Confirmed... and some things I did not see coming

A new segment that will likely exist primarily on Twitter. Basically a quick take of a couple of the results of the night that help explain some of the thought behind selections and seedings for this year's bracket.

6 DEC
Confirmed suspicions... that they are going to make a run in The Valley
Loyola 65, Florida 59: Loyola is a very slow, frustrating team to play.  Not necessarily like Virginia, who grinds the game to a halt, but a team that doesn't give away a lot on the offensive end as far as poor shot selection. 3 point shots are taken in rhythm to maximize conversion rate and prevent breaks the other way.  Extra passes in and out of the paint make 8-footers 6-footers, and 6-footers vulnerable for an easy backdoor cut.  I was not expecting that Florida would enter the SEC slate undefeated, but a couple losses to Duke, FSU, even Cinci or Clemson next week would risk their 1 line status... Loyola though?  Maybe Loyola is an at large caliber team.  Which is good because Valpo is a wildcard right now, hot, but untested.

Blindsided... Just because Lorenzo Romar couldn't have been THAT bad
Washington 74, Kansas 65: KU had beaten UK, blown out tourney front runners S Dakota St, Oakland, and Texas Southern, and humbled Syracuse.  I get the game was in KC as opposed to Allen, but the Huskies ran with this one late.  Typically, the better team gets behind early and just can't get enough rhythm or opportunity to comeback.  But not this time.  UW won every stage of the game and Kansas, playing more like a feisty underdog, kept up early, but just couldn't make the plays a top team would make to close out inferior competition.  And this is not indicative of the Huskies level of play.  They have struggled to beat their "peers" in the mid-level rankings (100-200) and were quite convincingly dispatched at MSG last month by Top 50 squads.

24 January Bracket Update!

January 24^th Bracket is live!

The biggest change is that I tweaked my formula to give a little bit more weight to quality wins, and penalized teams for being the conference punching bag.  Basically, your conference cannot be the self-licking ice cream cone, with certain teams riding their way to good computer rankings by going 0-10 against the top 50.

Apologies to Pittsburgh and Texas A&M.  I didn’t even have the Aggies in my matrix of Top 100 candidates.  That has been remedied, and while they didn’t make a list, they are lurking much closer to the fringe than I anticipated.  Pittsburgh was originally in my 12 seed play in game, but would have an ACC conflict with UVA in the weekend round.  They were bumped for Boise State, whose numbers are not poor, but they are hardly better than:

THE FIRST FOUR OUT

Right now, Pittsburgh and VCU are getting the raw deal.  VCU needs to keep winning, period.  There are no good losses in the A-10 right now.  As Houston fades, Memphis is probably feeling that spot is theirs to claim.  Oklahoma State and their #1 SoS needs to get back to .500 in conference to feel safe.

THE NEXT FOUR OUT

My ratings tweak mostly shuffle the deck chairs with no major impacts, other than poor Miami.  They plummet in the rating into the 60s, basically because they beat up on trash and lost to anyone meaningful they played.  Two Top 50 wins would get them back in, but there are desperate teams out there that are not going to give that up in the ACC.  Utah has decent numbers, but really are the epitome of a top-heavy PAC-12.  Ditto for Arkansas, who has the tools and opportunities to move up into the bracket.  Brigham Young is the longest of long shots, as they do not have nearly enough opportunities, and have been prone to choking those away.  One Gonzaga win changes everything.

LAST FOUR IN

Michigan, Houston, Seton Hall, Boise State.  Houston and Seton Hall were hurt a lot by the ratings tweaks, sliding down a few lines.  Neither is particularly threatening, and I could see the committee dumping them both for more attractive names.  I mean, I watch the Big East and feel Providence can get hotter than the Pirates.  Boise State may want to go claim the autobid, as their hold on this spot will only get weaker.  San Diego State in the MWC has a much stronger profile to grab that spot.  The Wolverines seem to enjoy this zone.  They can’t get hot enough to win 3-4 in a row, but they are too consistent to bottom out.

ENJOYING A SOFT BUBBLE

Michigan State, TCU, Clemson, Rhode Island

When I ran my numbers last week, it wanted Clemson as a 5 seed.  Now it has settled them into the 10-11 range, contingent they climb out of the ACC cellar.  TCU did just enough early to ride this out, but I can easily see them getting bullied into the NIT.  Rhode Island is in trouble like anyone else in to A-10 who cannot essentially win out.  8 losses there is probably doom.  Michigan State was originally on the 10 line, but lost out on the seeding shuffle to TCU (11 to 9) and UNC Wilmington (9 to 10).

THE ONE SEEDS

No matter how you slice it, Kansas and Villanova are not going anywhere until they get to 5 losses.  Everything is deep there.  The big winners are Baylor and Florida State.  FSU slides in ahead of UNC, because they have passed every test.  Baylor has been helped by West Virginia’s recent struggles, as well as the PAC-12 and SEC blowing donkeys.  None of these teams are particularly vulnerable until they lose a couple more games.  Kentucky and UNC are closest to the 1 line, though an undefeated or 1-loss Gonzaga team will be hard to ignore.  Wisconsin isn’t really close to a 1 seed, but can easily build the profile in the Big Ten.

SURPISES

Kansas State finds themselves on the 10 line, across from a much improved Virginia Tech team.  Northwestern storms the table and has the computer numbers to hold their spot, minus any more players getting relegated to janitor.  Maryland is quietly stalking Purdue.  Butler gets a huge boost from their beast non-conference slate and jumps Creighton and Xavier in the Big East pecking order.  Duke is in free-fall right now, having dropped 1 to 3 to 5 just like that, and this projection doesn’t even include last night’s collapse.

INTERESTING MATCHUPS

(5) Oregon playing the BSU/SHU winner.  Oregon should be able to run them out of the gym, but could also be vulnerable playing a team already warmed up.

(7) Xavier vs. (10) Wichita State sounds like it should be a Sweet 16 game, not a first rounder.

(4) Purdue vs. (13) Valpo in the battle for Indiana.

(6) SMU vs. (11) MSU, where it seems these seedings should be switched, right?

(4) UCLA vs. (13) Ohio… UCLA better hope this is not Akron, or one of the other 13/14 seeds that can score…. Or God forbid Princeton sneaks in again.

FUTURE TWEAKS

I plan to get a coefficient to weight last 10 games.  Not sure who this helps the most, but my thoughts are mid majors that go on a run and get upended in their conference tourney may benefit most.  BCS Bubble Teams are usually there because they can’t get over the 5-5/6-4 hump to show a run.

Update: Big 12

Big 12

Summary: The Big 12 exceeded expectations in every way: depth, quality, and ceiling.  There are 3 legitimate title contenders in Kansas, West Virginia, and Baylor.  Following non-conference play, everyone except Texas was on the bubble or securely in the dance.  Texas Tech and Kansas State played soft schedules, but everyone else took on a brutal slate.  Every pre-season rag I picked up had TCU finishing 10^th, but I knew better.  I did not think they’d start that hot, though.  Brad Underwood has made some strides in Stillwater, but this may not be their year.

What I got wrong: Baylor doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.  I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, but their numbers are through the roof.  I expected Kansas to win the Big 12, but with a much less stellar supporting cast to garner the worst 2 seed.  Right now, they would have at worst the top 2 seed, possibly a 1 when all is said and done.  I was really wrong on how much retooling Shaka Smart has at Texas.  They average less than a year of experience across the board (344^th out of 351), but he is making sure to get minutes out of everyone. 

Prognosis: I’m not willing to call a big miss on Kansas State or Oklahoma yet.  OU should rebound onto the bubble with the return of Jordan Woodard. K-State has no scalps to claim and is a major candidate for regression.  Texas Tech is not far ahead, but they have the wins over WVU and KSU.  Because nobody has yet cracked the nut on the Press Virginia, it is quite possible it goes unsolved all year.  The more I watch it, the more it becomes disciplined chaos as opposed to blind luck and officials swallowing whistles.  Nobody is talking about Iowa State… partly because they choked away signature wins against Gonzaga and Cincinnati, but also because they lack a national headliner or front man.  Steve Prohm and his 250 lbs guard Deonte Burton are the next best team here and are 6-7 seed material.

B12	Preseason	Realtime
1	Kansas	Kansas
2	West Virginia	West Virginia
3	Iowa State	Baylor
4	Texas	Iowa State
5	Oklahoma	Texas Christian
6	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma
7	Texas Tech	Texas Tech
8	Texas Christian	Oklahoma State
9	Baylor	Kansas State
10	Kansas State	Texas