Small Conferences

OK, my honest bad... the Sun Belt has no business being lumped in here, but they fall at the end of the alphabet and I forgot them.

That being said... this looks like the "New Valley"... the mid major that is growing competent basketball programs and finding new player pipelines.  Scott Cross has UT Arlington humming, Troy is sharp, GSU and GSU are winning talent over their BCS counterparts.  The bottom of the conference has fallen mightily, as it seems just yesterday Little Rock was rocking Purdue.

Liberty was killed by injury last year, but should be back to top Asheville and Winthrop.

The Big West was maddeningly mediocre last season.  Long Beach looked like they blew an easy slate, but it turns out that they are not very good.  Reggie Theus is probably missing the days of easy recruiting and homecourt advantage in Las Cruces; Northridge isn't getting much better this season. Davis will slide back to the field after last year's run.  I expect Hawaii to pull it together for a run after having to sit last year out.

The Northeast Conference is a total wild card.  St. Francis PA looks the deepest, but I could see any of the top 8 sneaking into Dayton and making some noise.

Florida Gulf Coast is so much deeper and more prepared than the rest of this conference it is not even funny.  In other seasons, I would give Lipscomb some hope, but I'd expect FGCU to nearly run the table.

The Southland is balanced.

MEAC is much stronger than the SWAC this year... the SWAC is really struggling right now, both on and off the court, but Mike Davis at least seems to have Texas Southern competing at the level of the other small conferences.  The top 4 in the MEAC look OK.

Updates: Southern and Sun Belt

Southern

Summary: Chattanooga… East Tennessee State… everybody else.  Mercer went out and played a fair schedule, but has nothing to show for it.  Their plodding tactics play better in conference against weaker teams, but probably can’t shake the top two.  Furman has played teams pretty close and stolen a few.  If they had been able to topple Winthrop and Asheville, I’d be more convinced they will hang.  Greensboro is also middle of the pack.  I have been hoping Duggar Baucom’s tactics would work somewhere, but so far the results have been too erratic to trust.

What I got wrong: Samford and Furman are better than Mercer.  Everything else looks to be slotted correctly, but ETSU is much better than expected.

Prognosis: Not many surprises here.  The conference as whole plays pretty slow except The Citadel, so there are a lot of controlled, lower scoring games.  These are usually a bettors dream, but I haven’t been able to make heads or tails out of league play yet.  I’m not convinced Chattanooga can run away with this one, but they should be less prone to dropping games on the road than ETSU, as their pressure style picks up more ticky tack fouls in opposing gyms.  The bottom three teams are not going anywhere fast, but the middle 5 spots are up for grabs.  Wofford appears to be the weakest of that group, but can clearly keep games close through good foul shooting despite a sieve for defense.

SC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Chattanooga	Chattanooga
2	East Tennessee State	East Tennessee State
3	Mercer	Samford
4	UNC Greensboro	Furman
5	Furman	UNC Greensboro
6	Wofford	Mercer
7	Samford	Wofford
8	The Citadel	The Citadel
9	Virginia Military	Virginia Military
10	Western Carolina	Western Carolina

Sun Belt

Summary: For those of you not paying attention, get to know the Texas-Arlington Mavericks now, so you can take advantage of a probable first round upset in your pool.  Scott Cross will take on all challengers and plays a good inside game that is often overlooked in this age of tempo and 3’s.  After missing their first 3 chances to lock up quality wins, they dropped Texas and St. Mary’s.  Little Rock has fallen back to the pack after last year’s run, and the only team even close right now is Lafayette, though Arkansas State holds a win over them as well as the upset at Georgetown and knocking of Chattanooga and Lehigh.  Georgia Southern is strong enough to push the conference, but Arlington is a solid 13/14 seed, and everyone else is 15/16.

What I got wrong:  A little bit of everything.  Arkansas State is good, Monroe is not.  I very much overestimated Coastal Carolina’s ability to play up to the level of competition in the Sun Belt, but Cliff Ellis scheduled ambitiously… they just couldn’t beat any of the better teams.

Prognosis:  Georgia Southern catches Arkansas State and Lafayette.  Coastal Carolina rebounds to the middle of the pack.  The bottom half of the conference continues to fling up enough bricks to get into a masonry union.  Arlington walks with the regular season title and doesn’t really get challenged in the SB tourney as ASU and ULL stop overachieving.

SB	Preseason	Realtime
1	Arlington	Arlington
2	Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern
3	Coastal Carolina	Lafayette
4	Georgia State	Arkansas State
5	Little Rock	Little Rock
6	Lafayette	Georgia State
7	Monroe	Coastal Carolina
8	South Alabama	South Alabama
9	Texas State	Texas State
10	Appalachian State	Troy
11	Troy	Monroe
12	Arkansas State	Appalachian State

2017 Predictions: The Mid-Majors

So maybe I don't follow the NCAA criteria for conference classifications... sue me.  I remember a time when the WAC was so big and powerful, they had a WAC-off to see which of the 16 teams could garner the at-large bid.  Unsure why the WAC became the AIDS of college conferences, but nobody wants to go near it... poor New Mexico State has been trying to escape for ages.  Typically they would be a lock to win, but Grand Canyon has been playing some good ball and should lock up the regular season title despite not being eligible for the NCAA tournament.

Monmouth should cruise this year, and there are a few other fringe Top 25 teams lurking in this group.  The Ivy League should be a dogfight at the top, and those 2 Harvard/Princeton games are must see TV, but nobody can sleep on Yale.  Same with Chattanooga and East Tennessee State atop the Southern, but Mercer is lurking as a dark horse.  Valpo will see a drop off that will allow Green Bay to get back to the Dance with its methodical approach.  UNCW is geared to repeat, but the seismic shifts in the CAA have left a power void that could be grabbed by anyone, but my guess would be Charleston or Elon.  Belmont continues to rule the OVC, but probably doesn't have the threats to sneak up to the 12/13 line, nor do they have the talent or depth to win from the 15 line.  My "so dark it may be invisible" horse would be Northern Arizona to find their legs and start laying the wood in Flagstaff again.

Anyways, here are the projected standings.