I was going to discuss the closed polls results, and how three of the four options had been rendered obsolete. However, Mr. Rizzo has been busy, closing a couple deals.
Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett
The easiest thing to do is to break this into two separate trades, OF for OF, P for P. From the Nationals perspective, given the players involved, it was an offer Rizzo couldn't refuse. The two areas that needed to be addressed were the bullpen and the defense. Nyjer Morgan more than addresses the defense. He can play CF if necessary, which will allow the Nats to keep Dunn, Willingham, and Dukes fresh in the corners. Harris loses out the most in the deal, as he will probably see his playing time cut in half. Burnett is Rizzo's dream... a left-handed, ground-ball, relief pitcher. He has battled back from injury to become a solid major league reliever and will be under control for a couple more seasons. He will benefit from working with two veteran LOOGYs in Villone and Beimel.
So what did the Nats give up? Starting with Hanrahan, since fans have been dealing with his shenanigans all season. Hanrahan was great last year, but pretty well abused. 84 innings of relief on 69 appearances is a number relievers build toward. Hanrahan had been a starter in 2006 and 2007. Basically, Hanrahan could get back to his 2008 form with a couple months off, but does that even make him as valuable to the Nats as Burnett? Villone is 40. Not quite. Lastings Milledge, on the other hand, doesn't need rest. Who knows what he needs... for him to make up for his defensive deficiencies, he needs to hit as well the premier corner outfielder in the league. Nick Markakis is a good young comp. Does anyone believe that is possible for Milledge? Sure, maybe for a couple months, but he is a natural underachiever, a tease. Guys like JD Drew show flashes of their potential, but rarely put it together for 162 games, and that the player the optimists refuse to see in Milledge. However, after watching him play first hand for a few years, the patterns are obvious.
It is difficult to criticize the Nats for making this move. Milledge offered the current major league roster nothing. Hanrahan had been banished to the mop-up role. Burnett will pitch high-leverage innings and Morgan will start in the outfield five days a week. Honestly, what are the Pirates going to do with the players they got? This trade gets a solid B+ for now and really will not look bad unless Milledge turns into Sammy Sosa.
...
Man, does Elijah Dukes ever field a ball cleanly in the outfield? Stammen's third time through the order woes continue, further indicating that he may have more work to do in AAA before formally claiming a rotation spot for next season. Not sure what is wrong with Nick Johnson, but he isn't showcasing his talent very well for contenders right now... Guzman has made up for a rough outing at the plate with a great dive and throw early in the game. Zimmerman, on the other hand... woof, 3 error games aren't helping the pitchers, especially the relievers. Clippard may not have the stuff to be effective for long runs, though his delivery can be deceptive enough to kill AAA guys.
...
To the poll. The Nats have officially addressed the bullpen. Colome and Tavarez are crappy guys, but almost every team has one of them. Teams try to get a few innings out of them before they wear out their welcome. Manny isn't going to be fired in the immediate future, and Rizzo has earned the right to see his handiwork through. The Nationals haven't dealt Nick Johnson, and have made a few moves that may make that unnecessary. Tough to really say what additional moves can be made to improve a team that dominates innings 1-5, but then stagger back to the clubhouse two out of three times. I'll try to think of a new poll, maybe two.
The symmetry for The Bombs is beautiful, 50 posts in May, 50 in June... it will be difficult to keep that pace through July, but the staff at The Bombs will try.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
More on Olsen
Chico was all over this.
Looking at the pitch f/x data, the fastball velocity is back up two mph. That is good, but great will be if he can add a little bit more as his arm gets extended this summer. The most notable thing that sets this start apart from those he made earlier this season is that he was able to locate three distinct pitches, and even threw a couple 2-seamed fastballs for good measure. The keys, though, are graphs 5 and 6, which show three distinct pitches, staggered by several mph each. Earlier in the season, these plots were erratic, with the three pitches blending together.
The problem is that Olsen has teased with his talents before. Don't buy in until all the evidence is on the table.
Looking at the pitch f/x data, the fastball velocity is back up two mph. That is good, but great will be if he can add a little bit more as his arm gets extended this summer. The most notable thing that sets this start apart from those he made earlier this season is that he was able to locate three distinct pitches, and even threw a couple 2-seamed fastballs for good measure. The keys, though, are graphs 5 and 6, which show three distinct pitches, staggered by several mph each. Earlier in the season, these plots were erratic, with the three pitches blending together.
The problem is that Olsen has teased with his talents before. Don't buy in until all the evidence is on the table.
Scott Olsen Goes 7 Deep
Disappointing the bullpen imploded again (yes, 3 walks and 2 extra base hits to get 3 outs fits the description). This is doubly disappointing, as Marlins scrap heap find Dan Meyer appeared in his 37th game of the year and escaped without yielding his eighth earned run.
Olsen, on the other hand, probably shocked everybody associated with the organization by finding his fastball/slider combo and embarrassing the Marlins for seven innings, really only slipping up while facing the bottom of the Marlins order in the third. I hope to get the pitch f/x on this this week to see if this was 2006 Scott Olsen coming back, or a flash in the pan performance because he's pissed at the Marlins.
Who knows with these characters...
Olsen, on the other hand, probably shocked everybody associated with the organization by finding his fastball/slider combo and embarrassing the Marlins for seven innings, really only slipping up while facing the bottom of the Marlins order in the third. I hope to get the pitch f/x on this this week to see if this was 2006 Scott Olsen coming back, or a flash in the pan performance because he's pissed at the Marlins.
Who knows with these characters...
Monday, June 29, 2009
Marlins Series Preview
Monday: Scott Olsen at Ricky Nolasco
Tuesday: Jordan Zimmermann at Sean West
Wednesday: Ross Detwiler at Josh Johnson
Talk about two teams trying to build around young pitching. Ricky Nolasco is the older pitcher starting in this series, and he is only 26. Olsen and Johnson are 25, and the other three guys are born in 1986, when it was still Hip to Be Square (note, Bale says 1987, which is incorrect, as “Fore” was released in 1986).
Nolasco has been experiencing his own Jekyll and Hyde act, though he has been much more Jekyll than Hyde recently. The Marlins gave him a couple weeks off at the end of May, and since then, he has regained his 2008 form (Rizzo, take notes). Josh Johnson is in the running for Cy Young, and Sean West is showing that he may be capable of replicating Johnson’s success. The Marlins have not been able to take control of this division for three reasons. First, until recently, the back end of their rotation was unsettled, much like the Nats. Now that Nolasco, West, and Andrew Miller have settled in, they have five guys that have potential frontline stuff. Second, they start the man known as “The Worst Everyday Player in Baseball”. They also choose to bat him near the top of the order. Finally, they don’t get to play the Nats everyday, to who they have yet to lose this season in six games.
The Marlins are an average offensive team, and despite their pitching prowess, a bad defensive team. Not quite as bad as the Nats, but certainly bottom third. And given the fact many of these bad fielders are young, emerging hitters, they don’t look to be getting better. Much like the Red Sox series, the Nats need to focus putting the ball in play. Dolphin Stadium is a pitcher’s park, so the key will be to work the defense and not let them off the hook.
The Nats may have dropped the first six against the fish, but that was a different team. The Marlins haven’t seen J Zimm or Detwiler, and Olsen could be out for blood because he is an angry young man. It should be noted that the Nats are 0-6 in the state of Florida, also having been swept by the Rays. One win out of three would be a nice start.
Tuesday: Jordan Zimmermann at Sean West
Wednesday: Ross Detwiler at Josh Johnson
Talk about two teams trying to build around young pitching. Ricky Nolasco is the older pitcher starting in this series, and he is only 26. Olsen and Johnson are 25, and the other three guys are born in 1986, when it was still Hip to Be Square (note, Bale says 1987, which is incorrect, as “Fore” was released in 1986).
Nolasco has been experiencing his own Jekyll and Hyde act, though he has been much more Jekyll than Hyde recently. The Marlins gave him a couple weeks off at the end of May, and since then, he has regained his 2008 form (Rizzo, take notes). Josh Johnson is in the running for Cy Young, and Sean West is showing that he may be capable of replicating Johnson’s success. The Marlins have not been able to take control of this division for three reasons. First, until recently, the back end of their rotation was unsettled, much like the Nats. Now that Nolasco, West, and Andrew Miller have settled in, they have five guys that have potential frontline stuff. Second, they start the man known as “The Worst Everyday Player in Baseball”. They also choose to bat him near the top of the order. Finally, they don’t get to play the Nats everyday, to who they have yet to lose this season in six games.
The Marlins are an average offensive team, and despite their pitching prowess, a bad defensive team. Not quite as bad as the Nats, but certainly bottom third. And given the fact many of these bad fielders are young, emerging hitters, they don’t look to be getting better. Much like the Red Sox series, the Nats need to focus putting the ball in play. Dolphin Stadium is a pitcher’s park, so the key will be to work the defense and not let them off the hook.
The Nats may have dropped the first six against the fish, but that was a different team. The Marlins haven’t seen J Zimm or Detwiler, and Olsen could be out for blood because he is an angry young man. It should be noted that the Nats are 0-6 in the state of Florida, also having been swept by the Rays. One win out of three would be a nice start.
More Moves
Scott Olsen in, Shairon Martis to Syracuse
It was inevitable that Scott Olsen was going to take someone's spot. The assumption was that it should be Jesus Colome's spot, moving Stammen to the bullpen, and that made sense based on Colome's numbers. However, Stammen is just beginning to get comfortable as a starter. He is still prone to the big inning, but is striking batters out at a reasonable rate and getting to the seventh inning occasionally. Stammen will be removed from the rotation at some point, but more likely to be shut down for the season.
Martis, on the other hand, has been laboring mightily since his shutout of the Cardinals May 2nd. He has basically been the right-handed Barry Zito. He isn't striking anyone out, he's walking too many, and he is throwing too many pitches per inning. His stuff is not unacceptable; he has just gotten into the habit of nibbling and isn't consistently hitting his spots. The demotion will give him a chance to pitch more aggressively without the fear of getting pounded by the likes of Raul Ibanez.
The key here, believe it or not, is keeping Colome on the roster. He is more or less scrap heap, so he has no trade value and the Nats don't really have a stake in whether or not they abuse him. Joel Hanrahan, on the other hand, has some potential and trade value. He is still young, and if he can get his slider/changeup worked out (right now they are the same pitch), his fastball will not be pounded. Whether or not Hanrahan is hurting is irrelevant (though his workload last year is daunting); the Nationals do not want him to be perceived as a AAAA pitcher, especially since he cannot be demoted to AAA to work on his stuff. In the meantime, the Nats will want to work him into low leverage situations and limit his innings. Having Colome around will allow them to do that.
Odds are, Hanrahan will be back to his 2008 form sometime before next season. Martis will find his way back to the rotation soon enough, whether it's because Hanrahan gets moved, Colome get demoted, somebody gets hurt, etc. He is a baby by starting pitcher standards and the time on the farm will be better for his long term health.
I give this move a B+, actually. They had no choice bringing Olsen back, and showed some decent foresight protecting two of their better assets.
It was inevitable that Scott Olsen was going to take someone's spot. The assumption was that it should be Jesus Colome's spot, moving Stammen to the bullpen, and that made sense based on Colome's numbers. However, Stammen is just beginning to get comfortable as a starter. He is still prone to the big inning, but is striking batters out at a reasonable rate and getting to the seventh inning occasionally. Stammen will be removed from the rotation at some point, but more likely to be shut down for the season.
Martis, on the other hand, has been laboring mightily since his shutout of the Cardinals May 2nd. He has basically been the right-handed Barry Zito. He isn't striking anyone out, he's walking too many, and he is throwing too many pitches per inning. His stuff is not unacceptable; he has just gotten into the habit of nibbling and isn't consistently hitting his spots. The demotion will give him a chance to pitch more aggressively without the fear of getting pounded by the likes of Raul Ibanez.
The key here, believe it or not, is keeping Colome on the roster. He is more or less scrap heap, so he has no trade value and the Nats don't really have a stake in whether or not they abuse him. Joel Hanrahan, on the other hand, has some potential and trade value. He is still young, and if he can get his slider/changeup worked out (right now they are the same pitch), his fastball will not be pounded. Whether or not Hanrahan is hurting is irrelevant (though his workload last year is daunting); the Nationals do not want him to be perceived as a AAAA pitcher, especially since he cannot be demoted to AAA to work on his stuff. In the meantime, the Nats will want to work him into low leverage situations and limit his innings. Having Colome around will allow them to do that.
Odds are, Hanrahan will be back to his 2008 form sometime before next season. Martis will find his way back to the rotation soon enough, whether it's because Hanrahan gets moved, Colome get demoted, somebody gets hurt, etc. He is a baby by starting pitcher standards and the time on the farm will be better for his long term health.
I give this move a B+, actually. They had no choice bringing Olsen back, and showed some decent foresight protecting two of their better assets.
Moves
The Nationals front office has been busy this weekend. We should probably look at the moves one by one to try and guess what each means.
Ryan Langerhans for Mike Morse
On the surface, this looks like the Nationals are trading one of their surplus major league outfielders. Lastings Milledge had been rumored to be going to Pittsburgh, which probably would have been the preferred move, as Langerhans has more ML value. However, Langerhans has been stuck behind the glut of corner outfielders in the system, and was clearly behind Justin Maxwell in terms of age and Corey Patterson in terms of... ugh. Good for Langerhans, though. He hits well enough to fit into their ML plans, and he fits into Safeco's ginormous outfield so he will see playing time.
What does Mike Morse's arrival mean? The Nats have been running a rotation of Guzman, Gonzalez, and Hernandez through the middle infield, and Belliard is on the roster as well. Belliard isn't going anywhere until the end of the year, and if anything, he is done as a pro. Hernandez just got to the Nats and really hasn't shown much to be considered a bargaining chip. That leaves Alberto Gonzalez and Cristian Guzman, both of whom have been playing their asses off the past month. Gonzalez has been great for the Nats, though his glove has been suspect in 2009. Guzman is signed through the end of next season and is playing the best baseball of his career, despite the erratic defense and free-swinging.
Are the Nats getting into a position to leverage one of their two shortstops, using Morse as short-term insurance until Danny Espinoza is ready?
I give the move C+ for now, with a chance to upgrade, depending on how they can improve their defense up the middle before the trade deadline.
Ryan Langerhans for Mike Morse
On the surface, this looks like the Nationals are trading one of their surplus major league outfielders. Lastings Milledge had been rumored to be going to Pittsburgh, which probably would have been the preferred move, as Langerhans has more ML value. However, Langerhans has been stuck behind the glut of corner outfielders in the system, and was clearly behind Justin Maxwell in terms of age and Corey Patterson in terms of... ugh. Good for Langerhans, though. He hits well enough to fit into their ML plans, and he fits into Safeco's ginormous outfield so he will see playing time.
What does Mike Morse's arrival mean? The Nats have been running a rotation of Guzman, Gonzalez, and Hernandez through the middle infield, and Belliard is on the roster as well. Belliard isn't going anywhere until the end of the year, and if anything, he is done as a pro. Hernandez just got to the Nats and really hasn't shown much to be considered a bargaining chip. That leaves Alberto Gonzalez and Cristian Guzman, both of whom have been playing their asses off the past month. Gonzalez has been great for the Nats, though his glove has been suspect in 2009. Guzman is signed through the end of next season and is playing the best baseball of his career, despite the erratic defense and free-swinging.
Are the Nats getting into a position to leverage one of their two shortstops, using Morse as short-term insurance until Danny Espinoza is ready?
I give the move C+ for now, with a chance to upgrade, depending on how they can improve their defense up the middle before the trade deadline.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
More Poor Tactical Decisions
I know the Nats are short on quality relievers, but why MacDougal Saturday night, down two in the ninth with the bottom of the order coming up? Sunday is a day game, so rest will be shorter if they need him to go more than three outs in the heat. Yes, he has only pitched once since June 20th, but all the more reason to get him into the game Sunday, like with a chance win.
I'm not sure who calls the shots keeping the bullpen fresh, but Hanrahan's arm is dead (more on that shortly) and Tavarez is likely to be the next to start getting fatigued.
I'm not sure who calls the shots keeping the bullpen fresh, but Hanrahan's arm is dead (more on that shortly) and Tavarez is likely to be the next to start getting fatigued.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
The New Cris Guzman
I have been riding Cristian Guzman for numerous reasons this season. Mainly, because he has upper echelon talent that he displays in bursts, losing focus on occasion and playing like a replacement player. Some people still hold 2005 against him, where he played much worse than that, but for the most part, the good exceeds the bad with Guzman.
He was mentioned as a possible catalyst for some of the indifference a failure to execute, as he is one of the veteran leaders and needs to be setting the example. At the time, he wasn't getting behind ground balls and air mailing throws to first base. He was hitting fine, but come the end of May, those hits weren't dropping anymore and he was in a 7-42 funk.
Then, in the Tampa series, he was running full out to beat a ground ball to second base. He didn't, but that didn't deter him from running like a bat out of hell the next time, beating out an infield hit against the Yankees and bunting for a single against the Red Sox. That has helped him bat around .450 for the past week or so. The increase in hustle has corresponded to Alberto Gonzalez' activation, so maybe a little kick is what some of these guys need. The defense could still use some work.
He was mentioned as a possible catalyst for some of the indifference a failure to execute, as he is one of the veteran leaders and needs to be setting the example. At the time, he wasn't getting behind ground balls and air mailing throws to first base. He was hitting fine, but come the end of May, those hits weren't dropping anymore and he was in a 7-42 funk.
Then, in the Tampa series, he was running full out to beat a ground ball to second base. He didn't, but that didn't deter him from running like a bat out of hell the next time, beating out an infield hit against the Yankees and bunting for a single against the Red Sox. That has helped him bat around .450 for the past week or so. The increase in hustle has corresponded to Alberto Gonzalez' activation, so maybe a little kick is what some of these guys need. The defense could still use some work.
The 3-2 Changeup...
Whoever called the pitch should be more accountable than whoever threw it. Trevor Hoffman may not have been able to get his HOF change by Ortiz there.
Much has been made about Ortiz' diminished skills. He didn't suddenly time travel back to 2004. He is the same hitter with the same bat speed from April and May, he has just made a couple of adjustments to his pitch selection and approach. This has allowed him flip a couple into the stands at Fenway, only one of which was "well hit" (y'know, Adam Dunn-style). But the one thing that had him failing before was guessing on fastballs. Stammen needed to continue to pitch the fastball low and away, where Ortiz' slow bat would have no choice but to defend. The changeup gave him a chance to attack, which he did with his first road bomb of the season. It was arguably the best ball Ortiz has hit all season, and all the more reason to believe it was a horrible, horrible mistake.
Much has been made about Ortiz' diminished skills. He didn't suddenly time travel back to 2004. He is the same hitter with the same bat speed from April and May, he has just made a couple of adjustments to his pitch selection and approach. This has allowed him flip a couple into the stands at Fenway, only one of which was "well hit" (y'know, Adam Dunn-style). But the one thing that had him failing before was guessing on fastballs. Stammen needed to continue to pitch the fastball low and away, where Ortiz' slow bat would have no choice but to defend. The changeup gave him a chance to attack, which he did with his first road bomb of the season. It was arguably the best ball Ortiz has hit all season, and all the more reason to believe it was a horrible, horrible mistake.
Pawtucket Nationals
In 2004, when DC was selected to received the nomadic Expos, I was ecstatic. Surprised also, as I thought that Portland would offer a more loyal fan base and Las Vegas was a completely untapped market. However, MLB spotted the free ATM that is the Federal Government and greed won in a landslide. It is hard to blame MLB, as the integrity bar in baseball is set very low. DC would also be the easiest place to obtain a free stadium. A little seedy, but I wasn't an O's fan and wasn't going to pretend to be one.
Everybody ignored the fact that major league baseball failed in DC twice. The signs were there in 2004 that the city had changed. Face it, this is a an Orioles and Red Sox town... if NESN was carried on the basic cable tier, they would outdraw the Nats on MASN for viewers. It foolish to think that thirty to sixty thousand Bostonians decided to try to make a weeknight series against the worst team in the league nine hours away in DC. Most of these tickets are sold to local Red Sox fans, those filthy annoying donkeys filling up Buffalo Billiards on Friday night.
The hardcore Nationals fans have done well at repelling the surge, but the front office has gone out of their way to create as much of a home field environment for the Red Sox as possible. So that begs the question- would the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox be able to outdraw the Nats in DC? My initial reaction would be no way, but there have been way too many nights that Nats park has more resembled a Washington Freedom game. The PawSox regularly draw eight to twelve thousand... which isn't bad considering McCoy only seats about ten.
The problem is that MLB overestimated the demand for baseball in DC, just as they did in Tampa (Miami is another story). There is a solid TV market, but most people off the street (myself included) are Red Sox, Yankees, or Orioles fans. To create a large fan base here would be a daunting task, and so far neither the city nor the owners have been up to the task. There have been arguments that the fans will come once the team starts winning, but that hasn't played out in Tampa. While Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and even Baltimore have been beaten down by decades of losing, the Nats don't even seem to have gotten through the "New Car Smell" phase before the malaise set in.
The question for us DC residents is had Portland won the Expos sweepstakes and the consolation prize was and Independent or International League team. Would you have supported the team? Would affiliation have mattered? Just something to think about as the Nats are forced to build from the ground up. More than likely, though, MLB will assign the Nats a similar fate as the Senators.
Everybody ignored the fact that major league baseball failed in DC twice. The signs were there in 2004 that the city had changed. Face it, this is a an Orioles and Red Sox town... if NESN was carried on the basic cable tier, they would outdraw the Nats on MASN for viewers. It foolish to think that thirty to sixty thousand Bostonians decided to try to make a weeknight series against the worst team in the league nine hours away in DC. Most of these tickets are sold to local Red Sox fans, those filthy annoying donkeys filling up Buffalo Billiards on Friday night.
The hardcore Nationals fans have done well at repelling the surge, but the front office has gone out of their way to create as much of a home field environment for the Red Sox as possible. So that begs the question- would the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox be able to outdraw the Nats in DC? My initial reaction would be no way, but there have been way too many nights that Nats park has more resembled a Washington Freedom game. The PawSox regularly draw eight to twelve thousand... which isn't bad considering McCoy only seats about ten.
The problem is that MLB overestimated the demand for baseball in DC, just as they did in Tampa (Miami is another story). There is a solid TV market, but most people off the street (myself included) are Red Sox, Yankees, or Orioles fans. To create a large fan base here would be a daunting task, and so far neither the city nor the owners have been up to the task. There have been arguments that the fans will come once the team starts winning, but that hasn't played out in Tampa. While Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and even Baltimore have been beaten down by decades of losing, the Nats don't even seem to have gotten through the "New Car Smell" phase before the malaise set in.
The question for us DC residents is had Portland won the Expos sweepstakes and the consolation prize was and Independent or International League team. Would you have supported the team? Would affiliation have mattered? Just something to think about as the Nats are forced to build from the ground up. More than likely, though, MLB will assign the Nats a similar fate as the Senators.
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