Updates: Ivy and Little MAAC

Ivy

Summary: Penn is looking much improved and a possible contender next year, but this year they are a shooter short.  They return everyone except Matt Howard… should be a real threat.  Princeton is the consensus favorite, but they have looked pedestrian against their non-conference peers.  I watched them build an 8-million point lead against VCU before turning it off for some sex and wake up the next morning to find they lost by 11.  Losing Hans Brace is tough, but I just don’t think they are better than Harvard. The Crimson have played a good schedule, with only Howard as a true weak game, and look to be trending upwards.

What I got wrong: Nothing

Prognosis: Conference of four “HAVES” and four “HAVE NOTS”.  The HAVE NOTS will occasionally steal a home game, but this is looking more like 10-4 or 4-10 with nothing in between.  Harvard stands the best chance of going 12-2.  Neither Cornell nor Dartmouth are bad enough to go 2-12.

IVY	Preseason	Realtime
1	Harvard	Harvard
2	Princeton	Princeton
3	Yale	Yale
4	Pennsylvania	Pennsylvania
5	Brown	Brown
6	Columbia	Columbia
7	Dartmouth	Dartmouth
8	Cornell	Cornell

Metro-Atlantic Athletic

Summary: Always one of my favorite conferences to grab a live game.  The addition of Monmouth raised the stakes, and the Hawks have responded with formidable teams.  In the fall, I said they needed to go 3-2 in their Top 100 games to squeeze out an at large birth.  They went 2-3, and Syracuse turned out to be total crap, which will probably make that 2-2 by the end of the year.  They then decided to drop two inexcusable games to kick off the New Year.  Iona has closed the gap considerably, and Canisius has made huge strides under Reggie Witherspoon.  Fairfield has introduced some tempo and also looks to be solid.  Niagara isn’t nearly as bad as expected.

What I got wrong: Siena has missed a couple guys for a few games here and there, and not being a deep team, that may have swung games against GW, UNCA, FGCU.  Canisius looks promising and can shoot the lights out (who knew?).  Marist and Manhattan are just not good teams that have been railroaded by better teams and lack a go-to skill set that can win them games.

Prognosis: Canisius regresses some and the MAAC becomes a 3 horse race with Monmouth out front.  Siena has some ground to make up, but has the second most talented team here. Neither St. Pete’s or Rider have shown much in the non-conference slate, but each have a win over Monmouth, so, they got that going for them, which is nice.

MAAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Monmouth	Monmouth
2	Siena	Iona
3	Fairfield	Fairfield
4	Saint Peter's	Siena
5	Iona	Canisius
6	Manhattan	Saint Peter's
7	Marist	Rider
8	Canisius	Manhattan
9	Rider	Niagara
10	Quinnipiac	Marist
11	Niagara	Quinnipiac

2017 Predictions: The Mid-Majors

So maybe I don't follow the NCAA criteria for conference classifications... sue me.  I remember a time when the WAC was so big and powerful, they had a WAC-off to see which of the 16 teams could garner the at-large bid.  Unsure why the WAC became the AIDS of college conferences, but nobody wants to go near it... poor New Mexico State has been trying to escape for ages.  Typically they would be a lock to win, but Grand Canyon has been playing some good ball and should lock up the regular season title despite not being eligible for the NCAA tournament.

Monmouth should cruise this year, and there are a few other fringe Top 25 teams lurking in this group.  The Ivy League should be a dogfight at the top, and those 2 Harvard/Princeton games are must see TV, but nobody can sleep on Yale.  Same with Chattanooga and East Tennessee State atop the Southern, but Mercer is lurking as a dark horse.  Valpo will see a drop off that will allow Green Bay to get back to the Dance with its methodical approach.  UNCW is geared to repeat, but the seismic shifts in the CAA have left a power void that could be grabbed by anyone, but my guess would be Charleston or Elon.  Belmont continues to rule the OVC, but probably doesn't have the threats to sneak up to the 12/13 line, nor do they have the talent or depth to win from the 15 line.  My "so dark it may be invisible" horse would be Northern Arizona to find their legs and start laying the wood in Flagstaff again.

Anyways, here are the projected standings.