Monday, January 22, 2018

22 January Bracket

Man, this turned into a total goat screw.

My guess is that somebody else in the Big 10 gets hot.  Very odd year, where they have so little depth that it has propped Ohio State into this perceived juggernaut.  They are not, but nobody can stop them right now.

New Mexico State edges out Western Kentucky for the final at large bid.  I had to re arrange my play-in games to account for Buffalo taking the MAC autobid from Ball State (Buffs are right on the cusp of an at-large themselves) and ETSU snatching the SoCon bid at Furman (Bucs are also in the at large mix).  Buffalo is squarely on the 11 line, so dropped that other game back ass a 12/12.  Providence noses out Baylor.

The margin between the 1 and 2 seeds continues to grow.  There is a great deal of volatility as the major conferences' teams become less dependent on NCSOS and more dependent on "what have you done for me lately.  This may need to be tweaked, so we don't see a team like Seton Hall bouncing from 4 to 10 seed based on who the beat or lost to any given week.

I... was not aware St. Mary's RPI was so low.  I watch the games, see they are clearly a top 25 team, but holy shit the resume is the Gonzaga upset and New Mexico State.  Kansas State is also a team of circumstance right now... I had them way out just a week ago, yet 2 home wins (good wins) puts them in a safe place.

The PAC 12 has done nothing to make me believe they are getting a 4th team in, and if the FBI hammer were to fall... uh, yeah, this could be a 1 bid league (it won't).  The drop off from USC to UCLA is significant, and nobody else is even close.

1 seeds: Villanova, Purdue, Duke, Virginia
Hanging on the Bubble: Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, SMU, Marquette
Last 5 in: Houston, Providence, Texas, Boise State, New Mexico State
First 5 out: Western Kentucky, Maryland, Baylor, Notre Dame, BYU
Some others to consider: Syracuse, Louisiana Lafayette, Virginia Tech, UCLA, Nebraska

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