Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Apologies to:

The first 5 out:
North Carolina State
Oklahoma State

The next 5 out
Virginia Commonwealth
Texas Tech
Saint Bonaventure
Ohio State
Rough year for the MWC and MVC.  I knew that the MVC lacked depth behind Wichita State, but Northern Iowa again will have to play their way into the main field, barring a spectacular conference season (like 16-2) or a big surge from the bottom of the conference to drive up their strength of schedule.

Giving the regular season title and first round bye to Nevada, San Diego State will play their way in as well.  Steve Fisher finds a way to win games, but this looks to be a slightly down year.  The conference second tier schools just aren't bringing enough clout to even get to the final 24, which makes it difficult to objectively compare the Aztecs outside head to head.

I gave Michigan the nod over Ohio State and Northwestern.  They will finish .500 in league play, but will get the nod in all the metrics (Pomeroy, Sagarin, RPI).  I had to do some deep digging, and really feel any of the top 3 teams on the first 5 out list have earned it more, but I'll ignore week 1 results and give Georgetown the nod for the other slot.

I also just have no desire to put Syracuse in until they prove they aren't going to mail in the first four months again, but they could end up clowning me again.

Seeding the bracket tonight.

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