Showing posts with label WAC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WAC. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

One Bid League Predictions

Once again, no slights intended as to who's who here.  I just know that despite gaudy records, these regular season champions have no shot of catching the eye of the committee for an at-large:


Not much to say about the MAC, other than there doesn't seem to be any continuity or esteem here anymore. A hot season or two in the MAC used to be a launching pad to a nice BCS gig.  Instead, Keith Dambrot gets exiled to Duquesne for his accomplishments.  Duquense would be at the bottom of the MAC, and it's not for a lack of trying from Everhart or Ferry.  That said, the MAC still gets coaches, they still get players, but they just don't build the resumes they used to and have fallen behind the likes of the MAAC, Summit, and Southern.  I would not see any of these top 4 hanging with the Ivy top 4 over the long haul.

The WAC is up for grabs.  UVU doesn't quite have the horses to maintain their pace for a full 40 and will struggle against the top 3.  Bakersfield has been on a nice run, but with GCU eligible for postseason, it makes their path more difficult.  The Aztecs looked ready to run the regular season table until the road went through the other top schools.  This should be an entertaining race, but I expect Dan Majerle to get GCU to the promised land in their first season of eligibility.

The Ohio Valley has been a lot of Belmont, but without Bradds, that should change.  Jacksonville St. finished on the upswing and will continue that way.  Too much turmoil elsewhere in the conference to feel anyone else is a sexy pick.

The Summit is simple: the Dakota schools are good (the monopoly will be more apparent with UND coming over next year), ORU and Western Illinois are not.  Fort Wayne had their window close, and Denver is recovering from Joe Scott. 

This is the worst Big Sky I can remember.  NAU, ISU, SUU are among the worst teams in the country again.  There was a time when the Sky would park one team down there only to have them bounce back.  I like the skill players at Idaho (Sanders) and Montana St (Hall) to drive those teams to the top of the standings.

Duggar Baucom has his system and players in place, but I think the opposition is on to his pace and The Citadel can only go as far as their defense takes them.  UNC Greensboro has a fun team, but I don't think they have the overall consistency to take the regular season crown from Furman.

Vermont probably won't be on the fringes of the at-large discussion, but they should roll through the AE again.  Albany provides a nice foil, but UNH is several steps below after that.

Bucknell has a NCAA weekend-caliber team.  I don't see anyone in the Patriot gaining ground, though the work that Ed DeChellis has done, and Navy should improve their league win total for the 6th straight year.

Monday, January 9, 2017

Update: WAC

One last one-bid before we breakdown the big guys.

Western Athletic
Summary:  The Aggies need to find a new conference.  They are a vastly different athletic department from the other seven schools here.  The strength of schedule is weak enough to take luster off 15-2, but in a row is 13 in a row.  Bakersfield is still good enough to steal the bid in a tourney, and GCU would be a nice story without those two brutal losses to Edwardsville and Riverside.  Utah Valley beat BYU and hung in against all the Utah schools, but don’t have anything to show for the effort that would indicate they are better than .500.

What I got wrong: No regression for NMST.  They are clearly the class of the WAC.  Not sure why Seattle hasn’t improved this year, another dark horse that lost its way.  Cameron Dollar has been running that program long enough to get over the top, but for what ever reason, they cannot score consistently with their size.

Prognosis:  The Aggies won’t run the table, but may get close (12-2 is about right).  Martez Harrison’s dismissal will prevent the Kangaroos from making a run.  Tracy Dildy continues to plug away and improve at Chicago St despite the lack of funds and facilities… they may threaten to move out of the cellar.

WAC
Preseason
Realtime
1
Grand Canyon *
New Mexico State
2
Bakersfield
Grand Canyon *
3
New Mexico State
Bakersfield
4
Seattle
Utah Valley
5
Kansas City
Seattle
6
Utah Valley
UMKC
7
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
8
Chicago State
Chicago State