Sunday, March 12, 2017

Top 4 scoring and analysis

5 points for a hit, 2 points for 1 line miss, -1 for 2 line miss, -4 for 3 line or more miss, -5 for missing the field

1 SEEDS: 20 points
ME: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina
FIELD: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina

Analysis: Nailed it, lets move on.

2 SEEDS: 14 points
ME: Oregon, Kentucky, Duke, Florida State
FIELD: Arizona, Kentucky, Duke, Louisville

Analysis: I guess the 3 point victory yesterday outweighed the 27 point loss (that was not that close) earlier in the season.  No matter how you slice it, Oregon is superior.  My only rationalization is that the Cats had to run deeper into the season without Trier than Oregon did without Brooks.  Cardinals were a dead heat with the Seminoles the whole second half, but nose them out in most metrics (RPI, KenPom, Sagarin).  I had FSU way ahead in quality of win.  Neither team was good away from home.

3 SEEDS: 11 points
ME: West Virginia, Arizona, Baylor, Louisville
FIELD: Oregon, Baylor, Florida State, UCLA

Analysis: Not sure what to make of Baylor anymore. End of season slump makes hot, fortuitous Nov/Dec seem like ancient history.  Big 12 is a beast, but which team give coaches nightmares: Baylor or WVU?  Mountaineers could never live up to their advanced metrics, but are still more than capable of making a deep run.

4 SEEDS: 11 points
ME: UCLA, Purdue, Florida, Southern Methodist
FIELD: Purdue, Florida, West Virginia, Butler

Analysis: Committee missed big here, but part of it is justifiable. AAC is not a deep conference and should not be feeling their conference championship game participants are locked into the field, let alone their line.  I think this is a case where they saw 2 teams that split their games, but ignored the actual results (SMU dominated 2 and nearly stole the 3rd.  I bumped Butler to the 5 assuming SMU’s Sunday result would count.  It did not.  Butler did earn their keep here.

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