers dropped the trap game.  The Summit League is actually a little stronger (or the other perennially strong mid-majors are weaker because of defections) than years past.  Denver started poorly, but has strung together a couple win to think they could join the upper crust.  Omaha has not.  North Dakota State and IUPUI did not make a mark in any of their opportunities.

What I got wrong: Omaha probably isn’t there yet and will likely end up middle of the pack.  Western Illinois was total trash, then went and stole one at Fort Wayne.  They will be tough to pinpoint the rest of the way.  South Dakota looks feisty.

Prognosis: Oral Roberts played a doozy of a non-conference slate and could have stole a few of those games.  This isn’t as deep as their champion caliber teams, but they can play with any of these teams.  There will be a lot of 7-9 teams to sort out with Fort Wayne and North Dakota State on top.  The other guys can wreak havoc but will cannibalize each other.  The fact that half the conference plays at high tempo, half play slow, and Oral Roberts is the amoeba, should lay out some interesting matchups and gambling opportunities, if your book carries Summit action.

SUM Preseason Realtime 1 Fort Wayne Fort Wayne 2 Omaha North Dakota State 3 North Dakota State IUPUI 4 IUPUI South Dakota State 5 South Dakota State Oral Roberts 6 Oral Roberts Omaha 7 Western Illinois Denver 8 Denver South Dakota 9 South Dakota Western Illinois

Southland

Summary: This conference does not have that bracket threat this year.  There is much more parity without a dominant Lumberjack squad to anchor it.  They may rise to the top, but Corpus and Sam have more talent and should rival.  Houston Baptist has looked solid.  The trouble with the Southland, as well as other small conference schools, is the sheer number on non-D1 games that skew the schedule trends.  These teams all got smoked in their buy games (except Nicholls, Lamar, and New Orleans inexplicably picked up road wins), played hit or miss against their peers.

What I got wrong: Nothing of significance.  The Top 5 are intact.  It’s crazy how bad some of the defenses are… only Nicholls can point to tempo, and they may not be able to reap much of the benefits.  New Orleans may play up out of the cellar.

Prognosis: Corpus remains the pick, but likely slip into the play in game.  McNeese and Abilene have shown the least thus far and get bumped to the bottom.

SL Preseason Realtime 1 Texas A&M Corpus Christi Texas A&M Corpus Christi 2 Sam Houston State Sam Houston State 3 Stephen F Austin Stephen F Austin 4 Houston Baptist Houston Baptist 5 Southeastern Louisiana Southeastern Louisiana 6 Northwestern State Northwestern State 7 Nicholls State Nicholls State 8 Abilene Christian New Orleans 9 McNeese State Incarnate Word 10 Incarnate Word Lamar 11 Central Arkansas Central Arkansas 12 New Orleans Abilene Christian 13 Lamar McNeese State

2017 Predictions: Small Conferences

The way I am building my bracket is maintain a tracker of each conference, top to bottom.  "Wow, that sounds like a lot of work."  Well so is playing basketball!

I strongly feel that much of my "expert" analysis come from understanding what is happening on the court, sometimes moreso than the players, coaches, and broadcast teams... actually, especially the broadcast teams.  With these teams, it is that much more difficult because despite dozens more coverage options, they are rarely on TV.  It's not like I can just roll on over to Bender Arena and catch a game any time, as my wife and kids would change the locks.

I have captured the screen shot so I can look back and compare results, as well as track standings, hot teams, and use this to populate the bracket.



These are clearly all one bid leagues that will typically have a great deal of entropy transitioning from non-conference to conference schedules, so it will be interesting to see who lives up to their billing.

What I am pretty sure of:
Long Beach State looks to be the class of the Big West, with recent losses at Irvine and Hawaii.  I can't imagine them losing more than 3 conference games.

Bryant will rebound in a big way.  The Northeast isn't very strong, which allowed a suspect Fairleigh Dickinson team to sneak through last year.

Stephen F. Austin will lose games in conference this year.  That hasn't always been a given, dropping a 53-1 spot the last 3 years... 12-6 looks about right, but could fall further if the new staff and team don't click right away.

Howard is a pick and roll away from being a dominant force in the MEAC, but right now rely too much on their guards' ability to get to the rim.  That ability is a great equalizer, but can be easy to stop when the calls are not going your way.

Not picking on any doormats either, but there will be some rough transition seasons out there.