Second-to-Last Update

I feel that on Sunday morning, we will probably know all we need to know other than a couple seedings.  Nova is the #1 overall, Gonzaga cannot lose Top 4 ranking with Kansas, Louisville, Baylor dead and UNC/Duke squaring off.  UCLA could bump Oregon from the 2 west spot... PAC-12 has a lot at stake.  Kentucky looks safe as a 2.  SMU grabs the final 4 seed for now, but get shipped to Milwaukee.  They may want to lose just to stay in the south/west and not have to play the Big 10 in a midwest location.

Teams in trouble: Syracuse, USC, URI
Late surges and varying strengths of wins doom these three.  Syracuse can't win away, USC can't beat the top 50, and URI can't stop losing to bad teams.  Kansas State, despite their slide, does what all three of these teams do not.

Probably safe, but definitely holding their breath as autobids are determined: Providence, Illinois State
The Friars, well, just aren't very good.  The did, however, take advantage of the hand they were dealt and won several more games than they should have.  The really needed to drop that depleted Creighton team again to assure passage.  The Redbirds, despite the schedule, flat out bring a better team to the table than any of the teams in trouble, and will present terrible matchup problems for whoever draws them.  If they get St. Mary's or UVA, first to 46 wins.

Teams that are safe: Vanderbilt, Xavier, Wake Forest
These teams actually look capable of of second weekend runs.

Teams with work to do: California, Georgia, TCU, Houston, Indiana
Cal probably bumps USC with a run to the PAC-12 title game.  I can't see this conference getting 5 teams as top heavy as it is.  Georgia may get an injury pass if they can run to the SEC title game with another big win.  TCU and Indiana are way behind the 8-ball, but the Hoosiers can point to November and March and make a case.  TCU needs to win it all.  Not sure how Houston, despite being right on the cut line, can leapfrog their way in without snatching the autobid in the process

Total Wildcard: Nevada
If the do not get the autobid, they will still sit right at 40 or so on all the major rankings, 10-30 spots ahead of many of these teams, same situation as URI and ISU.  I can totally see the committee ignoring a down year in the MWC and opting for the tradition of a multi-bid conference.

As always, this bracket will self destruct in 5 seconds.

Rapid Bracket Analysis- 2 MAR

Well, Xavier is still an NCAA-eligible team that will be considered by the committee, but I cannot imagine them looking past the fork sticking out of their back.  With so much praise being heaped on how well Carrington and Delgado are playing for Seton Hall, Marquette's unconscious shooting, and Providence's... ability to play 40 minutes better than the other team, Xavier has no buzz, and beating DePaul by 50 twice is not going to change that.  They beat Butler, then we can talk about them getting their 10 seed back.  Seton Hall is in the best shape to sneak in instead, but last night belonged to the Demon Deacon's (and Northwestern, but different level of the bubble).  The committee will want an excuse to get some good airtime for one of the top big men in the country, so the play-in game is fitting.  The bracket shifts 5 seeds to accommodate the extra ACC team, with UVA going to the South and SMU heading west.  Houston jumps over to the 12 line to grab Syracuse, while Providence gets Wake.  URI is the big beneficiary, riding into a bye on the 11 line, and 7 seeds Creighton and Dayton flop regions to balance the A-10 and Big East teams.

One other bracketing note.  As the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East crowd the field, all attempts to avoid conference rematches will be taken.  Region semifinals are the earliest they can meet, but in these cases, I have aligned lower seeded teams (i.e. 12 Syracuse, 9 Miami; 10 MSU, 11 Northwestern) basically requiring upsets to occur to make it happen.  Favorites should be expected to play through the rest of the country.  The closest instance I have is 1 UNC and 5 UVA... and that is the conference finals, and would be fun again.