8 JAN Bracket

I try not to lay too hard on individual performances week to week, but that was one of the tougher weeks to gauge in recent memory.  I don't like slipping Duke and MSU off the 1 line because they are extremely talented and will likely roll into March on fire.  I certainly don't like having Texas Tech and Purdue storming out of nowhere and expecting them to hold serve for more than a week.  It's more the quality of opponent that Izzo and crew lined up for December, which can be described as none other than underwhelming.  They are 3-1 in the Big 10, and given their joke of a schedule and injuries at Maryland, will only be tested at home against Purdue and maybe at Minnesota if they get their shit together. I love Duke's schedule on the other hand. They brought in some decent mid-majors (beat them), owned Portland, but have crashed on the road in conference.  It is a young team, and the ACC road is not getting easier, Pitt aside. Chapel Hill, Clemson, Blacksburg, and even Coral Gables remain on the schedule, with a pit stop in MSG to play a desperate St. John's team.  They may even crash out of a tough home game against the Heels, Cavs, or Irish. Bottom line, their road back is much less certain, but given the quality, should stumble beyond the 3 line.

Ohio State benefits the most, jumping up to the 5 line, which is 2-3 seeds high, but the numbers don't lie.  The lack of NC road games will sting a little, but right now they are very much safe, whereas last week they were looking more flukey than legit.  Florida also seems to be righting the ship after a rough patch.  They look more like 5 seed than OSU, but that FSU/Loyola twin killing at home bruised the profile.

I saw some solid shade at the situation in the PAC 12, when asked about Colorado's at large chances, and the response was to join the Big 12.  Here is the deal.  The PAC 12 has 4 major programs in the southwest.  They have 2 academic first schools in desperate need of athletic and budget reform in the Bay Area.  Oregon is corporate beast, but outside of that, these are glorified mid-major basketball programs.  The Big 4 know they don't have to tax themselves too hard at this point... the bottom half of this conference is struggling to make the NIT.  It doesn't help that a lot of their natural non-conference Buy games in the Big Sky, Big West, WAC have become worthless.  There are no Southern, MVC, MAAC, Horizon caliber teams.  The Summit is nice, but these guys need more MWC games.  Right now, they are lucky to have 4 in.

St. Bonaventure is going to be in a tough spot.  On one hand, they hold 2 Power 5 Top 50 road wins against fellow Bubble dwellers Syracuse and Maryland.  They played TCU tight.  But they are 1-2 in the A-10 facing the "middle" of the conference... teams they should not be losing to.  Right now they are in by virtue of the autobid, as they are the most talented team in a shallow pool.  But another slip and the A-10 is in C-USA territory.