Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Final Results for Conference Predictions

Back in November, breakdowns and prediction tables were offered for each of the 32 conferences.  At the end of December, we covered what was learned and updated those forecasts.  Now that the season is over, it’s time to see how we did!

Each conference will be scored individually based on 3 sets criteria.  I tried to keep the formula simple to keep from confusing Excel too much.  The first set is how the preseason picks faired against the final results.  10 points awarded for getting the standing position correct, 5 point for missing by 1 position, 2 points for missing by 2 positions, and -5 for anything else.  Similar scoring is done on the midseason, or Realtime, updates, reduced to 5, 3, 1, and -5.  Finally, 5 bonus points are awarded for every block of 3 consecutive correct picks, 10 points for a block of 5, and 20 points for a block of 8.

MVC Preseason Realtime Final P-PTS R-PTS Total
1 Wichita State Wichita State Wichita State 10 5 15
2 Northern Iowa Illinois State Illinois State 2 5 7
3 Southern Illinois Loyola Southern Illinois 10 -5 5
4 Illinois State Evansville Northern Iowa 2 1 3
5 Missouri State Missouri State Loyola -5 1 -4
6 Evansville Northern Iowa Missouri State 5 3 8
7 Indiana State Southern Illinois Bradley 5 -5 0
8 Bradley Indiana State Evansville 2 -5 -3
9 Drake Drake Drake 10 5 15
10 Loyola Bradley Indiana State -5 1 -4
Bonus 0 42

Wichita State and Drake were the only two teams I nailed.  Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa were all over the place, but ended up both back up near the top of the table (which more illustrates how weak the MVC was this year.  I had a big preseason whiff on Loyola, and then they fizzled down the stretch.  After the Sycamores upset Butler, they hit the wall hard.  No bonus points here.

I suspect that there will be one or two conferences that go into triple digits, and one or two that fall below 20.  Most will be right around 50.


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