Sunday, March 5, 2017

Weekend Bracket Analysis

So I was just pondering... what is the fewest road/neutral wins a team has had to claim an at-large bid.  Right now Syracuse is sitting at 2, facing Miami in the first round of the ACC tournament.  I just don't see this happening.  I also see a lot of middle class fodder for that last spot, so I am going out on a limb and saying College of Charleston wins tomorrow in a tight, high scoring game, and UNCW clings to that 68th spot.

So without further adieu

Not really there, but we will run them through the credits:
Illinois, Clemson, California, Georgia

Uh, Cal, like what the fuck.  In 2 do-or-die games you scored a TOTAL of 90 points?  A win over Oregon State isn't going to secure a bid, and a do-over against Utah may only get you back into the discussion.  Terrible week for the Bears.

The "Next Four Out":
Utah, Houston, BYU, Kansas State
BYU can get fair consideration with a split, but lose to the Gaels and it's NIT all the way.  Utah moves up by virtue of Cal falling flat.  Houston likely need to win the AAC to get in, and KSU probably gets in outright with a win over Baylor.

First Four Out:
Syracuse, Xavier, Monmouth, Iowa
Syracuse is covered above.  They just should not get in based on the fact they avoid road games.  Plus, they lost to BC.  Xavier just got screwed by the schedule, as playing DePaul twice in a row is a total lose-lose scenario.  They need a good outing against Butler.  Monmouth's status will slide as next week shakes out.  It's very unlikely they will receive serious consideration a week, but 2006 Air Force stole a 13 seed... the committee owes them for a dick job last year.  Iowa is a fascinating team, but just doesn't have the cards right now.  2 more wins will get them there.

Last Four In:
Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, UNC Wilmington
Wake Forest and Seton Hall get dynamic big men into the dance for an entertaining showdown to enter the West region, while URI and UNCW square off a the only two mid-majors outside ISU really being considered.

Like, Seriously, Don't lose in the first round of your conference tourney:
Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Providence, USC
In a "normal year" I don't think any of these four teams are getting a sniff.  But double digit loss teams are en vogue after Syracuse's run last year.  USC has awful computer numbers, Providence is a total house of cards that can be knocked down at any time, and Vandy WILL HAVE FIFTEEN LOSSES.  Honestly, if there was anyone in the MWC that looked spicy to take down Nevada, I'd move them into the at-large pool... don't dive into this one- it is pretty shallow.

No movement on the 1 seeds, and even if Gonzaga fails to win the WCC, they are still going to be good for the 1 out West.  Two seeds get a shake-up, with Kentucky leaping Florida, Baylor jumping into the mix, and Duke edging out Purdue and UCLA for the final spot.  Butler was fun while it lasted as a 2.


No comments:

Post a Comment