Confirmed... and some things I did not see coming

A new segment that will likely exist primarily on Twitter. Basically a quick take of a couple of the results of the night that help explain some of the thought behind selections and seedings for this year's bracket.

6 DEC
Confirmed suspicions... that they are going to make a run in The Valley
Loyola 65, Florida 59: Loyola is a very slow, frustrating team to play.  Not necessarily like Virginia, who grinds the game to a halt, but a team that doesn't give away a lot on the offensive end as far as poor shot selection. 3 point shots are taken in rhythm to maximize conversion rate and prevent breaks the other way.  Extra passes in and out of the paint make 8-footers 6-footers, and 6-footers vulnerable for an easy backdoor cut.  I was not expecting that Florida would enter the SEC slate undefeated, but a couple losses to Duke, FSU, even Cinci or Clemson next week would risk their 1 line status... Loyola though?  Maybe Loyola is an at large caliber team.  Which is good because Valpo is a wildcard right now, hot, but untested.

Blindsided... Just because Lorenzo Romar couldn't have been THAT bad
Washington 74, Kansas 65: KU had beaten UK, blown out tourney front runners S Dakota St, Oakland, and Texas Southern, and humbled Syracuse.  I get the game was in KC as opposed to Allen, but the Huskies ran with this one late.  Typically, the better team gets behind early and just can't get enough rhythm or opportunity to comeback.  But not this time.  UW won every stage of the game and Kansas, playing more like a feisty underdog, kept up early, but just couldn't make the plays a top team would make to close out inferior competition.  And this is not indicative of the Huskies level of play.  They have struggled to beat their "peers" in the mid-level rankings (100-200) and were quite convincingly dispatched at MSG last month by Top 50 squads.

Inactivity

I apologize, but my new job actually forces me to, well, work during business hours instead of doing the detailed research I like to get done before writing an actual post.

As far as the Nats go, since the Werth signing, the have made several B and C level moves, basically playing a game of Gin Rummy with the bottom half of the league. None of the signings really jumps out and moves the Nats closer to .500; yet none of the moves looks to strap the franchise or leave them exposed for a tailspin to 100 losses. With such little drama and such little time to write, can you blame me for taking the month off. Plus, a couple of my favorite blog sources (FJB and Nats Farm Authority) shut their operations down.

1 month until pitchers and catchers... I'm sure things will ramp up.

October Off, What is New in September

As the major league baseball season drags through September and the team which you are covering really isn't doing anything remarkable, it becomes difficult to stay motivated and get these random thoughts to text. Neither of my teams (Oakland, Washington) were a threat to do anything after September 1, and aside from Espinosa's hot start, it was a letdown. It would take something newsworthy to get rolling again with the playoffs dominating the headlines. I even considered adding in thoughts from other walks of life.

Then, as expected, Pat Listach was in the wind. Some experts thought he had a shot at the Cubs managerial job, and he interviewed around before settling in as Quade's lieutenant. It's still hard for me to envision Listach as a manager, since it seems like just yesterday he was taking home Rookie of the Year honors for Milwaukee... then again, at the time Milwaukee was still in the AL, so who knows anymore.

With Riggleman not a long term fix at manager for the Nats, Listach would have been a great fit for a maturing team looking to make the next step. It is unfortunate they couldn't find a way to promote him or keep him on staff, though there is always the chance he will still be looking for a top job when Riggleman runs his course. The Bobby Coxes only come around once a decade, so most teams are shedding managers within five seasons.

Tick... Tick... Tick...

Damn, I should never sleep next to my watch... that thing is loud!

Game Diary, 6/5, vs Cincinnati

Blogger Day at the Park. Pictures and analysis to follow tomorrow.




7:05: And the first boo of the game goes to... Joe West! And they haven't played anything off his album yet.

7:08: E-5... let's hope this isn't a pattern.

7:12: Wait, Joey Votto is Canadian? This explains that whole anxiety thing last year. He responds by smacking a double down the line... Cabrera scores the unearned run.

7:17: Wil makes a nifty catch along the dugout rail, minimizing the damage. Atilano could be in for a long night if he can't keep the ball low.

7:21: Guzman hustles down the line, denying Cabrera of a great first out... these are the types of plays he HAS to make to stay in the lineup.

7:22: Plush pops up a bunt, nearly makes it a twin killing, then slams a couple water bottles in the dugout... not sure how to interpret this development.

7:27: Nats strand two as Hammer rips a full count fastball a little too deep to center. Listach held Guzman on Dunn's rip to the corner, despite a poor throw toward second by Jay Bruce. Could have been tied, but the Nats go conservative early.

7:34: Textbook 6T-3 double play turned by Desmond. The guy has range.

7:40: Bernadina wastes a lead off single by trying to steal against Hernandez, on a fastball, no less. Desmond singles on the next pitch.

7:43: Mike Leake went straight to the Reds after being drafted last season... he leads off this inning, batting .381. Now he is batting .409.

7:50: Wait... is Billy Hatcher the Reds' first base coach?

7:55: Flippin Pizza may be the new kid on the concourse, but Nyjer brings back Slice Down the Line for a standing double... he hasn't had many of those this season and seems to feed off his own success, and drown in failures.

7:57: Press box doesn't give the best view for ball/strike judgments.

7:59: Storms looming... stay tuned.

8:18: Back from the production room... Teddy did not win.

8:19: And Mike Leake is now hitting .435... the "hitting pitcher" philosophy is a debate for another time.

8:21: Leake scores on a meatball blistered by Cabrera. Atilano has escaped unscathed up until now, but Votto is likely to come up with a RISP.

8:25: Don't understand the pick off posturing... get the second out at the plate!

8:28: Clutch effort rebounding to retire Phillips weakly and Votto swinging.

8:30: Looks like they filled out to 28K or so. Even the Presidential (the seats, not the vodka) looks populated.

8:31: Ugh... Slappy with another weak infield ground out, followed by some good work by Votto on a foul pop. Very impatient right now, and actually surprised Atilano hit given the quick hook some of the pitchers have been shown

8:32: 5 pitch inning.

8:34: Of course Zim makes that play... of course.

8:36: Even at second base, it appears Guzman just doesn't move as well to his left as he does his right. There must be a stat for this.

8:41: Epic at bat here by Bruce... must be the tenth pitch.

8:42: A beauty to end the inning, strike out-throw out on the five hundredth pitch of the at bat. Great job by Wil sticking with the play despite nearly getting decapitated by the previous foul tip with the runner going.

8:45: And the last four batters have seen six pitches.

8:49: Willingham comes up to "Your Love"... good things can only follow.

8:50: Pat Listach gets an ovation for flashing some of his defensive prowess from days of yore.

8:53: Bernadina takes three straight borderline pitches... the box is in shock Joe West didn't ring him up just for the sake of ringing him up.

8:54: The sixth pitch destroys his bat, but Votto mishandles the ball as ash falls to the earth around him. Zim scores from second. This is Desmond's bread and butter... but he chases to out of the zone and grounds out weakly to third.

8:58: 2-1 in the seventh... in other words, Nationals Baseball!

8:58: Absolutely stunned Atilano is still in the game. 107 pitches and counting... Leake on deck.

9:02: Hernandez down again. 78 strikes on 112 pitches. Huge effort from the rookie. And he retire Leake on a well struck to second. Arguably one of the three best starting performances this year, Livo's shutout and Olsen's near no-no withstanding. (Final count- 114 pitches, 80 strikes)

9:05: One of the dugout dancing girls just bitch-slapped another... highlight of the night.

9:07: Attendance listed at 23K... I was a little off.

9:07: I know Willie was brought in to face the righty, but Morse was crushing the ball in BP. Doesn't that play into the decision making?

9:10: Errant throw between innings clocked a fan in the first row... medical staff on the scene.

9:12: Cabrera absolutely crushes a ball to left-center, second hanger he has seen tonight.

9:14: Long conference to get Burnett warm to face Votto.

9:16: More posturing toward the runner at second. Are the Reds known for stealing third?

9:18: Phillips puts a two-strike pitch up the middle... not Walker's finest hour.

9:20: Burnett comes out of the pen to Whitesnake. Last season, "Here I Go Again" would be taken in completely different context regarding the bullpen.

9:23: Phillips dead to rights at third base trying to take two on the wild pitch, but Desmond called for baseline interference? I didn't see any contact or attempt to impede the runner... Riggleman gets tossed arguing the play. Votto completes the disaster by drawing a full count walk from 0-2.

9:28: Desmond comes home instead of turning two. With Scott Rolen hitting and Phillips on third, the play was to concede the run and turn two. Phillips destroys Nieves at the plate with a forearm shimmy and he loses the ball. Phillips shows everyone up after the play and will likely see a ball in the back tomorrow.

9:31: Single, 5-1. Not a storybook finish right now, as the error count is at three again.

9:41: Old-ass Arthur Rhodes in to work Morgan and Dunn around Zimmerman... 0.39 ERA on the season.

9:44: Predictably, the inning starts K-BB. It's up to Dunn to extend this one.... not even close on the slider, though. 1-2.

9:46: GIDP... no chance to be saved by the Hammer.

9:48: Is there any excuse for this game to be pushing three hours?

9:51: Slick move from Billy Hatcher, dissing the kids fighting over the foul ball and flipping it elsewhere.

9:53: Zim sticks with it and makes a good throw... nice to see his focus late in a mostly over game.

9:54: And there is the plunking!! Apparently Joe West did see Phillips trash talking and knew it was coming, because the ejection was immediate. He has now tossed 4 Nats in two games... what are the chances Wil moves for a pitchout on a fastball down the middle?

9:56: Slaten in to face Votto... I think the Nats are getting ready for tomorrow, as the bullpen is getting thin.

9:57: "And Miguel Batista was ejected from the game... for those who didn't notice." The Nats won't be supporting Joe West's upcoming tour.

10:01: Always a fielding adventure with Adam Dunn.

10:09: Two-out single by Desmond. No pitch hitter for Nieves, which is a little short-sighted. Kennedy should hit for him, then Morse for the pitcher. A rally is unlikely, but much less likely with Nieves taking cuts. I know they don't want Burke to get into the game, but how likely was that scenario?

10:11: Strikeout, game over. Three games this week of three errors. Apparently they do come in threes.

Tuesday Game Diary

Hadn't had a chance to either write, nor sit down and watch much baseball period, so I decided to do a running diary. I will try to collect some thoughts over the next few days and weigh in on the team's mirage second place standing.

7:12: Ugh... there is a instance for the head-first slide into first base, but that is not it. The only way Plush beats that is if the ball is dropped, and that only adds the injury risk.

7:13: Nice walk by Guzman... and the announcers are all over it. May 11th and that is #4 on the year.

7:15: Heady baserunning by Guzman, runners on the corners, 1 out.

7:16: Pop fly to right... and it's a home run! Killer instinct from Dunn, sitting fastball all the way on 3-0, and that is now the score.

7:20: Though it was a ball, great first pitch from Olsen. Nice downward plane, low and away.

7:23: Olsen getting in the umps ear after a great first inning... this guy is never satisfied.

7:29: Never a fan of the sac bunt with an out. Especially when the next batter has the hitting skill set of Nyjer Morgan.

7:32: Yes! Dibble is talking about Pushing Tin.

7:32: Great at bat from Morgan.

7:34: Another walk from Guzman.... Holy Crap!

7:37: Disappointing at bat from Zimmerman, not sure what seemed off. He hit the crap out of the ball.

7:43: Ouch... rocket off Olsen's ankle... can't imagine that will not affect him.

7:45: Great work turning two.

8:02: Another timely double play to get out of the inning. Olsen has kept the ball low and gotten out when he needed them.

8:08: Another base hit for Taveras... it must be Opposite Day or something.

8:22: Just when it looks like Olsen is going to crack, he gets a much needed strikeout of an overmatched Ike Davis.

8:23: No, the Rays did not break any unwritten rules during the perfect game... this is a bs media controversy. The game was in the 5th inning. If it's the 7th inning, maybe we have an argument.

8:25: And Olsen rolls on, turning the double play himself to get out of the inning, punching out Francouer as well. Still a long way to go, but clearly the Mets offense is a little stale.

8:30: 3-0 to Zimmerman... Dunn will likely be Niese's last hitter, barring a double play.

8:31: Righty in the Mets pen.

8:33: Adam Dunn can be downright frustrating to watch... what percentage of his K's are inverted?

8:37: Pudge delivers, buying Olsen and and the bullpen an extra inning or two. With a large lead, Riggleman has the option to extend Olsen to 110+ pitches, or roll out a low-leverage guy and rest Burnett, Clippard, and Capps. Olsen is hot, so it wouldn't be a bad idea to ride the hot arm... it won't stay hot forever.

8:40: Good point... on-base percentage, or the ability to not make outs, is the best weapon a batter can have. Sure, the home run is more demoralizing, and fans like the ball in play, but walks are free bases, no chance be thrown out.

8:45: Safety squeeze? That is actually Dibble's mistress on the side.

8:48: Somebody get Acosta a map to the strike zone!

8:49: Bases left loaded again... never sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing. The fact they were loaded is always a good sign.

8:50: The Mercury chick... still hot after all this time.

8:53: Absolutely a terrible mental error by Nyjer Morgan. Never want to give the opponent momentum like that. Up 6-1, everyone has to maintain focus.

8:58: Bases Loaded, 1 out, Glee starting in 90 seconds... CRAP! Olsen will prevail. Keep the ball low.

10:01: It is official. The Brian Bruney era can end now... now fingers pointed, no questions asked. There wasn't a sure thing in the Rule 5 draft, so the trade wasn't a complete disaster. However, time is up. Bruney is completely unable to pitch at the major league level. Time to cut ties and move on with someone else.

10:09: I was going to try and coin the name Brian "low-leverage" Bruney, but let's face it: Bruney will not be on the roster June 1st... he may not even be on the roster May 15th.

10:12: Clippard again inherited runners and let them in, but this the first time he looked rattled. Hopefully regression to the mean is a little more kind.

10:18: Batista throws more gasoline on the fire... this looks more like 2009. Somehow Riggleman took a 6-1 lead and burned nearly everyone in the pen... not sure how that is even possible, but at least lessons can be derived from this disaster.

10:24: And the bottom of the 8th just entered its 30th minute, so I surrender. The early removal of Olsen (82 pitches) extended the game for the Mets and Bruney was called into action. Either Olsen finishes the sixth or Walker returns for the seventh... at least the umpires didn't botch the replay.

10:32: Not expecting a win anymore... but hoping the bats don't roll over and play dead. Scott Olsen didn't have his best stuff, and the Braves were probably right saying he didn't have "no-hit" stuff last week, but he pitched well enough to let the bats determine the team's fate.

Man, What a Beatdown

There have been a few positives that have come out of the first games. They do not even come close to outweighing some of the negatives, but there is reason to believe that the Nats have improved in a couple areas.

Left-handed relief: A few days ago, I realized that Joe Beimel was still unsigned (the Rockies since signed him to a crappy minor league deal) and was pissed the Nats did nothing to bring him back. Well, it is difficult to argue with their decision, as Burnett has produced consistent numbers with sustained "success" for two years now. The key is keeping him from having to appear in eighty games. Jesse English should be able to handle the lower leverage situations without during 5-2 deficits into 8-2 deficits, and occasionally stepping in to get a key 7th inning out.

There are many more reasons to worry. The bomb aside, Ian Desmond looked horribly overmatched with a runner on second and 2 out, hacking furiously at balls out of the zone. He should have that arrogance about him, knowing crappy relief pitchers will waste pitches to him because balls in the zone are problematic. That, and he may be after a couple dubious records in the field. The growing pains will make fans long for Guzman.

Jason Marquis looked shaky, almost Daniel Cabrera at time, but the 87 mph meatball deposited by Ryan Howard off the Acela sign was inexcusable. If anything, miss to Howard and pitch to Werth... don't let Howard mash a freebie. Just bad decision making and execution.

Right field is still struggling, and Cristian Guzman's cameo almost turned hilarious. Both Harris and Morse deserve about a month before searching for alternatives.

The Phillies are good, but those optimistic 78 win predictions are flying out the window quickly.

9 Walks, 4 Strikeouts

HOLY CRAP!

Counter that with a wonderful 3 walks and 11 strikeout out of the other dugout and what you just saw was a AAAA team get massacred by a Major League team.

Other notes:

The Nats made the game's only error.
The Phillies hit two home runs; the Nats hit into two double plays.
Roy Halladay doubled hit career RBI total with his third career hit.
Pudge smacked three hits, including two doubles, and was never involved in any scoring.
53, 62, 49, 60, 56, 52: These are the strike percentages of the Nats pitchers.
The 62 and 60 belonged to Jesse English and Jason Bergmann, who combined for only 18 pitches.
One of Jason Bergmann's 3 strikes was crushed by Polanco for a two out grand slam.

And THAT is how to drop the opener 11-1.

15-5, 10-4

The Spring Training results do provide some insight as to where the club is and where it is going. Split squad games are especially demanding for the Nats due to their lack of depth, especially in the deeper end of the AAA bullpen. It looks as if most of the players that they expect to get major league contributions from showed up in decent shape, aside from Flores. It is the guys that Syracuse is going to rely on that are overmatched.

Whatever happened to Martis... holy cow.

The Schedule

The Nationals were bad last year. Real bad. Even just bringing back the roster that competed after the All-Star break and play quite respectably at times, it would have been impossible to not improve.

This year in Interleague play, the Nats draw the woeful AL Central, as well as the rival Orioles. Last year, pitting up against the best teams in the AL East, they went 7-11, which isn't too bad considering the top four teams in that division all had Pythagorean records well over .500. Plus, the three game series against the Red Sox was a virtual road trip given the pro-Boston crowd. Cleveland figures to be better, Kansas City worse; Detroit is probably worse, while Minnesota may be a little better (though stadium effects are underrated). The White Sox are still managed by Ozzie Guillen. There is no clear cut favorite, and no team likely to win 90 games. Last year's Nats would likely have split against the AL Central.

This year, with the improvements they have made, they should post a winning record against that crapfest. The key and difference between 65 and 75 wins will be improving on that dreadful 25-47 divisional record.

PS: The Zack Greinke show will be in town June 21-23... hopefully he gets a start.

Detwiler's Injury Relapse

Injuries happen. They happen to all teams in all sports. While there are many theories and techniques to prevent them, none are proven 100% and no team should rely on one system and expect it to work on all players.

However, once an injury occurs, there ARE proven rehab regiments to prevent recurrences and relapses. However, it seems that this is where the Nationals continue to shoot themselves in the foot. So many players (Kearns, Olsen, Zimmermann, Flores) shut down to rest a diagnosed malady, only to have it immediately flare up once they return to action.

Detwiler's setback is alarming because it follows a slew of other injuries and could have easily been taken care of months ago.

They apologists says that it is up to the player to disclose as much information as possible regarding the injury. This is true, but hardly a fact of life. These guys are out competing in a multi-million dollar industry. The psyche of the athlete, particularly the best athletes, is that they believe they can battle through a little pain and still beat their opponent. Think of it as the "Brett Favre" mentality. This is why team staff several athletic trainers and assistants. They are not in there only wrapping ankles. They monitor these players to insure that the team's investment is not being put at risk, yet it seems that the recurrence rate is creeping higher with each sprain.

Once again, nobody can force Craig Stammen to admit that his shoulder is killing him, but it isn't difficult to review the film and data following his hot run in July and notice that his mechanics were suffering. Maybe they injury wasn't "preventable", but he could have easily been put into a rehab program a month sooner and been ready for fall ball. Detwiler should have been ready to go for Spring Training, but instead will be fortunate to be pitching full strength by June. And what of the other guys? Jordan Zimmermann should hopefully be following the James Andrews playbook, but who knows... with the track record right now (see: Patterson, John), we may be lucky to see him in a Nats uniform again, no timetable, if ever.

See, bad teams are bad for a variety of reasons. Rizzo can improve the level of talent, but if other areas are still poorly managed, they will continue to tread in mediocrity.

The Long Term Impact of Being Cheap

It is more fun to root for a winner than a loser, though it is impossible to always win. If you can't root for a winner, it is certainly more fun to root for a team that is doing everything in its power to compete. There are many different models for doing this, from the Marlins' yearly "arbitration fire-sale" to the Moneyball employed in Oakland. Casual fans usually prefer to see players they have at least heard of before on the field, but more passionate followers know the value of replacement level players and that a relative unknown out of the minors may be a better fit for the long haul. What fans do not like is to feel like they are being screwed over by the team.

Nobody is going to fault management for being responsible with their purse strings. Hell, Alfonso Soriano could have single-handedly sunk the franchise. Instead, the team gave out several smaller bad contracts to spread the wealth. Then they did not sign their first round pick in 2009 over a few hundred thousand dollars, and battle with their "talent" at arbitration over even less. There is a line between being frugal and being cheap. The Marquis signing was frugal: the club didn't want to invest long term into the top free agents (not that those guys are coming to Washington), so they paid market value for the top of the next tier. Trading for Brian Bruney and haggling with him over 350K is just cheap. Why even bother trading for him in that case?


The Natmosphere has dissected the Brian Bruney arbitration mess from every angle, but the question remains: why will players come sign for a perennial loser if the team does not seem to be working in the players' best interests. Regardless of whether or not the Nationals go out and make competitive offers on the open market in the future, if they are labeled as being cheap by the players and agents, it will have long-term effects. Does anyone think Brian Bruney is going to go out and recruit any of his Yankee buddies in the coming offseason? Hell no. And when the players hear cheap, it doesn't just apply to salaries; they will assume that equipment, accommodations, etc, are all run the same way (which is sadly not far from the truth).

Nobody wants to work where the employees are miserable and there is little hope of change. Sure, it is great to get paid millions of dollars with little pressure to succeed (unlike a market like New York, where Javier Vasquez is returning to be crucified again), but in the end, the players that want to win are going to find a winner, and the rest will play for the Royals.

The MLB Doppleganger

The Reds outbid the Nats for the services of Aroldis Chapman, and now it looks like they have also won out on Orlando... Cabrera. I do find the tactics employed by the "New Front Office" fascinating. Rizzo is playing this like the drunk guy at the bar at last call; he will show interest in any girl with a pulse, and it all comes down to finding that one mark willing to go home with him. Most of these players on the Nats radar are ones that playoff contenders (the top 20 teams) covet to fill in the missing link, to push them over the top. And now with Cabrera a Red, Rizzo may actually get the second baseman of his dreams, Orlando Hudson.

The consensus was that the Nats needed to "rebuild." However, browsing the Washington farm reserves must have inspired a different approach. These signings look like that of a team trying to win, and of course the Nats are not trying to lose. However, look back to last year. The major league roster was so terrible last season, too many untested players were forced into roles they were not ready to handle. By bringing in some of these players on the cheap, hopefully some of these younger arms (Strasburg, Storen, Detwiler, Meyers... Stammen and Zimmermann) are able to develop outside the pressure of the major leagues and stay healthy. Most people feel the model for rebuilding is the Florida Marlins, an organization that sends their younger, cheaper players out there early and often, then trading them for more prospects prior to arbitration. The Nats have the money to keep their arbitration eligible players, so they make good use of the money.

However, take a look at these numbers: 73, 80, 72, 74, 78. Those are the win totals of those same Cincinnati Reds that have picked up Cabrera as a "final piece." The Reds are caught in the cycle that many teams get caught in year after year. They have enough capable major league players to feel they can compete, but never take the next step to breaking .500. Their problem, for quite a while, was holding on to players instead of cashing them in when their market value was highest, such as Adam Dunn, Aaron Harang, etc. Then they bring in second tier free agents, hoping Albert Pujols blows out a knee and they can sneak into the playoffs. In reality, they used up their young pitchers to quickly and are now hoping that Harang, Volquez, and Cueto can come back from injury. Had they eased of the accelerator in 2007 and 2008, they would have those guys healthy to join a peaking Homer Bailey and anchor Bronson Arroyo on opening day.

The Nats are likely to win 70-75 games this year, and making another small move coupled with the maturation of the young players on the roster, could improve on that to 75-80 wins. However, without a deep farm system, they will be forced to rely on getting lucky with a Jason Marquis or Orlando Hudson (both players who had outstanding impacts on their team last year) as a free agent, or hit home runs with the draft each season to avoid the type of sustained mediocrity posted by a team like the Reds. Sure, 78 wins looks so good to Nats fans right now, and given the current economic landscape, maybe that is as far as the Lerners feel they have to take the team to keep the fan base. The fans, though, really want to beat the Phillies, Mets, and Braves regularly, and probably will not hang around to watch ticket prices go up for a team destined for 70-80 wins each year because they invest too much in the present and past and not enough in the future.

Tough call

One Step Forward, One Step Back

Josh Whitesell has proven he can abuse the Pacific Coast League, and the Nats are giving him a chance to audition as Adam Dunn's understudy. Dunn isn't going to be a National forever. He is worth 10-15 M to an AL team, and that type of investment for the Nats is foolish given his defensive liabilities. Bringing Nick Johnson back this season would also have been foolish, given that his value has peaked and his presence would require reshuffling the defense.

It isn't fair to judge Whitesell on his 115 ML at bats; that wouldn't even qualify for the rookie status (though his 45 games may... I forget). Plus, with the number of extra moves needed to work in pinch hitters for pitchers, it helps to have a first baseman who doesn't have to be lifted late in games. He should get a fair shake at the job should Adam Dunn choose to seek greener pastures next year. Obviously, the organization thought highly enough of his skill set to bring him back after Jim Bowden left him for dead on waivers.

Eric Bruntlett, on the other hand, doesn't really provide much to the organization other that utility value. He's an average fielder and a very weak hitter. It is difficult to argue he can improve a single position at Syracuse, let alone on the ML roster. Fortunately, minor league deals, unless they have a clause built into them like Mike MacDougal's, are a win-win for the player and the team.

Guardado to a Minor League Deal

If there is one thing Eddie isn't, it's everyday. Most 39 year old "athletes" with his body type are long done with professional sports, though there are exceptions (David Wells). He gave the 2-seamer/cutter a shot last year to extend his career and scrapped it mid-season. His velocity is way down across the board, especially on his slider, and his release point is all over the place.

I see him being a valuable set-up man under two conditions. First, if he figures out that 2-seamer/cutter; he needs to be able to occasionally get out right-handed hitters. And second, if he can share a little of his baseball IQ and experience with the band of young misfits running around Nats Park. Most likely, he gets a shot or two early, struggles with command and velocity, and sees much the same results as Ron Villone.

Matt Capps- 3.5 million

This isn't an unreasonable deal if he in fact is the closer. However, there is an equally reasonable chance that he isn't even the best ex-Pirate reliever to come to town. One year gives the Nats a low risk option to evaluate all their closer options, which should include everybody floating around. I really feel that Clippard and Storen are the two best options, followed by Capps and MacDougal.

To be fair, Capps was ridiculously unlucky (.370 BABIP) on an offensively challenged team, following two seasons of fortune (.272 BABIP). He's a standard fastball/slider closer, and his velocities have remained solid for three seasons. It's unlikely he will be as bad as his 2009 numbers would indicate, but I'm not sold loading up on former Pirates.

Jason Marquis Now? The Pros and Cons

Upon seeing the Nats bring in Jason Marquis, I wondered if the team was suffering an identity crisis. Sure, Marquis is Rizzo's wet dream starter. He keeps the ball low and in the park, works efficiently, and by all accounts is a team first guy. The numbers and timing leave much to be desired, though. Here is a simple run down of the deal.

Con: Marquis is coming off a career year during which he was selected to the NL All-Star team. His candidacy, while solid, were clearly boosted by an inflated win total. This bargaining chip gave his team a leg up in any negotiations. The Nats, being really bad, did not need any further handicaps.

Pro: He can work deep into games, taking the burden off John Lannan to play stopper every five days.

Con: He posted career highs in innings pitched and batters faced, all the while tailing off dramatically in September.

Pro: The last three years, he survived hitters' paradises Wrigley Field and Coors Field, posting an ERA+ of 100 or better. He approaches the game consistently and has adjusted to his environment.

Con: His FIP in 2009 was three-quarters of a run better than his career average. Trends are nice to see; spike raise question marks. He is likely to regress closer to his career numbers.

Pro: He has pitched for a playoff team every year in his career.

Con: He is not a strikeout pitcher, now pitching for a team that desperately needs one.

Pro: An understated talent of his, Jason Marquis is not useless with a bat in his hand. He isn't a power hitter, nor can he take a walk, but his aggressive approach puts pressure on the other pitcher and can move runners from first to third and second to home on occasion. The Nats had 39 successful sacrifices in 2009; Marquis has 32... in his career (with 9 last year).

Con: Last time he pitched as many innings in a season, he stunk the following year.

Pro: He is 6 days older than me... age is not a factor.

Con: His groundball success in Denver was greatly assisted by having Troy Tulowitzki and Clint Barmes swallowing everything behind him. There are currently no such luxuries on the Nats roster.

Pro: He throws his sinking fastball early and often, staying ahead of hitters.

Con: Two-seamers tear the hell out of fingers and forearms. He may not be injury-prone, but these register a cumulative toll.

In all, it is easy to slam the deal because the Nats were forced to overpay to acquire the services of a league average pitcher. However, league average is a lofty goal for the Nats, so this could be a savvy move buy a few wins to show improvement going forward. B- for not getting him last season.

Do the Nationals Think They Can Win in 2010?

After foregoing the Rule 5 Draft by dealing their top pick to the Yankees for Brian Bruney, a mediocre pitcher who will make Joel Hanrahan look reliable, a wondered about the realistic short term goals of the Washington Nationals. Everybody wants to win, and winning sooner is always better than winning later, but teams who try to cut corners sacrifice much more further down the road (see: Redskins, Washington).

The draft picks surrendered to acquire this batch of free agents may not amount to a bag of rosin at the major league level; that is the rub with the amateur draft. There are very few "sure things" and even the best picks take three to five years to contribute. However, the conventional way to improve the organizational talent is to draft and acquire other organizations' proven prospects via trade. This doesn't have to be "Moneyball."

Honestly, I expected the Nats to be somewhat dormant in the free agent market, maybe trading for a couple of early arbitration players to get a couple of roster spots filled cheaply. Most of the rest of the work would be done to bring in as many options as possible to grow the talent at Harrisburg and Syracuse to compete in 2011 and 2012. The existing talent on the roster is good for about a ten win improvement in 2010, then as the pitching staff shakes out, modifications through free agency could be made to boost wins in subsequent years. Rizzo, on the other hand, dumped several draft picks in favor of known major league quantities.

Doug Slaten: known quantity, familiar with front office players

Brian Bruney: known quantity with limited major league upside, but should put up better numbers than Hanrahan or MacDougal

Jerry Owens: Nyjer Morgan insurance... somebody to play quality defensive CF in AAA

Ryan Speier: Local kid whose numbers should be league average

Ivan Rodriguez: Offensive production will be easy to project (no a good omen, in this case), clearly a signal that they are worried about Flores

Scott Olsen: Very low-risk, possibly high reward deal... the outlier

Jason Marquis: A good fit if the Nats improve their middle infield defense... though this deal looks like one a team who thinks it is in contention makes to add depth (Jeff Suppan to the Brewers, Carl Pavano to the Indians, etc)... a deal with little reward other than he has more experience than all those AAAA guys

Jamie Burke: Crash Davis?

Joel Peralta: Definition of AAAA

Logan Kensing: Somebody put on their Bad Idea Jeans and handed out a contract.

The Nationals are clearly trying avoid 100 losses in 2010. They may even avoid 90 with these options. However, most of these guys have had a shot and proved that they couldn't contribute much to a contender, aside from Marquis. When the Nats are expected to make another step forward in 2011, they will still have a glut of guys who are past their prime and won't be expected to improve.

The Rays needed four solid years to develop their slew of top picks, and never quit acquiring young prospects. It took an astute GM to sort through the mess and jettison the ones not expected to fulfill their promise (Delmon Young). Mike Rizzo is putting too much faith in the level of talent in the low minors right now, and for the Nats to continue to improve, their cannot be a dud amongst them. If there are, which there always are, they will be playing the free agent scramble every December to piece together a 75-win team from the leavings.

Mike Rizzo looks to be doubling-down on the Nyjer Morgan move and gambling for similar results. The Nats do have more financial resources than many teams, and may feel that the next two years are critical for establishing a paying crowd and television audience; that cannot be done with a AAA roster. In the end, the tactics cannot be condemned, though it should be mentioned that few franchises have successfully rebuilt this way.

Foundation

Roy Clark- 20+ years experience with the Braves organization

Johnny DiPuglia- 10+ years experience with the Red Sox organization

Doug Harris- 12 years with the Rangers prior to spending 2008 with Cleveland

Kris Kline- 7 years with the D'Backs, last 3 with the Nats

What it looks like the front office has done is brought in several career baseball guys with a track record of stability. These guys, if treated well by the organization, will not be out papering the league every off-season in search of a new opportunity. That's not to say these guys don't have goals; it's to say that their goals are better suited to the overall health of the Washington Nationals as a whole. This is completely unlike a Jim Bowden, or several other big names floating around out there. Sure, JP Riccardi is available and has a good eye for numbers, but even if he was more talented/better hire than Clark, how long is content for? 2 years? If that? And who's to say ego would not be a factor?

The Nats picked up four guys and moved them into more prominent roles. Clark and DiPuglia were important figures for successful organizations, while Harris and Kline have worked withing fruitful farm systems that traded away much of their better talent. Obviously, the Nats hope that these hires, like Rizzo, are able to stay and see the work through.

In contrast, go to a random NFL team and pick out their offensive coordinator (bonus points if you find Dan Henning) and check out how well traveled some are. While front office positions are not quite as fluid, the organization can never gain stability without some leadership at the front, and nobody is going to buy into a plan that has a different spokesperson every year... doesn't make it sound like a very good plan.

Congratulations Ross Detwiler

Nobody likes to finish the season with an 0-fer. And it is particularly no fair to pitcher inserted way over his head and expected to win games. During a particularly rough holiday weekend game against my fiance assessed Detwiler's abilities as, "This guy stinks. Why don't they bring in a reliever?", "Nobody is going to swing at that crap.", and "Hey, that guy hits and runs pretty well... maybe he should play in the field..." Yeah, not exactly glowing praise for the 23 year-old. Fortunately, Ross got a chance to go back to Syracuse and fine tune some pitches.

While the data from Monday's game were not pretty, he is turning in better results. Since coming back up, his WPA has been in the ballpark of 0.00 or better in each of his four appearances. His pitches still tend to be inconsistent, and he doesn't get nearly enough first pitch strikes, but here are a few reasons to be excited.

* Stellar, consistent numbers reflected in AA, AAA, then September numbers. The best way to interpret his first stint is to believe that he was overthrowing to beat major league hitters.

* Stronger 4-seam fastball velocity. He has been holding low 90's this month (after a decent innings load), touching 93/94. Earlier, he was mostly right around 90.

* Three and a half distinct pitches. His curveball, while mostly out of the zone, is much sharper, and his release point when throwing it is now almost spot on. I'm not sure what the hell this crap is, but it seems to diminish it's consistency.


* His line drive percentage is right at 25%, well above the league average. As a decent ground ball and strike out pitcher, he will likely see this number regress toward the league average, resulting in fewer hits.

* He's still just 24 on Opening Day.

* He is healthy and ends the season on a positive note.

Detwiler will likely be given a fair shot to win one of the rotation spots vacated by the likes of Olsen, Zimmermann, and hopefully Livan Hernandez, and odds are that unless he stinks up the spring training facility, he will win one of them. Maybe he will progress similar to Mark Mulder, forced into the rotation a year early, but benefited from the beatings.