Rapid Bracket Analysis- 2 MAR

Well, Xavier is still an NCAA-eligible team that will be considered by the committee, but I cannot imagine them looking past the fork sticking out of their back.  With so much praise being heaped on how well Carrington and Delgado are playing for Seton Hall, Marquette's unconscious shooting, and Providence's... ability to play 40 minutes better than the other team, Xavier has no buzz, and beating DePaul by 50 twice is not going to change that.  They beat Butler, then we can talk about them getting their 10 seed back.  Seton Hall is in the best shape to sneak in instead, but last night belonged to the Demon Deacon's (and Northwestern, but different level of the bubble).  The committee will want an excuse to get some good airtime for one of the top big men in the country, so the play-in game is fitting.  The bracket shifts 5 seeds to accommodate the extra ACC team, with UVA going to the South and SMU heading west.  Houston jumps over to the 12 line to grab Syracuse, while Providence gets Wake.  URI is the big beneficiary, riding into a bye on the 11 line, and 7 seeds Creighton and Dayton flop regions to balance the A-10 and Big East teams.

One other bracketing note.  As the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East crowd the field, all attempts to avoid conference rematches will be taken.  Region semifinals are the earliest they can meet, but in these cases, I have aligned lower seeded teams (i.e. 12 Syracuse, 9 Miami; 10 MSU, 11 Northwestern) basically requiring upsets to occur to make it happen.  Favorites should be expected to play through the rest of the country.  The closest instance I have is 1 UNC and 5 UVA... and that is the conference finals, and would be fun again.

NCAA notes by conference

Once the league season has taken shape, sometimes it helps to take a step back and look at the standings as a whole to see where the major battle lines have been drawn.  Usually, it is pretty easy to see who is a real contender based on the combination of non-conference and conference results.  Some teams seem to hit the wall every year (Clemson) while others drag ass early and then find their way (Georgetown, Michigan State).  With only 10 conferences really pushing for multiple bids, this is the softest bubble in years for these sub-.500 layabouts to take advantage of.  Here is a very rough sketch of the conference breakdown:

22 1 bids (with a couple with the potential to be two, but unlikely)

Big 10: top 5, 2 fringe

ACC: top 9, 2 fringe

Big 12: top 7, 1 fringe

AAC: top 2, 1 fringe

A-10: top 2, 1 fringe

Big East: top 4, 4 fringe

PAC 12: top 5, 1 fringe

SEC: top 3, 2 fringe

WCC: top 2

MVC: top 2

CAA: 1 fringe

OVC: 1 fringe

MWC: 2 fringe

MAC: 1 fringe

MAAC: 1 fringe

HC: 1 fringe

C-USA: 1 fringe

AE: 1 fringe

That means as of today, 63 of the 68 spots are more or less comfortably owned by a team that performed above its leagues median line.  There are a couple riskier interlopers (Syracuse, USC, TCU, MSU, the MVC) that are really a bad loss from turning their RPI upside down, but right now are high enough in their leagues respectfully.  And it's possible for Saint John's to finish in the top half of the league and still have no shot at an at large.

The fringe teams are the one who have compiled a fair at-large profile, but are buried with league losses and need to win their way in.  Obviously, 3 CAA losses is much worse than 9 ACC losses.  These fringe teams should feel that they either need a strong league finish to push ahead of the those teams above them, or compete against the other 23 teams for these 5 spots.  Sure, it helps to win the autobid to take the 3rd party out of the decision process, and all of these mid-majors should feel like that is the only way.  These teams are Wilmington (losing to Elon killed their at-large profile), Belmont (ditto their first league loss), Boise State and Nevada out of the MWC, Akron, Monmouth, Valpo, Middle Tennessee State (who far and away has the best at-large shot), and Vermont (who right now would have the second best shot if they ran the table and dumped to somebody in the AE final).

On the other hand, Michigan, Michigan State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Texas Tech, Houston, URI, Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence, Georgetown, Utah, Arkansas, and Alabama have to feel that one or two more losses really hurts their chances.  Doing the "Team A/Team B" blind comparisons will lead to the major conference teams that have more opportunities to do damage; like Wake being 1-8 against the Top 50... just reeks of NIT despite the gaudy RPI... look up Southwest Missouri State 2004 if you want to see how a good RPI can get you snubbed... the Deacs would be in better shape if they dropped the NC State game but beat Syracuse.

I'll be generating new numbers today, but will take a couple days to get the bracket seeded... had to paint the house this weekend.