Deep to Center

And the Padres have been In-Zimm-inated.

Got lay some blame at the feet of Riggleman for that disastrous eighth inning. He should not have been pushing the pitches on a 95 degree night, especially against the heart of the order. Livan can work the Houdini act better than anyone, but even the sweaty Cuban is vulnerable to the elements.

This is What You Signed on for...

So the 14 errors are 5 more than any one else in baseball. This was a given going into spring training: Ian Desmond was going to make A LOT of errors, and both the coaches and most of the media agreed that it was worth overlooking for the long-term benefits of the team. That was March 2nd.

Roll around to June 2nd, and the Nats clinging to respectability. Ian Desmond MIGHT have contributed to the team losing with a hat trick of misfortune in the field, though scoring all of one run may have played an equally important role. Desmond himself had the only extra base hit after the first inning. Before continuing the E-6 jokes, here are couple of things to put into perspective. Thus far this season, Desmond has been worth about 1 win above replacement (0.9), while the man he replaced, Cristian Guzman, has put up 0.6 with a similar number of plate appearances. Based on the UZR, Desmond has made a play on over 84% of the the balls hit into his zone in 2010, as opposed to 78.5% for Guzman in 2009 (or 77% this season). Finally, remember Ryan Zimmerman was among the league leaders in errors at third base last season, but because he gets to so many more balls than other players, it is written off as an acceptable work hazard.

As rookie, Ian Desmond's production puts him in the middle of the pack amongst major league shortstops. He will improve on a daily basis and the errors should be ignored; this team wasn't expected to be in a wild card race and shouldn't start changing plans because they are flirting with .500 in June. Keep Desmond on the diamond, and Casey at the Bat.

Dunn-Zimm Switcheroo

If you hadn't noticed yet, Riggleman has taken the liberty of flopping Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn in the lineup based on righty-lefty matchup. What does this accomplish?

1) Out of the 3rd spot, the like-handed batter is more likely to see pitches over the plate to keep from walking the easier out with the hitter-favored matchup on deck.

2) Balls up over the plate greatly reduce the potential for ground balls and inning-killing double plays.

3) Both hitters' on-base percentage increases.

Ironically, the player who benefits the most from this are not Dunn or Zimmerman. It is Josh Willingham. He has more runners on base when he comes up, during which the pitcher is less effective from the stretch. Willingham is equally effective against both righties and lefties, and therefore gives the opposing pitcher little room for error facing the 3-4-5 stretch of the lineup.

I will give credit to Riggleman for finding a way to maximize production from a very thin lineup. With Nyjer Morgan struggling, Pudge injured, and the middle infielders still trying to find their individual ways (none are terrible, they all possess some shortcomings, though), that 3-4-5 really has to carry the load.

Inside the Park Homeruns and More

The Nats were drowning in quicksand. Quicksand, as you may remember from the Reeves epic "The Replacements" is when a team continues to self-destruct at the slightest hint of adversity. The team was, and still is, teetering on the bring of becoming quickly irrelevant and forgotten. Players had come into this season expecting to win, and were granted with a brief taste of success. Of course, the Nationals are not a deep talented team equipped to remain in the Wild Card hunt all year. However, as a professional athlete in any sport, the paramount goal is to win the competition, leave it all on the field.

The 2008 and 2009 Washington Nationals knew out of the gate that they sucked... the players themselves couldn't pinpoint why they sucked, and nobody wanted to buy into Manny Acta's philosophies, so nobody improved. This season, the character issues improved, and despite a slow start, the Nats won a few games and found themselves promoted from laughingstock to darkhorse. With the change in expectations will also come a sense of urgency.

There are a few ways to look at Nyjer Morgan's recent adventures. First, he is not hitting well, and therefore not on base as often. Not being on base as often has pressed him into stealing a high percentage of the time, thereby tipping his hand on opportunities. Nyjer Morgan has not been contributing much from an offensive standpoint. Morgan has, until recently, been a reliable, rangy outfielder. However, with both pitching and offense struggling for a team losing a grip on its position in the standings, Tony Plush tightened up and tried to make plays that weren't quite there. And while spiking the glove in frustration is unprofessional, it exemplifies that he knew how important making that catch was. Nobody is "showing up" their teammates here, and Nyjer Morgan is more embarrassed than he would have been had the ball careened off his head for a home run. Had he turned and picked up the ball and tossed it in, it is likely that neither run would have scored on the play. Benching isn't the answer here...

But they need to stay focused. Ryan Zimmerman had great all around game, except for a heinous baserunning blunder that created a double play and allowed the O's to walk Willingham with Guzman on second. I get frustrated when our co-ed rec softball team makes these mental mistakes. The worst thing you can do on offense is make an out. Outs are precious commodities, and at that point in the 8th inning, Zim needs to know that they only have a few left. With the lead, he needs to run a little more defensively, and hopefully the next guy plates him. Yes, Zimmerman has probably been stranded at 3rd base a high percentage of the time than anyone in the league (seriously, I think I may find a way to look this up), but trying to score from first on a line drive from center only works if you don't sprint past Guzman on second.

Fortunately, none of this mularkey amounted to much, as Walker, Burnett, Clippard, and Capps were lights out in the rain, retiring eleven of the twelve batters faced. Clippard and Burnett have been relegated to "second-banana" status with the arrival of Drew Storen, but proved today that it does take 25 working parts to win ballgames consistently.

The Nationals escaped the quicksand this time, and now everyone holds their breath for the arrival of the US Air shuttle from Syracuse, the cargo of which is the future of the franchise.


* Keanu Reeves, American Visionary, Time Traveler, Failed and Redeemed Quarterback, Space Contortionist, and Eff-Bee-Eye Agent

Ryan Zimmerman Wins the Gold Glove

Congratulations.

As Nationals observers, we have witnessed Ryan filling the highlight reel for some time. It is about time the rest of the league noticed. Gold Gloves are a reputation award, as most writers and fans, as well as some baseball managers, don't believe there are methods of measuring defense. Well, Zimmerman finally bridged the gap this year and found his way to the top of the heap, most likely for the first of many.

I hope to be back up and writing more now that the post-season is over. There is nothing more irritating than watching the baseball playoffs without a team to root for... the only thing that kept me mildly interested was the chance Cliff Lee would throw a perfect game in there. Now that it is all done, hopefully the rebuilding process can continue. The payroll is starting to shape up and Rizzo should have the authority to bring in a player or two.

The next four weeks should be exciting as the Nats acquisition strategy unfolds heading into the winter meetings...

What We Have Here is Called a "Winning Streak"

Perfect timing too, as the Strasburg contract drive should be wrapping up soon, yet no word is coming from either side. People would be getting a little anxious if they hadn't been distracted by all that success on the field.

So how have the Nats been able to pull of this run? Their bats have been quite lively, but they were still getting shelled while scoring six runs per game back in May. The key has been timing. The Clippard bases loaded Houdini act is a great example, but check out a couple of examples from last night.

Third inning, bases loaded, two out, and Cody Ross rips a hot shot at 3rd base. Lannan had made great pitch, so Ros hit the ball with some interesting topspin, and the ball comes up on Zimmerman and gets away. Unless the ball is fielded cleanly, this is probably a run against any other corner infielder in the league. Zimmerman recovers, bare hands the ball off the infield grass and flicks it upside down to Dunn to beat Ross by a half step at first. Insane play that saved one run for sure, but the way the Nats have played this year, those always compounded into big innings for the opponent.

Fifth inning, runners on the corners, nobody out, second best hitter in the National League up. This also has the makings of a big inning. Lannan does what he does best, throwing a tempting, well-located first pitch that Ramirez rolls into a 6-4-3, scoring the run, but clearing the bases.

Sixth inning, runners on the corners, one out. Emilio Bonafacio is very difficult to double up, and is clearly looking to slap the ball the other way. One run is imminent, except Lannan decides that it is time to roll out two of his six strikeouts to terminate the rally.

This doesn't include the sterling defense turned in night after night by Nyjer Morgan in center, nor does it include MacDougal getting three full count out to collect the save. The have not improved much; they are just doing a better job of playing to their Pythagorean run differential, which is not worst in the league.

The Marlins had owned the Nats for two seasons, right up until the 8th inning Tuesday. I have a hard time believing everything has suddenly changed, but as long as the players do, run with it.

Guzman Needs to Bat 7th... or 8th

Besides another team? Alas, that is a discussion for another time. Still, cannot believe the Nats were not able to parlay his hot start to a team in need of a SS (and there are several).

Since the acquisition of Nyjer Morgan, the Nats have filled the role of "prototypical lead-off hitter". Morgan takes pitches, bunts, gets on base 35% of the time or better, and can steal bases. So now that Guzman is out of the lead-off spot, where should Riggleman, or which ever lucky 5th grader he selects to pick his lineup, bat Guzman and his .300 average and .301 OBP?

The #2 spot is where he was the other night, and it was a disaster. He chases bad pitches, and while he isn't as prone to the GIDP as Zimmerman, he isn't moving the runner up. Besides, Nick Johnson really understands his role in that position, sacrificing power for control. And obviously the 3 and 4 spots are off limits, even if they are incorrectly administered. That's right, I'll get to that later.

Guzman batted fifth in the first game of this series, proving that Riggleman knows nothing about baseball strategy. Dunn was ahead of him in the lineup, and if Dunn is on first, which happens often with his walk rate, Guzman is NEVER scoring him from first base. Flat out foolish decision. And because Guzman is allergic to the #6 spot in the lineup, that leaves just three spots. OK, the pitcher will stay #9.

So #7 and #8 are open, and are usually reserved for the catcher and a spot starter. Guzman has been hitting the ball this season, but his ISO is still below .100. More often then not he is on first base. Same with Josh Bard. The difference is that Bard, even when healthy, is treacherously slow on the bases. Therefore, it probably best to bat Guzman ahead of him. Bard can paint the lines with double, and Guzman is quick enough to score from first. When Slappy gets the start, he isn't bringing power to the plate, but knows how to get to first and is quick for a catcher. Guzman should bat behind Nieves in the event he starts.

So what does that leave us with?

1. Morgan
2. Johnson
3. Willingham
4. Dunn
5. Zimmerman
6. Second Base (Gonzalez)
7. Guzman/Nieves
8. Bard/Guzman

Batting 8th does not mean that you are a poor hitter; just see what Joe Torre has been doing in LA. However, management seems to believe that Guzman has to bat high to protect his ego. This is pure BS. The objective is still to win games, and give his salary, he should be willing to bat near the bottom if it help produce runs.

The Nats run differential does not support a record as bad as what the Nats have posted. Yes, some of it can be attributed to the leaky bullpen, more to the defense. But those fundamentals do not support the fact that the Nationals hit the ball well, but often fail to score. Zimmerman is too much of a double play machine to bat third. His ground ball ratio also does not help Morgan score from third with less than two outs. Willingham is a good flyball hitter who can get on base. Zimmerman's propensity for ground balls up the middle should be moved down behind Dunn, where one of the following things are more likely:

a) the bases are empty because he is leading off an inning,
b) the bases are empty because Dunn just cleared them,
c) there are two outs so the infield is not at double play depth
d) if Dunn is on first and there are less than two outs, the Nats may have already scored (doesn't diminish the fact that a GIDP sucks, but hey, runs are runs)

Batting third does not allow for a-c, increasing the likelihood that the opponent will play for the double play against Zimmerman. This has probably cost the Nats a half dozen run alone this year. In any event, I will be stashing a printout of this blog in the home dugout every time I hit Nats Park this year.

Less Depressing News

Zimmerman snapped out of his slump, Guzman is batting .467 over the last week, and Austin Kearns got a hit.

All Star Picks... NL 3B and SS

I combined these two because there isn't much to debate.

Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman. David Wright has put up a decent batting average, and stole a crap ton of bases one game, but he is also striking out like it is his job, and his power way, way down. Zim, on the other hand, seems to have ironed out a few of the kinks in his swing (which actually caused my fiance and I to dub the Papa John's Zimmerman special, "What, are they going to deliver me a ground into a double play?). His line drive and fly ball rates are up, which has lead to an increase in easy singles and doubles, and along the way a 30-game hit streak. He is also fielding his position better than anyone in the league.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez is the Ryan Zimmerman of the shortstop position. Right now not only is he hitting the ball harder and further than anyone else playing the position, but he is also a proficient runner and superior fielder. With JJ Hardy struggling at the plate a little, nobody else enters the discussion.

Cristian Guzman? The .340 batting average (and steadily dropping) is decoration. He used to thrive on his speed, and his power numbers were driven by his ability to stretch singles to doubles, and doubles to triples. He has foregone the walk, apparently having donated his balls to science. And now, his attitude toward fielding can be illustrated by plummeting range and UZR numbers. Age and injuries may be a factor, but watching him nonchalantly jog around the infield leads me to believe otherwise.

Congratulations to Ryan Zimmerman

It is a special type of athlete who an maintain his discipline during a tumultuous first month, refining and improving his approach each game. A 30-game hit streak, which ended during a game in which he ended up on base twice via the BB and IBB, is nothing at which to sneeze. He also demonstrated consistent power, ripping 20 extra-base thus far this season, which as of this posting leads the National League. He looks to be joining David Wright and Evan Longoria as the new class of elite third basemen, much like Jeter, Nomar, A-Rod, and Tejada sprung upon the American League at the end of the '90s.

Tomorrow is a travel day, and then we will be on to the 30-win streak for Martis. If he does that, the Nats stand a chance at .500.

I'll also be putting together some information on pitching changes later this week, in a effort to breakdown how Manny Acta is approaching his bullpen, and why his moves have been consistently incorrect.

The Prologue...

First point of emphasis with this blog is that I should divulge that I am not a Washington Nationals fan. I am, in fact, a die hard Oakland Athletics fan, as well as an accomplished Yankee-hater. I have also invaded, raped, and pillaged the countryside of Red Sox Nation.

My reason for blogging the Nationals, amongst other outlets, is several-fold. First and foremost, baseball is my vice. I love college basketball and football (both varieties- let’s not get into that) as well, but baseball can be followed in so many different ways. Piles upon piles of Baseball Weekly would find their way stuffed into my room; when I moved away for school, they were the first to make their way to the recycling, followed shortly thereafter by Sport Illustrated 1987 through 1996. USA Today was readily available in college, and box scores would often be trimmed and pasted all over the place for no reason whatsoever. Fortunately, the Internet was invented, allowing me to wash the print from my hands and occasionally talk to a girl. Usually, it would be brief.

Second, it is almost impossible for me to effectively offer thoughtful and original analysis on the A’s, as all of my information comes from Susan Slusser, box scores at 7 am, and the occasional highlight off ESPN. The Nationals are here, their games are televised, and they even have uniforms and everything… it’s really neat. And apparently there are plenty of good seats available.

Next, my fiancé no longer likes being at the end of all my jokes, and the Nats are fairly easy targets… uh, let’s just move on.

Finally, it would be nice to be a part of their success. Right now, the Nats bandwagon looks like it just made a detour through Mexico. Sure, people “support” the team, but since the new stadium opened, so many of the casual fans were priced out the door, and the honeymoon looks over. I was excited when Washington was able to outbid premium franchise destinations such as San Juan, Monterrey, Las Vegas, and Branson Missouri, and even organized the legendary “F- the French, We Are Taking the Expos Back” bar crawl that may or may not have forced the rebranding of Biddy Mulligan’s as Bar Dupont. There were a lot of excited folks, and when they raced out of the gates in 2005, I suddenly felt dirty, as if I had stolen someone else’s prized pig and won the County Fair. The bandwagon mentality wasn’t for me or my Hubie Brooks Expos jersey. Then, Jim Bowden and the Lerners struck. You have thought that they would have been able to improve the condition of the franchise and its major league product over its previous owners, NOBODY. However, 59-102 apparently wasn’t rock-bottom enough, so they came back with an encore. At 4-15 last week, I felt that it was time to intervene.

Basically, the Nats need a bailout in the worst way, and here is my bucket. Actually, we’ll probably need that bucket temporarily as 1-3 inches more of rain is in the forecast. Use of the bucket comes with a few provisions and disclaimers:

1. No one is off limits. This includes Zimmerman (both of em), Dukes, Manny, Stan, the batboy, Teddy, and yes, even all those fans disguised as empty seats.
2. For every ill-fated barb or attempt at humor, some sort of constructive criticism or praise will be provided.
3. I will not be made fun of for applying for the open General Manager position.
4. Not all posts will pertain strictly to National’s baseball. Some will be in regards to Natinals baseball.
5. Most posts will be written sans pants.

That is all I ask in return for this bucket.