There is not a slight between these 8 conferences and the 8 referenced under “One-Bid” (coming soon) other than I feel that the 2-3 best teams in these conferences are more likely to be a factor on the bubble come February.
The Mountain West is still several seasons away from being a legitimate multi-bid threat again. It’s a shame, because the old WAC was home to some of the nation’s most exciting basketball. When the MWC broke away, they took the heart of the conference. It has fought small battles of attrition to football, but it looks to be taking its toll. New Mexico and UNLV have been staggering aimlessly for several seasons. Wyoming, Fresno St and Utah St are consistently unable to break through. Nevada was a very fringy Bubble team last year (likely “Next Four Out” had they not claimed an auto bid). San Diego State could go either way. I’ve never been a fan of the coaching coattails, but the word out is that Dutcher has been doing the grunt work here for much more of their run than I would have believed. Eustachy has the Rams pointed in the right direction, but they are not deep at all. The conference just doesn’t draw from the Big 12/PAC 12 reservoir the way it used to.
The Missouri Valley has reloaded about as well as it could from the Creighton and Wichita defections. The conference had survived the losses of Tulsa, Cincinnati, Louisville before that. The difference is that those are larger cities that have their own sports world. Valpo falls into mould of the other schools (ISU, ISU, SIU, NIU, MSU), with great tradition, but not much happening in a small town to sell recruits on MVC over Big East, AAC, or even Big Ten. The MVC needs a winner in Loyola to pipeline talent back into the conference. The play deliberately, and with the Redbirds and Panthers struggling, there isn’t much resistance. Bradley will be a shocker, as they have been left for dead for several seasons. Not seeing much more than an auto bid here, unless somebody pulls together 30 wins.
Not much to say about the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga reloaded, but St. Mary’s has the NBA talent this year, and should be able to take 2 of 3. BYU will be exciting until Emery has a meltdown on the road and costs them a couple winnable games. Too much turnover in the conference the last 2 years to generate many other threats. Santa Clara is building a solid system and base, but they need way more talent to crack the top 3.
The CAA was a potential multi-bid league with UNCW and Charleston playing tight most of the way, but Charleston fizzled, now the Seahawks have graduated most of their diamonds in the rough. Elon and Towson are competent enough to make a run. The Tribe lost some of their underrated talent that made Williamsburg a very difficult place to win the last few years.
The loss of Valpo from the Horizon makes this a very unappealing slate of teams. The Norse are on the map in the wake of Alec Peters late season injury, but it is unlikely Oakland craps the bed again like they did last season. The Phoenix never figured out how to score at that tempo, and that doesn’t figure to change this season.
The Ivy is a tale of 4 Haves and 4 Have Nots. Any one of the top 4 can steal the auto bid, but I’m not sure anybody is going to catch the scheduling breaks to be at-large worthy. Dartmouth, Brown, and Cornell are several steps down from the top four, and there is a pretty large break between the Tigers and Lions. Princeton has lost the most from last year, though it still can run away with this. My money would be on the FBS-level talent at Harvard, or the depth at Yale, but never rule out the ability of Penn to spread and shoot.
Monmouth’s stranglehold on the Little MAAC (though what’s it say about the MAC that they rate below here) is over with nary an NCAA bid. Manhattan has assembled a formidable team. Iona has been solid for years and are not going away, though Fairfield could be the sleeper here. Also, never count Siena out in the MAAC tourney.
Conference USA is where things typically go to die, and there isn’t much coming out this year. ODU will bore you to death, and both Charlotte and Marshall will ignore defensive obligations, making MTSU the favorite again. UTEP and LaTech will win 20 games and be thorns in their side. The most interesting pieces are North Texas and UTSA, both of whom can make an unexpected run up a weak conference… the Hilltoppers dream about what might have been, though the concern to me is how Stansbury lined that deal up.
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