Bubble Watch- Arizona State

Let’s take a look at Arizona State’s “Body of Work”.  The media blew their wad early, projecting the Sun Devils to be a 1 seed, despite very little evidence that their performance was sustainable.  They opened with one true road game (Kansas), three neutral site games (Kansas State, Xavier, Saint John’s, and eight home games, highlighted by perennial MWC contender San Diego State, Big West frontrunner UC Irvine, improving WCC squads San Francisco and Pacific, and and upper half SEC team from last season in Vanderbilt. Idaho State, Northern Arizona, and Longwood were empty calories.

Overall, this was a pretty damn good schedule.  To go 12-0 against it is more than impressive, as at the time, KSU was also considered an upset.  But al the metrics still pointed to the fact that ASU had performed well, but still ranked in the low 20’s.  The likeliness of them shooting 45% from 3 for the season was unlikely, and their defense wasn’t really preventing points.

The Pac-12 League schedule is a different story.  With unbalanced schedules, everyone can claim foul that they got a raw deal.  So what about their schedule stands out?

Home-and-Home against Arizona (Loss/Loss)- This is a missed opportunity as the Wildcats were the only true Q1 win they could have gotten at home.

Road games at altitude (Loss/Win)- The second toughest component of the Pac-12 schedule, outside of Tucson, is the double to Utah and Colorado.  The elevation will either get you up front, or the one day recovery time will not be enough for the second game.  ASU got a two day break on their trip and recovered to steal one from Utah.  This was arguably the last “great” thing they did this season.

Road games at Oregon/OSU (Loss/Loss)- Hard places to win, but both these teams kind of stink this year. OSU is back to a solid brand with Tres running the show, but ASU needed one of these to prove the still had “it”.

Road games at USC/UCLA (-/-)- ASU managed to avoid the other two best teams in the conference in their gym.

Home games vs USC/UCLA (Win/Win)- Literally the ONLY reason this is a discussion.

Road games at UW/WSU (Loss/Win)- Not the worst outcome, but they struggled to put away a terrible WAZZU.

What should have been absolutely FREE: Home-and-Home vs Stanford/Cal, Home against Utah/Colorado/Oregon/OSU, neutral site against Colorado.  A great team goes 9-0 here. A good team goes 8-1, and middling fringe bubble team maybe goes 7-2 or so.  The Sun Devils went 4-5 against dreck, with only 4 of those games on the road.

The Sun Devils do not have the injury crutch to fall back on to explain their lackluster performance.  They finished 1-5 with the win against Cal at home, which probably hurts their RPI more than helps it.

Bottom line, this is no longer a team capable of winning an NCAA tournament game.

2017-2018 Major Conference predictions

I have been a little delinquent starting the previews and preseason bracket.  The FBI sting took some of the wind out of my sails.  I could write for days on that particular topic, but that has nothing to do with the bracket.  I do feel that it would be ignorant not to take the investigation into consideration, as well as other legal implications, so I highlighted teams that I felt were in limbo for this season... not that the NCAA sanctions or postseason bans are imminent or likely (though that is a possibility) but this will affect the longterm mental health of the program.  Maybe not so much the players on the court, but everything that goes into the sausage (recruiting, coaches, practice, travel, media, etc) are going to change for those teams in the immediate future.

Notes:
The PAC12 is a disaster. Arizona, USC, and UCLA looked to be frontrunners, but who knows where the investigation leads, and how China expedites their legal process, which I can only imagine to be like Brokedown Palace.  Cal is bankrupt, Oregon is embroiled in its moral and ethical quandries, and every school north of the 44 degree parallel sucks.  Arizona has the depth to prevail, but my guess is that the investigation breaks Miller before the postseason.  If so, the PAC12 is wide open.

ACC is messy, but the teams currently involved were outside the "lock" status.  Miami and Louisville had tourney potential, but will likely be just impacted enough to tumble to the middle of the ACC standings, with self sanctioning a bargaining chip. Not quite as high on Duke's likely outcome versus the "upside" outcome.  Notre Dame is flying under the radar despite being sound, deep, and experienced.  They have a better shot at an ACC title, while Duke could go all the way if they peak at the right time.

The state of Alabama shot itself in the foot big time.  Auburn looked close to a contender last year, while Alabama pulled a few upsets to remain in the selection discussion until the SEC tourney.  Both are already in the midst of damage control, and I can't see Pearl lasting through Christmas.  Florida and Kentucky are the class of a flat conference again.  Media is high on Missouri because of the Porter effect, but both Fultz and Simmons played for the draft, not necessarily for the postseason.  I can see the Tigers getting off to a fast start and fizzling once NBA scout confirm his draft status. 

The Shockers are jumping to the AAC, which will put a strain on their typical road dominance.  Cinci didn't lose enough to warrant overlooking (SMU did) so I think that chip on their shoulder will be enough to win the league while everyone prematurely puts WSU in the Final Four.  UConn could be the wild card again.

Venue issues will change the fortunes of both Villanova and DePaul.  While the Wildcats are basically playing neutral or road all season, DePaul finally has new digs of their own near campus.  The edge goes to Xavier and Seton Hall to play up that advantage, while DePaul could finally be trending out of the cellar.

Oklahoma State should plummet back to early, while the Dixon effect has taken root at TCU.  Kansas hopefully exhibits a less ambiguous standard toward moral turpitude on the roster.  Over the years, Self has never worn the same stink of other embattled coaches.  I doubt there is any dirt there, but come on, show some discipline.

I have nothing to say about the Big Ten, other than they were very overrated in the seedings last year, and the overall talent seems to have slipped, though little Pitino has a sleeping giant.

Mike Rhodes could keep VCU's stream open, but the Rams have been good for 13 years now.  Typically the bubble bursts on mid-majors and someone has to rebuild from scratch, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.  Ironically, the man who broke their drought, Anthony Grant, will be presiding over continuity at Dayton.  The Bonnies and Rams have the best 5's in the conference, and without much competition, they won't need the depth to win.

Update: PAC 12

PAC-12

Summary: Considering how the first couple months of the season unfolded, I would not be against giving Tres Tinkle the Peyton Manning treatment and nominating him for Conference Player of the Year.  I do not think any team has underachieved to a greater degree this year.  In a sloppy PAC-12, they should have finished at least 8^th.  I am glad that I stuck by my guns on Oregon.  They righted the ship quickly once Dillon Brooks returned.  Dana Altman has done a great job of rotating his role players and getting the most out of every player minute.  UCLA’s sweep at altitude shows how efficient their machine is (or possibly how large the delta is between the Top 3 and next 3.  I wrote off Arizona early, but those losses look pretty good right now.  Their Euro connection is simply not defendable by any standard scheme.  I will be interesting how they handle Oregon’s press.  USC played a porous non-conference schedule, but beat all-comers, so .500 in league play gets them in.  The question is whether Colorado and/or Utah can distinguish themselves from the pack.  The Buffalos hit the wall hard to start league but they also played 4 of the Top 5 teams.  Not an excuse, but just a barometer of what to expect when the Washingtons, OSU come up on the schedule.  A home upset of Oregon would be huge. 

What I got wrong: California has ridden a suffocating defense to decent computer numbers.  They just do not have the talent level to back up the results.  But in a top-heavy conference in which they only have to play UCLA and USC once, 10-8 may earn them a bid.

Prognosis: I think (and many people agree) this is it for Lorenzo Romar.  6 straight years with NBA caliber talent and they have nothing to show for it.  The Huskies need to find another direction as Fultz bolts.  I’d like to keep my preseason Top 3 intact, but that is shear stubbornness.  UCLA has distinguished itself as a 1 seed (vulnerable, yes) and Arizona/Oregon gotta dig it out for second fiddle.  It is very possible that there is only one other bid to be had here, and the pecking order is USC, Utah, Cal, and Colorado.  Lots can happen in February.  I am extremely happy that UW, Stanford, ASU, and WSU played exactly to form, and likely will continue to do so.

P12	Preseason	Realtime
1	Oregon	UCLA
2	Arizona	Oregon
3	UCLA	Arizona
4	Utah	USC
5	USC	Utah
6	Colorado	California
7	Oregon State	Colorado
8	Washington	Washington
9	California	Stanford
10	Stanford	Arizona State
11	Arizona State	Washington State
12	Washington State	Oregon State

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2017 Predictions: The BCS teams

Despite my bias toward the Big East, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and powers in the Missouri Valley and West Coast, I feel that it would be ignorant to state that these conferences are in the same class as the 5 BCS Conferences.  The Big East clearly has the talent to compete with any of these affiliations, and top to bottom, the A-10, MWC, and AAC have the horses to run with the PAC-12 and SEC this year.  It really comes down to resources, exposure, and the “self-licking ice cream cone.”

The resource gradient does not drive basketball as much as football, but at the end of the day, even your middling BCS program (say, Washington?) is spending so much more per student athlete.  It makes everything easier, from recruiting, training, and actually going to and playing the games.  Richmond and Saint Bonaventure just are not going to have those selling points.

Exposure has changed dramatically the last 15 years.  Back in the days of yore, dish was the only way to get out of region games, let alone mid-major and small conference games.  Now I can choose from any of about 6 to 20 games on any evening or weekend through FiOS (no, I am not trying to sell their service… it sucks, but is still better than cable).  This at least gives casual fans the opportunity to observe that Old Dominion may be legit.  However, when CBS advertises its game of the week, they never try to dig outside the BCS sandbox.  The Big East makes it difficult to ignore, but you are more likely going to be pimped Tennessee/Georgia or Oklahoma State/Oklahoma.

These first two discriminators do not necessarily give a school an advantage reaching the tournament through conference affiliation.  But the self-licking ice cream will do exactly that, giving mediocre teams more credit for getting their asses handed to them through mandatory conference games than rewarding excellence winning the games you should win.  I think the SEC is a prime example.  Outside Kentucky, there isn’t a true dominating national contender.  It is really them, 9 bubble teams, and 4 doormats.  Pretty much all 9 of those teams are going to log 17-22 wins of varying caliber.  The advantage is that they not only get the strength of schedule bump from playing Kentucky, but also all of their other conference opponents who have played Kentucky, even the doormats. 

So once upon a time, the commissioners in several of the “mid-major” conferences realized that they were never going to get the cherry home-and-home opportunities against the big schools, so they gamed the RPI formula.  First off, avoid games against the lower third of teams except for the ones you have to play in conference.  BCS conference teams were more than happy to buy those games anyways to drive toward 20 wins.  Second, find neutral site games and “preseason” tournaments to add additional games to the schedule that have the road/neutral bonus.  Finally, the “Bracket Buster” series was established to give these teams additional Top 50/Top 100 games to both their contenders, as well as the mid and lower conference teams.  The result has been frustration and consternation, and arguably the end of the RPI used as the basis for selection and seeding. 

Virginia Tech under Seth Greenberg was the example of how the system was being worked and how NOT to schedule.  It seemed every season, they would take advantage of their natural home court advantage and spoil a Duke, Maryland, or UNC, chalk up a few other Top 50 wins on their way to 23-9, lose early in the ACC tourney, then find themselves in the NIT because their schedule was fat on Campbell, Longwood, and VMI.  Now it is possible for a team to get screwed because after putting together a fair schedule, those opponents all just had a bad year, but Tech played some good teams… it’s just that the bad teams were always really bad.  Now the book out is that if you anticipate being in the bubble discussion, avoid those games and on the weak BCS teams, weak mid majors, or the best small conference schools.  This has made scheduling harder for the non-BCS conferences because they cannot offer their opponent the same resources or exposure.  Hence, the rich get richer through association, and the middle class fights the fight.

On to the predictions!

The ACC is a true dog fight.  5 elite teams, 7 legitimate bubble teams, 2 doormats, and 1 Clemson.  UVA and Miami have huge upside and downside, but I can’t see either falling below .500, even in this loaded conference.  Notre Dame and Florida State will likely get high seeds based on strength of schedule, and this conference will probably never get 12 teams in, but 10 is not out of the question.

The Big Ten is also loaded the same way with 3 legit final four players, the enigma that is Michigan State every year, 4 other teams that will have to play their way out at this point, four other bubble teams, and then the 2 doormats.  When I finished my predictions, I was surprised how low I had Michigan.  They seem safe, yet bottom half of the conference.  While there is much to like about the progress being made at Northwestern and Nebraska, it just seems that there is a chasm of talent between them and the next tier.  The other teams are all rebuilding, not reloading.

One through five in the PAC 12 are fairly interchangeable based on schedule, injuries, suspensions.  Utah has great upside, and USC is sneaky good this year and a fun Sweet 16 dark horse.  I’m betting on Cal and Washington stumbling this year before making moves next year, though Lorenzo Romar may not make it around if the Huskies are tanking winnable games.  People have shown that is possible to win in Pullman, but not this year… not sure that is the case in Tempe or Corvallis, as those teams never seem to play up to potential.

Texas returning to respectability ups the profile of this conference.  I don’t see a true front-runner, even if Kansas has the talent to do so.  Bob Huggins will beat and bruise and win 75% of his games.  The question is: “where is the fall off?”  There are strong teams here, but Oklahoma was a Buddy Hield force, but will show growing pains.  Brad Underwood has Oklahoma State trending the right way, but inherited a mess.  Baylor has talent, but man, that athletic program is a ticking time bomb.  Can Jamie Dixon turn TCU around, or was that Pitt program really Ben Howland and a house of cards that nobody knocked down?  This smells of a 4 bid league, but will probably get 6.

My thoughts on the SEC were pretty clear.  It is Kentucky and a bunch of 8-9 seed fodder.  I like South Carolina, but Frank Martin started with nothing there and is coaching up a bunch of 2 and 3 stars.  There are lots of good coaches down here, but the football drain on these programs seems to keep many dormant until after bowl games.  Texas A&M was a good story last year, but they are fringy at best.  Florida is not taking a step forward.  I am still not sure why Arkansas is getting so much love, but Mike Anderson at least plays exciting basketball.  The real wild card and potential west division anchor going forward could be Auburn and Bruce Pearl.  His ethics will always be questioned, but he does what Mike Anderson does, and he has typically had more success and consistency.

Now that this is complete, I should have a bracket out Wednesday.