January 24th Bracket is live!
The biggest change is that I tweaked my formula to give a
little bit more weight to quality wins, and penalized teams for being the
conference punching bag. Basically, your
conference cannot be the self-licking ice cream cone, with certain teams riding
their way to good computer rankings by going 0-10 against the top 50.
Apologies to Pittsburgh and Texas A&M. I didn’t even have the Aggies in my matrix of
Top 100 candidates. That has been
remedied, and while they didn’t make a list, they are lurking much closer to
the fringe than I anticipated.
Pittsburgh was originally in my 12 seed play in game, but would have an
ACC conflict with UVA in the weekend round.
They were bumped for Boise State, whose numbers are not poor, but they
are hardly better than:
THE FIRST FOUR OUT
Right now, Pittsburgh and VCU are getting the raw deal. VCU needs to keep winning, period. There are no good losses in the A-10 right
now. As Houston fades, Memphis is
probably feeling that spot is theirs to claim.
Oklahoma State and their #1 SoS needs to get back to .500 in conference
to feel safe.
THE NEXT FOUR OUT
My ratings tweak mostly shuffle the deck chairs with no
major impacts, other than poor Miami.
They plummet in the rating into the 60s, basically because they beat up
on trash and lost to anyone meaningful they played. Two Top 50 wins would get them back in, but
there are desperate teams out there that are not going to give that up in the
ACC. Utah has decent numbers, but really
are the epitome of a top-heavy PAC-12.
Ditto for Arkansas, who has the tools and opportunities to move up into
the bracket. Brigham Young is the
longest of long shots, as they do not have nearly enough opportunities, and
have been prone to choking those away.
One Gonzaga win changes everything.
LAST FOUR IN
Michigan, Houston, Seton Hall, Boise State. Houston and Seton Hall were hurt a lot by the
ratings tweaks, sliding down a few lines.
Neither is particularly threatening, and I could see the committee
dumping them both for more attractive names.
I mean, I watch the Big East and feel Providence can get hotter than the
Pirates. Boise State may want to go
claim the autobid, as their hold on this spot will only get weaker. San Diego State in the MWC has a much stronger
profile to grab that spot. The
Wolverines seem to enjoy this zone. They
can’t get hot enough to win 3-4 in a row, but they are too consistent to bottom
out.
ENJOYING A SOFT BUBBLE
Michigan State, TCU, Clemson, Rhode Island
When I ran my numbers last week, it wanted Clemson as a 5
seed. Now it has settled them into the
10-11 range, contingent they climb out of the ACC cellar. TCU did just enough early to ride this out,
but I can easily see them getting bullied into the NIT. Rhode Island is in trouble like anyone else
in to A-10 who cannot essentially win out.
8 losses there is probably doom.
Michigan State was originally on the 10 line, but lost out on the
seeding shuffle to TCU (11 to 9) and UNC Wilmington (9 to 10).
THE ONE SEEDS
No matter how you slice it, Kansas and Villanova are not
going anywhere until they get to 5 losses.
Everything is deep there. The big
winners are Baylor and Florida State.
FSU slides in ahead of UNC, because they have passed every test. Baylor has been helped by West Virginia’s
recent struggles, as well as the PAC-12 and SEC blowing donkeys. None of these teams are particularly
vulnerable until they lose a couple more games.
Kentucky and UNC are closest to the 1 line, though an undefeated or
1-loss Gonzaga team will be hard to ignore.
Wisconsin isn’t really close to a 1 seed, but can easily build the
profile in the Big Ten.
SURPISES
Kansas State finds themselves on the 10 line, across from a
much improved Virginia Tech team.
Northwestern storms the table and has the computer numbers to hold their
spot,
minus any more players getting relegated to janitor. Maryland is quietly stalking Purdue.
Butler gets a huge boost from their beast
non-conference slate and jumps Creighton and Xavier in the Big East pecking order.
Duke is in free-fall right now, having
dropped 1 to 3 to 5 just like that, and this projection doesn’t even include
last night’s collapse.
INTERESTING MATCHUPS
(5) Oregon playing the BSU/SHU winner. Oregon should be able to run them out of the
gym, but could also be vulnerable playing a team already warmed up.
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Wichita State sounds like it should be a
Sweet 16 game, not a first rounder.
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Valpo in the battle for Indiana.
(6) SMU vs. (11) MSU, where it seems these seedings should
be switched, right?
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Ohio… UCLA better hope this is not Akron,
or one of the other 13/14 seeds that can score…. Or God forbid Princeton sneaks
in again.
FUTURE TWEAKS
I plan to get a coefficient to weight last 10 games. Not sure who this helps the most, but my
thoughts are mid majors that go on a run and get upended in their conference
tourney may benefit most. BCS Bubble
Teams are usually there because they can’t get over the 5-5/6-4 hump to show a
run.
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