Conference Updates: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big South

America East

Summary: Calling this one well thus far.  New Hampshire, Vermont, and Albany are clearly the 3 best teams, with an ocean down to the rest of the conference.  Maine is the weakest sister by a mile right now.

What I got wrong:  Hartford owns a win over Boston College, but has nothing else to lean on.  UMBC has not beaten anyone of note, and only recently even played anyone near the Top 100, but looks like an upper half team.

Prognosis: New Hampshire still looks to be the 16 seed breaking out of here.  Albany owns the best win (Penn St) and UNH was absolutely massacred by a fiery WVU team, but still look to be the most consistent team.  Vermont has played the best schedule and could have had a nice resume booster over Houston but let it slip away.

Preseason	Realtime
New Hampshire	New Hampshire
Vermont	Vermont
Albany	Albany
Hartford	UMBC
Umass-Lowell	Stony Brook
Stony Brook	Umass-Lowell
UMBC	Hartford
Binghamton	Binghamton
Maine	Maine

Atlantic Sun

Summary: Feeling like I am 75% here as well. Florida Gulf Coast is playing like a single digit seed, but will likely have their numbers depressed by a dreadful conference.

What I got wrong:  North Florida is a fluky last second shot away from having zero D-1 wins.  Kennesaw State is exhibiting some of the same defensive tendencies that got Al Skinner pushed out of BC and don’t look anywhere ready to contend.  NJIT on the other hand has turned the screws on a couple Big Ten teams and probably will not be taken so lightly going forward.

Prognosis: FGCU is going to dominate this conference.  They do not have a bad loss and hold a win over fellow bracket buster Arlington.  Jacksonville and Lipscomb are strong, but the best win between the two of the came against a team that just had to remove its coach for assaulting his players.

SUN	Preseason	Realtime
1	Florida Gulf Coast	Florida Gulf Coast
2	North Florida	Jacksonville
3	Jacksonville	Lipscomb
4	Lipscomb	NJIT
5	Kennesaw State	North Florida
6	Stetson	Kennesaw State
7	NJIT	Stetson
8	USC Upstate	USC Upstate

Big South

Summary: Liberty isn’t going to win this conference without Caleb Homesley.  The guy is a ninja.  That puts Winthrop back in the driver’s seat and UNC Asheville running shotgun…. Longwood and Presbyterian are not coming along for this ride.

What I got wrong: Gardner Webb looks feisty and could give teams fits.

Prognosis: Interesting two-horse race, where Winthrop plays the role of surgeon, while Asheville is a defensive nightmare.  I like the team with the tourney pedigree to take the title, but UNCA played a fair schedule and nearly stole one against the Buckeyes.  If it can work for Huggy Bear in Morgantown, it can easily disrupt the slop in the Big South.  Gardner Webb’s win over Nebraska looks pretty sweet right about now as well.  My wife was also amazed that Radford had D-1 basketball… she was even more impressed when she found out they even made the tournament a couple times… not this year though.

BS	Preseason	Realtime
1	Liberty	Winthrop
2	Winthrop	UNC Asheville
3	UNC Asheville	Gardner Webb
4	Charleston Southern	Liberty
5	Campbell	Charleston Southern
6	High Point	Campbell
7	Radford	High Point
8	Gardner Webb	Radford
9	Longwood	Longwood
10	Presbyterian	Presbyterian

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December 6 Poll

Moving out: Michigan State, Iowa State, Dayton, Monmouth, Arizona

1. Villanova
2. Duke
3. UCLA
4. Kentucky
5. Louisville
6. Gonzaga
7. Wisconsin
8. Indiana
9. Kansas
10. North Carolina
11. Baylor
12. Creighton
13. West Virginia
14. Virginia
15. Butler
16. Purdue
17. Saint Mary’s, CA
18. Xavier
19. South Carolina
20. Wichita State
21. Cincinnati
22. Miami, FL
23. Oregon
24. UNC Wilmington
25. Texas Christian

Moving in: Baylor, Butler, South Carolina, UNCW, TCU

How are they out: The other USC, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida, Middle Tennessee State

People take polls so god damn personally that it is a futile exercise I almost prefer not to do.  I try not to let head to head results dictate "what I actually think" and "who I perceive to be best."  Anything can happen in 40 minutes, and it is nuts to think that just because Team X beat Team Y, particularly on their home floor, that result defines those two teams.

That said, I gave UCLA the juice bump because that was one of the most complete games you will, and may have seen, like ever.  Indian gets the nudge over UNC, despite the game taking place in Bloomington, though that is a tenuous position given the injuries.  UVA drops behind WVU.  Baylor continues to take on everyone and win.

I went with UNCW over MTSU because I think their style will equate to more wins over better competition.  I expect the Seahawks to dump a few CAA game to inferior competition when the shots do not fall, while the Raiders methodically dismember Conference USA.  Come tourney time, though, I think UNCW has a better chance to run through to an autobid, while MTSU is stuck fighting ODU, UAB, Marshall, and Charlotte.

No excuses for the teams moving out of the polls.  They have all lost winnable games and at times looked disorganized enough to question their talent level, question being the operative word, not disprove.

Notre Dame and Southern Cal... well, what can I say.  I honestly have yet to see USC play yet, and the Irish swept the Legends in NY in unconvincing fashion.

The ACC/BigTen Challenge as a Bracket Barometer

With so many viable bracket and bubble contender, the ACC/BigTen Challenge provides a slightly closed system with fair matchups to see how these strengths stack up.  While anyone can have an off night on the floor, 14 contests are a decent sample size to at least feel how these teams stack up.  Feel free to reference back to the charts.  Bracket.  BCS.  First outs.

Purdue (projected 3) at Louisville (2); Result: Louisville wins 71-64, confirmed.  Louisville jumped out early, never looked back. 

Rutgers (OUT) at Miami (5); Result: Miami wins 73-61, confirmed.  Rutgers was undefeated head to south Florida, but this game stayed closer longer that I had anticipated. 

Nebraska (BUBBLE POOL) at Clemson (BUBBLE POOL); Result: Clemson wins 60-58, confirmed?  Both these teams have a lot to prove to get back into the discussion, so it makes sense this was a battle to the end.  Clemson steals a potential Top 50 win.

Virginia Tech (10) at Michigan (11); Result: Tech wins 73-70, confirmed.  I really didn’t think the Hokies could pull this one out on the road, especially against Michigan’s tight defense.  Win will be big in March.

North Carolina (3) at Indiana (2); Result: Indiana wins 76-63, confirmed.  Wow, Indiana did not f-around after that loss at Fort Wayne.  A road loss doesn’t mean too much for UNC, but a big bounce back win for the Hoosiers keeps them on the 2 line for while.

Ohio State (SECOND FIVE) at Virginia (1); Result: Virginia wins 63-61, disputed?  The Cavs played like a bag of wet hair, taking poor shots all game, and still pulled this out.  The Buckeyes booted so many chances to put the dagger in.  Either way, I think one of these teams is probably no quite rated correctly… whether UVA gets bumped to a two (not elite) or Ohio State turns the screws on Michigan, MSU, Maryland, and Iowa.

Pittsburgh (FIRST FIVE) at Maryland (8); Result: Pittsburgh wins 73-59, disputed.  Ooof.  I could see this type of score line for a road game, but the Panthers are expected to be a year away adjusting schemes and bringing in “different” talent.  This result flexes the depth of the ACC.

Georgia Tech (OUT) at Penn State (OUT); Result: Penn State wins 67-60, confirmed.  PSU wins at home, and the line is a wash.  Not much to discern here, other than both are a game closer to the NIT.

Syracuse (SECOND FIVE) at Wisconsin (2); Result: Wisconsin wins 77-60, confirmed.  Most people will keep Syracuse in their polls and brackets, and I don’t have much reason to hold them out other than this looks to be a rebuild season as opposed to a reload, despite the early results.  The 2-3 zone couldn’t hold the drive-kick-bomb by Hayes/Koenig, but for the most part, that should allow the Orange to split in conference and get on the bubble.

NC State (FIRST FIVE) at Illinois (OUT); Result: Illinois wins 88-74, disputed.  I will not fault a team for losing on the road, but NC State was handled pretty well by a team that was eventually run over by Florida State.  The Pack rotation is only 6 deep, which will get them in trouble against fast and physical opponents.

Iowa (9) at Notre Dame (7); Result: Notre Dame wins 92-78, confirmed.  I would like to think this is my crowning achievement.  My original outline had Iowa #4 in the Big 10 and Notre Dame #7 in the ACC.  After exhaustively balancing the equation, they both fell to #6, and with the strength of the ACC superior, Notre Dame landed 9 spots ahead on the S-curve.  Vindicated.

Michigan State (6) at Duke (1): Result: Duke wins 77-69, confirmed.  Coach K has revealed Duke has no depth.  Jones and Kennard have each dropped a complete game 3 times this year… before December.  That’s a lot of unnecessary miles against Penn State and URI.  MSU is wallowing in preseason schedule hell, with what looks to be 4 quality losses (assuming Arizona and Baylor hold on) and one near blown shot against the Shockers.  The December slate is pretty sloppy and if they lose any of these, they will slide in the seedings. MSU and Pitt have taken an approach of not forcing turnovers.  Very Odd.

Minnesota (OUT) at Florida State (8); Result: Florida State wins 75-67, confirmed.  Little Pitino has the Gophers with solid wins over Arlington and Arkansas, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that they back-doored a cover.  This was a 17-point game with 5 to play, so I’ll say things regress to the mean.

Wake Forest (OUT) at Northwestern (FIRST FIVE); Result: Northwestern wins 65-58, confirmed.  The Deacs are competitive early and NW looks to be in the same position every year, being good enough to not finish last, but never getting over the hump.

Final score: 10 matchups confirmed analysis, 2 matchups are inconclusive, and 2 matchups disputed the analysis.  I’ll take those percentages any day for a rough run it Bracketology after being out of the game five years.