Sunday, February 4, 2018

4 FEB Bracket

Villanova remains the number 1 overall, holding a small margin over Virginia.  There is an ocean to Purdue, and another ocean to get down to Xavier and Duke, rounding out the top 5.  Auburn and Cinci keep winning, and Clemson maintains solid numbers.

Play-in lines will remain both on the 12 for now, but this will shift as one-bid teams slip in the rankings.

Nobody in the Big 12 has really taken charge, leaving a mess of differently-abled teams.  TCU looks done without Fisher, and Texas will go as far as bad basketball will take them.  K-State fell from lock to out, having been swept by KU and WVU, and the TCU/Baylor wins have lost their numbers luster.

The middle of the SEC is equally frustrating, as Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Georgia have spent the last 3 weeks bouncing between 35 and 60, and now LSU, USC and MSU want to enter the mix... hell, even Vandy is trying to play ball.

Teams hanging on for dear life: Houston, Alabama, Providence, Boise State, Arkansas.
This is actually better for the first 4 on this list, as they typically been in the last 5 in category.  Consistent winning should be rewarded.  Arkansas should right the ship with 5 winnable games before a difficult close.

Last Five In: Syracuse, UCLA, Western Kentucky, Washington, Marquette.
The numbers have Marquette out as of today, but this is their spot to hang onto as they just were put through the gauntlet, still have a road test in Newark before closing with 2 St. John's, 2 Creighton w/o Kramliej, Georgetown, and DePaul.  5-2 seems likely.  Washington has the worst numbers of anyone I have put into the bracket, but their big wins give them the nod over NC State for now.  UCLA and ASU are basically playing a bracket buster game this week.  Syracuse comes and goes, will probably be gone after Louisville nukes their offense.  WKU has the best chance of hanging out here, but the committee won't be thrilled about a multibid C-USA... they need to keep winning and remain ahead of ODU.

First Five Out: Kansas State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Baylor, NC State.
I'm pretty sure MD is finished, but they could find another gear... and let's be honest- making the Big 10 championship game is not a stretch if they can hold on to the 4th or 5th spot. Just gotta catch Purdue napping.  KSU is a bracketology nightmare... a week ago during their run the checked in a 21.  WTF?  Nobody is confusing KSU as a top 5 seed.  This week? 69... I'm reading it more like 50ish... VA Tech needs more than a couple road wins over collapsing ND and BC.  They are closer that NC State mathematically, but I think 4 out of 5 dentists would ride the hot hand.  Baylor is more likely finishing 9th in the conference over getting a 9 seed.  Just erratic play all around.

Next Five Out: Notre Dame, Nebraska, Southern Methodist, St. Bonaventure, Penn State
Temple was out to a hot start with the RPI to back it up, then started the AAC 0-4... now they are sneaking back, but probably aren't getting a sniff at more than 11 losses. SMU and ND have been done in by injuries.  The Bonnies are dangerous and will very likely win out the regular season and find there way in, but as it stands now, they are prone to dropping a sub-100 road game and being NIT bound. Penn State and Nebraska are just yuck and nobody wants to watch them.  Give me Yante instead.

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