Bubble Profiles- Notre Dame

So the ACC Tournament has been on ESPN, so you probably have not heard the talking heads shut up about Notre Dame making the tournament.  This is certainly an argument one can make.  Notre Dame, despite a seven game losing streak, was still a good team even without Colson, Harvey, and Farrell.  They just didn’t have the ability to finish games anymore.  The Irish have remained in the Top 40 in efficiency in KenPom, Top 40 Rated by Sagarin, and they started 3-0 in the ACC. I had them as my preseason favorite to win the ACC.  But injuries happen, but honestly, it is more than just injuries. Some of it is just luck, which the Irish have had little to none of this season, which is something that will get covered here.

The Irish Profile:

15 games without Colson (6-9)

5 games without Farrell (1-4)

1 game without Pflueger (0-1)

15 games (and counting, so really shouldn’t roll into their case, or then we have to put Maryland in the field) without Harvey (7-8)

The Irish have not played well since the injury bug hit.  But what about before?

Win @DePaul (Q3, not useful but a road win to bank)

Win vs LSU (Neutral, Q2, LSU was much better than expected)

Win vs Wichita St (Neutral, unbelievable steal of a Q1 here, as ND almost never led, and had 3% chance of winning with 21 seconds left)

Bottom Line: they won the Maui, which Michigan, Marquette, and Wichita State cannot claim (though with Cal and VCU down, this was a shit field… the fact that Chaminade did not finish last is also evidence of that).

Then:

Loss at Michigan St (Q1, OK)

Loss vs Ball St (WHAAAA, OK I get it, buzzer beater, but still Q3)

Loss vs Indiana (also, not good, Q3)

They sneaked past Dartmouth too.

Uh, that looks like an NIT team.  So now the luck factor.  Here is how Pomeroy defines his “Luck Rating”:

Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

I like to look at it as the team with the ball last is most likely to win, just like football.  If your offense averages more than a point per possession, you have to be feeling pretty good in a tie game.  The Irish struck the pot of gold against the Shockers, but had been snake eyes since.  Buzzer beater to Ball State, OT to Indiana (98.5% chance of winning), 1 pt loss to UNC, OT loss to Louisville.  I eyeballed the chart a month ago and saw them hanging around -.120 in the luck category, indicating that they had probably coughed up 3 wins along the way (standard deviation is actually around .051).  They finished the season at .055, which is a standard deviation out side the norm, but really only cause to believe they LOST one game by a bad break.

The 41 team Bubble (that reaches down and grabs “not gonna happens” like Davidson and Maryland, as well as some auto qualifiers) 3rd in basic efficiency, and 4th in efficiency strength.  This reflects a very good team.  But reaching back to the Maryland example, they are 15th and 12th here, and not even in the discussion.  Their Quadrant Win value is 36th, which means their results profile like a mid-major.  Their case is similar to Penn State’s actually, with the injury wrinkle.  

I have them a few spots out right now, with no way to make up ground, and Nevada potentially stealing a spot, as well as potentially an A-10 team. Duke probably would have been enough, but as it stands, Ball State at home with the whole team intact killed them.

8 March Bracket

Arizona State falls to first team out, now needs lots of help.  Marquette on the line today, assuming OSU or ND doesn't run them off.

Bubble Watch- Arizona State

Let’s take a look at Arizona State’s “Body of Work”.  The media blew their wad early, projecting the Sun Devils to be a 1 seed, despite very little evidence that their performance was sustainable.  They opened with one true road game (Kansas), three neutral site games (Kansas State, Xavier, Saint John’s, and eight home games, highlighted by perennial MWC contender San Diego State, Big West frontrunner UC Irvine, improving WCC squads San Francisco and Pacific, and and upper half SEC team from last season in Vanderbilt. Idaho State, Northern Arizona, and Longwood were empty calories.

Overall, this was a pretty damn good schedule.  To go 12-0 against it is more than impressive, as at the time, KSU was also considered an upset.  But al the metrics still pointed to the fact that ASU had performed well, but still ranked in the low 20’s.  The likeliness of them shooting 45% from 3 for the season was unlikely, and their defense wasn’t really preventing points.

The Pac-12 League schedule is a different story.  With unbalanced schedules, everyone can claim foul that they got a raw deal.  So what about their schedule stands out?

Home-and-Home against Arizona (Loss/Loss)- This is a missed opportunity as the Wildcats were the only true Q1 win they could have gotten at home.

Road games at altitude (Loss/Win)- The second toughest component of the Pac-12 schedule, outside of Tucson, is the double to Utah and Colorado.  The elevation will either get you up front, or the one day recovery time will not be enough for the second game.  ASU got a two day break on their trip and recovered to steal one from Utah.  This was arguably the last “great” thing they did this season.

Road games at Oregon/OSU (Loss/Loss)- Hard places to win, but both these teams kind of stink this year. OSU is back to a solid brand with Tres running the show, but ASU needed one of these to prove the still had “it”.

Road games at USC/UCLA (-/-)- ASU managed to avoid the other two best teams in the conference in their gym.

Home games vs USC/UCLA (Win/Win)- Literally the ONLY reason this is a discussion.

Road games at UW/WSU (Loss/Win)- Not the worst outcome, but they struggled to put away a terrible WAZZU.

What should have been absolutely FREE: Home-and-Home vs Stanford/Cal, Home against Utah/Colorado/Oregon/OSU, neutral site against Colorado.  A great team goes 9-0 here. A good team goes 8-1, and middling fringe bubble team maybe goes 7-2 or so.  The Sun Devils went 4-5 against dreck, with only 4 of those games on the road.

The Sun Devils do not have the injury crutch to fall back on to explain their lackluster performance.  They finished 1-5 with the win against Cal at home, which probably hurts their RPI more than helps it.

Bottom line, this is no longer a team capable of winning an NCAA tournament game.

Rapid Update, 8 MAR

Ah, a night off.

No changes, just locking in some autobids.  St. Mary's will likely slide a line or two after some of these first round games shake out.

Also, here is the bubble I am working off of... Red is first four out, Orange next four, Maroon next four after that, and white are teams not really being considered.

Monmouth has one of those completely unreasonable NFL playoff scenarios that require ties and margin of victory and multiple opponents strength of schedule, but losses by Vandy, Xavier, Syracuse, Wake, KSU, USC, Utah, Cal, and Iowa and they are right back in this thing.

Monday Analysis

Gonzaga’s loss took the shine off their numbers, and they slid behind Villanova for the number 1 overall seed.  The bracket flips around to the East, UNC goes South, Kansas Midwest, and Gonzaga in the West.   Oregon has none of the requisite numbers to displace the Zags, and while Louisville has a great resume, they probably need to win the ACC tourney to make the 1 line.  The biggest surprise is Butler moving up courtesy of its sweep of Nova.  The few bad losses are far enough in the rearview mirror.  Kentucky gets the nod over Florida and Duke for now.  Duke could get hot at any time.  Baylor (Monday’s game in progress) has slipped from fringe 1 seed to 13^th, between UCLA and FSU.

Other surprises:

Virginia is in good shape for a team having lost four in a row.  Oklahoma State’s numbers are still 22^nd in these rankings, but are trending upwards.  Xavier is in total freefall.  I think I had them as a 3 seed at the beginning of the month.  Every year somebody has bad luck and collapses… they seem to be that team this year.

Using the methodology explained a few weeks ago, Locks are filtered out from the Basic Rating, refiltered using the Schedule Strength rating, and then the final slots are picked using the Normalized numbers to factor in "who might actually be trending toward winning an NCAA Tourney Game."

Safe Teams:

Teams Enjoying a Collapsing Bubble:

Make no mistake, there are very few years when teams outside the top 60 RPI are getting serious looks, but the fact people still haven’t given up on TCU, Texas Tech, KSU, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Alabama, Providence, Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Clemson, Pitt, Utah… yeah, it’s messy.  Vanderbilt was DOA 3 weeks ago.  Now they are in without anybody running them out.

Here is the biggest issue.  Too many programs have afforded themselves the luxury of scheduling 13 home games in advance of their conference slate.  The numbers are fooled and then all they have to do is ride strength of their conference to the finish line.  This year there are plenty of decent mid-major teams; it’s just that few are in the same conferences together.  Typically the MWC, MVC, Horizon, C-USA, and CAA have 3 or 4 decent bubble teams propping up its softer teams.  This year, either the those teams in the 2-4 slots are weak, or the bottom of the conference has been so bad the top two teams get virtually no credit for 20 point wins.

So these guys are winning just enough to keep those mid-majors at bay, until we start seeing some March upsets:

Maryland, Michigan State, Marquette, Arkansas, Northwestern

I could throw Michigan in there as well, but their computer numbers are actually quite good.  Their RPI had been dragging them down till last week.  Even 2 bad losses will only push them down a line or two.  These 5 are joined by Illinois State and VCU as the two other non-power conference teams that are safe (St. Mary’s and Cincinnati are the other two, with WSU, Dayton, Zags, and SMU projected to grab auto bids).

Here are the teams I think are going to have to play their way in from here:

Virginia Tech, California, Xavier, USC

If I were USC, I would not consider losing any more games.  They still look good from an RPI perspective, but their wins are Charmin soft, and not frequent of late.  Xavier has been discussed, and Cal is one-dimensional and saw their ticket punch snapped away by Dillon Brooks last week.  VT is the safest of these guys and with two jobs in Blacksburg can jump ahead of Miami.

LAST FOUR IN:

Syracuse, Rhode Island, Vanderbilt, Houston

The Orange are probably going to end up staying home… just a gut feeling for last season’s fortune.  They have the wins, but can’t win away from the Dome, and will likely draw a hungry VT or Miami team.  URI is still on life support after beating VCU at home… not all that impressive.  Houston still needs a signature win to hold off a run by one of the first 8 out.  Vanderbilt actually has a 6-4 record against the top 50.  They are like Syracuse, but with a much more difficult path, with both UK and UF this week.  A split may get them in, despite 15 losses.  Likely they will be heading home as well.

* Note: to meet seeding criteria, Vandy was given the last bye and USC was rotated to the play-in game.

FIRST FOUR OUT

Providence

Yeah, a solid argument can be made over any of the last 4 teams, plus USC.  Who would have guessed the Ed Cooley could reload that quickly, but they have two soft games to get to a likely 4^th place finish.  They are likely going to work their way into an 11 seed.  Today, just not enough there.

Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Kansas State

People keep talking up the Pirates, and I like them, but the numbers don’t lie.  At best, they can work into the play-in game.  More than likely, they need a shot at Providence in the BE Tourney to eliminate the competition.  Xavier is vulnerable too.  Wake still has not gotten a signature win, and Louisville could be that one scalp they need to get them committee’s buy in.  14 losses is a lot, but 15 is certain death.  KSU is 2-8 down the stretch, and games against TCU and TTU are not going to save their profile, as both of them are well outside the Top 50 RPI.

NEXT FOUR OUT

Indiana, Georgia, BYU, Illinois

I’ll admit, I wasn’t even tracking Illinois and Vandy until yesterday… they were not even on the bubble… after 3 straight road wins, they are officially the 76^th team.  If any of the following mid majors lose in the conference tourneys, they jump into the line ahead of them:

Princeton, Nevada, Vermont, Arlington, Monmouth, East Tennessee State

If MTSU loses in the C-USA tourney, they will likely still be a 10 seed.  If UNCW loses in the CAA semifinals or finals, they will be a 12 seed or play-in candidate.  Nevada has the best opportunity to play their way to a third at-large caliber bubble team based on SoS, but none of those games will amount to a top 50 win.  Monmouth, Vermont, and Princeton will have their RPI obliterated with a loss… very unlikely, despite favorable computer numbers, any of them get serious consideration.

FEB 21st Bracket- Doesn’t include Tuesday’s games.

The top four seeds stay the same, though Villanova and Gonzaga are basically identical, and UNC and Kansas are pretty close as well.  Nova can play their way back to the top seed, and UNC can pretty easily end up the #3 overall.  The bracket will realign with Nova in the East… for now this is acceptable.  Kentucky move back to the 2 line… barely.  They still don’t look game to stay ahead of Florida.

As this bubble l;itterally collapse on itself with a lack of mid-majors and sub .500 BCS teams imploding and crapping the bed on the road, the play in games shift back a seed line to accommodate for the fact that a 14/15 loss Syracuse team with 2 road/neutral wins does not belong ahead of numerous 26-30 win mid-major champions.

LAST FOUR IN: Michigan State, Houston, Syracuse, Alabama.  This is about as close as the SEC can get to a 5^th team.  Georgia can’t beat anybody significant, and nobody else can string together 3 wins in a row.  UNCW and MTSU could do the committee a favor and lose in their conference tourneys to provide a few stronger options.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Rhode Island, TCU, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall.  TCU and URI really belong in the field, but bad recent losses have them in the penalty box.  Georgia Tech and Seton Hall are a barrage of potential, but just put too many questionable losses out there.

NEXT FOUR OUT: Indiana, Texas Tech, Georgetown, Clemson.  A couple of dumpster dives into the RPI here with Indiana and Texas Tech.  Both need a huge win streak of Top 50 and road variety to prove anything.  Clemson and Georgetown have the strength of schedule, but man, Clemson hit the wall so hard they could put Humpty Dumpty back together again.  ETSU jumped into the field over Chatt and Furman.

Fun Matchups!

Dayton vs Xavier- Battle of I-75!  Xavier is reeling right now and probably didn’t expect to be the lower seed here.

Saint Mary’s vs Princeton (in Sacto): Virtual home pod for the Gaels, but Princeton can compete and the crawling tempo.

Wichita State vs Kansas State: KSU can beat anyone, anywhere, on any night.  Shockers have not had many opportunities and the winner of this battle for the Sunflower State could be a Final Four darkhorse.

Wisconsin vs Vermont: Wisconsin has shown they do not have the depth and the Cats could expose that.

Notre Dame vs Marquette: Two Coach K prodigies, different generations.  The over under here could over 170.

ACC

Locks- 6: UNC, Louisville, Duke, FSU, UVA*, Notre Dame

Good Shape- 2: Miami, VT (they can exhale now)

Bubble- 4: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Clemson (probably finished), Wake

There is no way that 11 teams can get in.  There just isn’t enough wins out there.  If GT and Cuse split, it probably eliminates both of them (especially if they can’t harvest road wins).  Wake needs to win out and can change their lack of good wins..

Big 12

Locks- 3: KU, Baylor, WVU

Good Shape-2: OSU, ISU

Bubble- 3: KSU, TCU, Texas Tech

TTU has a lot of ground to cover… their profile is weak mid major, and now that they are way behind in the standings…  Beard, Dixon, and Weber have done some great triage on some hurting [rograms.

Big East

Locks- 3: Nova, Butler, Creighton

Good Shape- 1: Xavier (yikes)

Bubble- 4: Marquette, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Providence

Xavier needs to right the ship soon or they could easily fall into double digit bubble trouble.  Marquette still has work to do, and the Hoyas and Friars are all but dead.

Big 10

Locks- 3: Purdue, Wisconsin, MD

Good Shape- 3: NW, Minnesota, Michigan

Bubble- 2: MSU, Indiana

Hoosiers RPI is probably too much to overcome, unless they beat Purdue twice down the stretch.  Crazy to think they could knock off both UNC AND Kansas and stagger into an NIT road game.  MSU probably can’t afford a split in their final 4 games… Nebraska and Illinois are not quality wins.

PAC 12

Locks- 4: Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, USC

Bubble- 1: California

Just commentary, but not sure I get the Markelle Fultz hype.  The PAC 12 is mid-major quality outside the top 3, and he could only help put up 2 league wins?  The Huskies have killed TCU’s RPI!

SEC

Locks- 2: UK, Florida

Good Shape- 2: USC, Arkansas

Bubble- 1: Alabama

Ole Miss and Auburn have wins, Tennessee has RPI, Georgia has broken hearts… none are even that close.

A-10

Locks- 2: Dayton, VCU

Bubble- 1: URI

WCC

Locks- 2: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

AAC

Locks- 2: Cincinnati, SMU

Bubble- 1: Houston

MVC

Locks- 2: WSU, ISU

I don’t get the anti-WSU/ISU rhetoric coming out of Bristol.  The Shockers have 4 losses, all to teams projected to be in the tournament.  Sure, LSU and OU being among the worst teams in the country have hurt their RPI, and the bottom heavy MVC hasn’t helped.  The Redbirds have won 16 of 17, but their schedule is significantly weaker.  The split with Tulsa hurts.  Murray State hurts.  The committee will probably punk the loser to the play-in game, and if it’s the Shockers, they can make a solid run.  Regardless, a 6 loss ISU team should be in.

Other Leagues

Locks- 1: MTSU

Good Shape- 1: UNCW

Bubble- 5: Nevada, Vermont, Monmouth, Arlington, ETSU

These are in no particular order.  MTSU can afford a loss or two.  UNCW cannot and would be smart at least make the CAA semifinals, losing to Charleston.  Of the other 5, Monmouth is the only one with a solid paper case, but Memphis falling apart has not helped.  They need Princeton to be a Top 50 team… man, that USC game would have been their free pass.

52 locks (30 plus one bid leagues), 11 in good shape, and 22 teams vying for 5 slots.  MADNESS.

24 January Bracket Update!

January 24^th Bracket is live!

The biggest change is that I tweaked my formula to give a little bit more weight to quality wins, and penalized teams for being the conference punching bag.  Basically, your conference cannot be the self-licking ice cream cone, with certain teams riding their way to good computer rankings by going 0-10 against the top 50.

Apologies to Pittsburgh and Texas A&M.  I didn’t even have the Aggies in my matrix of Top 100 candidates.  That has been remedied, and while they didn’t make a list, they are lurking much closer to the fringe than I anticipated.  Pittsburgh was originally in my 12 seed play in game, but would have an ACC conflict with UVA in the weekend round.  They were bumped for Boise State, whose numbers are not poor, but they are hardly better than:

THE FIRST FOUR OUT

Right now, Pittsburgh and VCU are getting the raw deal.  VCU needs to keep winning, period.  There are no good losses in the A-10 right now.  As Houston fades, Memphis is probably feeling that spot is theirs to claim.  Oklahoma State and their #1 SoS needs to get back to .500 in conference to feel safe.

THE NEXT FOUR OUT

My ratings tweak mostly shuffle the deck chairs with no major impacts, other than poor Miami.  They plummet in the rating into the 60s, basically because they beat up on trash and lost to anyone meaningful they played.  Two Top 50 wins would get them back in, but there are desperate teams out there that are not going to give that up in the ACC.  Utah has decent numbers, but really are the epitome of a top-heavy PAC-12.  Ditto for Arkansas, who has the tools and opportunities to move up into the bracket.  Brigham Young is the longest of long shots, as they do not have nearly enough opportunities, and have been prone to choking those away.  One Gonzaga win changes everything.

LAST FOUR IN

Michigan, Houston, Seton Hall, Boise State.  Houston and Seton Hall were hurt a lot by the ratings tweaks, sliding down a few lines.  Neither is particularly threatening, and I could see the committee dumping them both for more attractive names.  I mean, I watch the Big East and feel Providence can get hotter than the Pirates.  Boise State may want to go claim the autobid, as their hold on this spot will only get weaker.  San Diego State in the MWC has a much stronger profile to grab that spot.  The Wolverines seem to enjoy this zone.  They can’t get hot enough to win 3-4 in a row, but they are too consistent to bottom out.

ENJOYING A SOFT BUBBLE

Michigan State, TCU, Clemson, Rhode Island

When I ran my numbers last week, it wanted Clemson as a 5 seed.  Now it has settled them into the 10-11 range, contingent they climb out of the ACC cellar.  TCU did just enough early to ride this out, but I can easily see them getting bullied into the NIT.  Rhode Island is in trouble like anyone else in to A-10 who cannot essentially win out.  8 losses there is probably doom.  Michigan State was originally on the 10 line, but lost out on the seeding shuffle to TCU (11 to 9) and UNC Wilmington (9 to 10).

THE ONE SEEDS

No matter how you slice it, Kansas and Villanova are not going anywhere until they get to 5 losses.  Everything is deep there.  The big winners are Baylor and Florida State.  FSU slides in ahead of UNC, because they have passed every test.  Baylor has been helped by West Virginia’s recent struggles, as well as the PAC-12 and SEC blowing donkeys.  None of these teams are particularly vulnerable until they lose a couple more games.  Kentucky and UNC are closest to the 1 line, though an undefeated or 1-loss Gonzaga team will be hard to ignore.  Wisconsin isn’t really close to a 1 seed, but can easily build the profile in the Big Ten.

SURPISES

Kansas State finds themselves on the 10 line, across from a much improved Virginia Tech team.  Northwestern storms the table and has the computer numbers to hold their spot, minus any more players getting relegated to janitor.  Maryland is quietly stalking Purdue.  Butler gets a huge boost from their beast non-conference slate and jumps Creighton and Xavier in the Big East pecking order.  Duke is in free-fall right now, having dropped 1 to 3 to 5 just like that, and this projection doesn’t even include last night’s collapse.

INTERESTING MATCHUPS

(5) Oregon playing the BSU/SHU winner.  Oregon should be able to run them out of the gym, but could also be vulnerable playing a team already warmed up.

(7) Xavier vs. (10) Wichita State sounds like it should be a Sweet 16 game, not a first rounder.

(4) Purdue vs. (13) Valpo in the battle for Indiana.

(6) SMU vs. (11) MSU, where it seems these seedings should be switched, right?

(4) UCLA vs. (13) Ohio… UCLA better hope this is not Akron, or one of the other 13/14 seeds that can score…. Or God forbid Princeton sneaks in again.

FUTURE TWEAKS

I plan to get a coefficient to weight last 10 games.  Not sure who this helps the most, but my thoughts are mid majors that go on a run and get upended in their conference tourney may benefit most.  BCS Bubble Teams are usually there because they can’t get over the 5-5/6-4 hump to show a run.