Testing the Transfer Rule

So Saturday night, Nate McLouth became the first Nats victim of the transfer rule. I could not find video of the play, but to cue the scene, Braves have runners on first and second with one out when Andrelton Simmons hits a loopy fly ball to right. McLouth senses the runner on second may tag so he positions himself to throw and catches the ball. As he swings his glove back to his cocked throwing hand, the ball slips out and falls to the ground. The runners move up and everyone is ruled safe. The Nats, having already used their challenge, had no recourse, and with Angel Hernandez involved, no real hope.

As Dave Cameron at Fangraphs wrote, Nate is not the first foiled by the new rule intended to improve the judgment mechanics on double play attempts. He certainly will not be the last, nor will the Nats be the team most grotesquely screwed over by the rule change. Watching the McLouth play a half dozen times, it is understandable how MLB could feel the transfer rule applies fairly to both infield and outfield scenarios. However, let me repaint the picture:

Braves have runners on first and second with one out when Andrelton Simmons hits a loopy fly ball to left. Harper charges and secures the ball in his glove. He takes a step or two towards the infield and sees an opportunity to end the inning. As he begins the motion to transfer the ball to his throwing hands- "OOPS! I dropped it!" Harper quickly regathers and fires a seed into Rendon at third to nail the lead runner. Evan Gattis, struggling from a rough hangover from the evening before, can't figure out why Doug Descenzo is flailing his arms on third base, Rendon flips the ball to second and the rally is wiped out.

The samples collected by Fangraphs show the a slew of the bizarre effects the rule can have, and the umpires are not too keen on change and replay, so we certainly have not seen the end of this.

This is What You Signed on for...

So the 14 errors are 5 more than any one else in baseball. This was a given going into spring training: Ian Desmond was going to make A LOT of errors, and both the coaches and most of the media agreed that it was worth overlooking for the long-term benefits of the team. That was March 2nd.

Roll around to June 2nd, and the Nats clinging to respectability. Ian Desmond MIGHT have contributed to the team losing with a hat trick of misfortune in the field, though scoring all of one run may have played an equally important role. Desmond himself had the only extra base hit after the first inning. Before continuing the E-6 jokes, here are couple of things to put into perspective. Thus far this season, Desmond has been worth about 1 win above replacement (0.9), while the man he replaced, Cristian Guzman, has put up 0.6 with a similar number of plate appearances. Based on the UZR, Desmond has made a play on over 84% of the the balls hit into his zone in 2010, as opposed to 78.5% for Guzman in 2009 (or 77% this season). Finally, remember Ryan Zimmerman was among the league leaders in errors at third base last season, but because he gets to so many more balls than other players, it is written off as an acceptable work hazard.

As rookie, Ian Desmond's production puts him in the middle of the pack amongst major league shortstops. He will improve on a daily basis and the errors should be ignored; this team wasn't expected to be in a wild card race and shouldn't start changing plans because they are flirting with .500 in June. Keep Desmond on the diamond, and Casey at the Bat.