One Bid League Predictions

Once again, no slights intended as to who's who here.  I just know that despite gaudy records, these regular season champions have no shot of catching the eye of the committee for an at-large:

Not much to say about the MAC, other than there doesn't seem to be any continuity or esteem here anymore. A hot season or two in the MAC used to be a launching pad to a nice BCS gig.  Instead, Keith Dambrot gets exiled to Duquesne for his accomplishments.  Duquense would be at the bottom of the MAC, and it's not for a lack of trying from Everhart or Ferry.  That said, the MAC still gets coaches, they still get players, but they just don't build the resumes they used to and have fallen behind the likes of the MAAC, Summit, and Southern.  I would not see any of these top 4 hanging with the Ivy top 4 over the long haul.

The WAC is up for grabs.  UVU doesn't quite have the horses to maintain their pace for a full 40 and will struggle against the top 3.  Bakersfield has been on a nice run, but with GCU eligible for postseason, it makes their path more difficult.  The Aztecs looked ready to run the regular season table until the road went through the other top schools.  This should be an entertaining race, but I expect Dan Majerle to get GCU to the promised land in their first season of eligibility.

The Ohio Valley has been a lot of Belmont, but without Bradds, that should change.  Jacksonville St. finished on the upswing and will continue that way.  Too much turmoil elsewhere in the conference to feel anyone else is a sexy pick.

The Summit is simple: the Dakota schools are good (the monopoly will be more apparent with UND coming over next year), ORU and Western Illinois are not.  Fort Wayne had their window close, and Denver is recovering from Joe Scott. 

This is the worst Big Sky I can remember.  NAU, ISU, SUU are among the worst teams in the country again.  There was a time when the Sky would park one team down there only to have them bounce back.  I like the skill players at Idaho (Sanders) and Montana St (Hall) to drive those teams to the top of the standings.

Duggar Baucom has his system and players in place, but I think the opposition is on to his pace and The Citadel can only go as far as their defense takes them.  UNC Greensboro has a fun team, but I don't think they have the overall consistency to take the regular season crown from Furman.

Vermont probably won't be on the fringes of the at-large discussion, but they should roll through the AE again.  Albany provides a nice foil, but UNH is several steps below after that.

Bucknell has a NCAA weekend-caliber team.  I don't see anyone in the Patriot gaining ground, though the work that Ed DeChellis has done, and Navy should improve their league win total for the 6th straight year.

Updates: Ohio Valley and Big Sky

Ohio Valley

Summary: Well, maybe Morehead State’s season wasn’t sabotaged, but the expectations are certainly reduced with the coaching situation in flux.  This is far from a bad team; just one that lacks the composure to turn the tables on opponents and win close contests.  They should have the upper hand in many OVC games, just probably not against Belmont and Tennessee State.

What I got wrong: Jacksonville State- Ray Harper has slowed the team down and they have improved dramatically on offense.  Not sure Erik Durham keeps up his pace, but he has been huge. Adding the big Lithuanian is also a game changer in a conference built around speed.

Prognosis: Jax slows down a little.  Murray State and Eastern Illinois will throw their hat in the ring.  It looks to be a long season for Tennessee Tech and Austin Peay.  The conference, as it seems for the past decade, is Belmont’s to take or defer.  They play well enough to beat the teams they should beat, and play competitively against the top 100, but I don’t see this as my “they are going to drop Duke” lock.  Distance shooting is a problem, and Evan Bradds is only taking them so far.  TSU’s suffocating defense and road performances at MTSU, NCST, and Duke are encouraging, but probably no enough.

OVC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Belmont	Belmont
2	Morehead State	Tennessee State
3	Murray State	Murray State
4	Tennessee State	Jacksonville State
5	Eastern Illinois	Eastern Illinois
6	Tennessee Tech	Morehead State
7	Eastern Kentucky	Eastern Kentucky
8	Tennessee Martin	Tennessee Martin
9	Austin Peay	Tennessee Tech
10	Jacksonville State	Austin Peay
11	SIU Edwardsville	SIU Edwardsville
12	Southeast Missouri State	Southeast Missouri State

Big Sky

Summary: This is the worst Sky Conference I can remember.  Typically, one team will fall in that “Bottom 50” pit, but right now, they have four squads that are completely helpless.  Weber State and Montana look mediocre enough and played a thriller the other night, but neither could be expected to challenge a 1 or 2 seed.  North Dakota’s schedule has been terrible, but they did sneak in a win over Bakersfield, split with NDST, and competitive losses at Iowa and Northern Iowa (and Wright St, but that anywhere near a tourney team).

What I got wrong: Northern Arizona… I’m not even sure where to start other than Yikes! Combine one of the worst shooting teams in the country with non-existent defense and the recipe for disaster is complete (Ditto to Sacto St).  Jack Murphy’s teams have exhibited these tendencies every year, but never this extreme.  Can’t imagine he makes to the offseason. Northern Colorado has played through their issues and challenging schedule and come out strong on the other side.  I wouldn’t call them a contender, but certainly better than the drek.

Prognosis: They will be very fortunate if their bid avoids the play-in line, and that is not even accounting for conference play further depressing their RPI numbers.  A little reshuffling at the top, but the major changes are dropping no shows NAU, IDST, and SAC.  Idaho State can at least point to missing personnel as a factor, so they get the nod as the best of the worst.

SKY	Preseason	Realtime
1	Weber State	Weber State
2	North Dakota	North Dakota
3	Northern Arizona	Montana
4	Montana	Idaho
5	Idaho	Northern Colorado
6	Idaho State	Montana State
7	Sacramento State	Eastern Washington
8	Montana State	Portland State
9	Eastern Washington	Idaho State
10	Portland State	Southern Utah
11	Northern Colorado	Northern Arizona
12	Southern Utah	Sacramento State

2017 Predictions: The Mid-Majors

So maybe I don't follow the NCAA criteria for conference classifications... sue me.  I remember a time when the WAC was so big and powerful, they had a WAC-off to see which of the 16 teams could garner the at-large bid.  Unsure why the WAC became the AIDS of college conferences, but nobody wants to go near it... poor New Mexico State has been trying to escape for ages.  Typically they would be a lock to win, but Grand Canyon has been playing some good ball and should lock up the regular season title despite not being eligible for the NCAA tournament.

Monmouth should cruise this year, and there are a few other fringe Top 25 teams lurking in this group.  The Ivy League should be a dogfight at the top, and those 2 Harvard/Princeton games are must see TV, but nobody can sleep on Yale.  Same with Chattanooga and East Tennessee State atop the Southern, but Mercer is lurking as a dark horse.  Valpo will see a drop off that will allow Green Bay to get back to the Dance with its methodical approach.  UNCW is geared to repeat, but the seismic shifts in the CAA have left a power void that could be grabbed by anyone, but my guess would be Charleston or Elon.  Belmont continues to rule the OVC, but probably doesn't have the threats to sneak up to the 12/13 line, nor do they have the talent or depth to win from the 15 line.  My "so dark it may be invisible" horse would be Northern Arizona to find their legs and start laying the wood in Flagstaff again.

Anyways, here are the projected standings.